2NL GG FR 200bb deep + ante - 55 on 659r
GG Poker - $0.02 Ante $0.01 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 216 BB (VPIP: 57.89, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (UTG+1): 271 BB
9 players post ante of 0.5 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 6 BB) Hero has 5♠ 5♥
fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, BB calls 3 BB
Flop: (20.5 BB, 4 players) 6♦ 5♣ 9♠
SB checks, BB bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 22 BB, fold, SB calls 22 BB, fold
Turn: (69.5 BB, 2 players) K♣
SB checks, Hero bets 38.5 BB, SB raises to 92 BB, Hero raises to 244.5 BB and is all-in
5 Replies
Easy jam once he raises turn, you’re way ahead of his range at 2NL.
Guessing you got stacked... and wondering if gii here with third set is more profitable than overfolding long term.
I thnk the key to deepstack is learning to re-evaluate nut combos quickly as the pot intensifies. So here, ott we have shown a LOT of strength up to this point and when we get raised the value of our set diminishes dramatically. He's asking if we can beat a straight or 99 or wild KK and he almost certainly wants to play for 200bb.
Without a read, i'd consider slightly overfolding could be the best longterm EV. I assume calling is profitable too, and mandatory vs some fish, because then we can outdraw the straight and maybe catch enough EV from the small amount of bluffs that do this and blast any river. But as a rule, playing 200bb very very nittily vs extreme aggression, a.k.a. fold sets in face-up situations. Or being very conscious of SPR and how quickly value can disappear, is going to pay off better than 'Ah i'm nearly at the top of my range, must lose stack no matter what cos deep' and that kind of doomsday thinking.
The key to this spot would be player profiling. Minus reads I think it's fine to overfold. It's also fine to rat-hole if you find losing too many big stacks demoralising. If I'm still scouting out an environment or downswinging I do this often. Deeper stacks = more stress. Less stress = higher WR
At this stack depth, unless SB is a maniac, this seems to me a straightforward turn fold after we face the raise.
This isn’t such a great spot being over 200bb deep. Yeah we’re going to see random hands from time to time but I’m not sure I’m exactly fist pump getting my money in here.
Tough spot I guess? Can I see myself folding? Maybe.. but more often I’m gonna be claiming poker is rigged etc .. would be interesting to see what others think but I think I could just about fold and not feel too badly about it..
But then again that feels way too nitty when you consider the average 2nl drooler
It sounds crazy, but if you put him on sets and a straight only - then you are virtually dead. So the only question is if he can x/r bluff here often enough to justify calling, but then what are you gonna do on a blank river...
Equity Win Tie
MP2 10.45% 10.45% 0.00% 5h5s
MP3 89.55% 89.55% 0.00% 99, 66, 87s
//edit: I can see this guy is 58/5 after 19 hands, low sample size, but looks fishy to me. Downside is, he can now have even more combos of 87, but also some two pair, like K9, 65, 95s. Even if I give him all the 76 and K9 - you now have 38.5%, which is much better. There is a possible FD too. I think against this player I would probably call IP (pot odds: roughly 22%, considering rake) and river...eh, it all depends on what we think he does this with. If there is any chance for overplayed K9 or combo draw like 9c8c / 7c6c - you will get roughly 33.33% on the river.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% 5h5s
MP3 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% 99, 66, K9s, 87s, 65s, 9c8c, 7c6c, K9o, 87o
