PAHWM: QJs in wonderland
1/3 NLHE 7 handed (2 players walking).
Table
We've been having a difficult session and are finally getting slowly back on
We can narrow his range really well with the UTG raise from a tight player and the overbet on the flop.
He’s supposed to be strong, yes. But how strong is strong? Is his range just AA/JJ/AJ? Is AK there too (meaning also AK with a heart redraw)? Does he ever have KThh? How about AQ? The farther down we go the less implied odds we can count on having if we hit our heart. But the narrower the range is, the less likely we are good if we hit 2 pair or trips.
This is a bad problem to have especially out of position against a good player.
Just a small thing, but the pot is $25 so $30 isn’t as much of an over bet as first suggested.
Anyways, as others have said, if we’re calling pre then we really can’t fold flop.
Can we get paid on a heart turn?
We can narrow his range really well with the UTG raise from a tight player and the overbet on the flop.
I don't know if this is true, but maybe a solver person can chime in with what a solver does. V has clear range and nut advantage though that could change on a flush or Broadway turn.
Overbet here ($30 into $21 post rake) seems like AA (3), JJ (1 combo), AJ (6), KhTh (1). Also some AK, AQ, maybe KhKx, QQ, or a few pocket pairs firing one barrel as a bluff (TT-88).
I agree with call flop but this feels like it could be turning into quicksand.
Pre is fine, but fold is fine, too.
Flop is an auto call, but not sure if we'll get paid if a heart comes, unfortunately.
I don't know if this is true, but maybe a solver person can chime in with what a solver does. V has clear range and nut advantage though that could change on a flush or Broadway turn.
Any solve requires making some pretty sketchy assumptions about ranges pre, especially what Banana is going to defend the BB with. A solver is opening and defending much tighter for a 4x sizing (and IIRC rarely if ever flatting) than any real live player, but it's also unlikely most will defend the BB anything like the range which defends a proper 2x EP open.
Regardless, flops often feature size mixing with many combos but the overall shape of including an overbet on this flop (which is used because it does favor PFR so much) is to mix in an overbet size primarily with TPTK+ and Broadway draws. The stronger the BB defend range, the less the overbet is used.
Basically any heart draw is an easy call (and occasional x/r) in solver-land, but it's much less clear that this applies to reality because in general it's very rare for live players to come even close to solver bluffing frequencies when the bluffs draw from a carefully quantified number of low-equity draw type hands. Most often a live player significantly underbluffs a board like this, or sometime you have a LAG who way overbluffs when, lacking "obvious bluffs", ends up implicitly choosing "all the combos" to bluff with.
Even though it is a small open and we have a pretty hand with decent stacks, there is no dead money in the pot, no ez money players trapped in the hand, and we'll be OOP to a winning player who opened in EP against a table of ez money in a raked game. Highly doubt continuing here is profitable (at least, for me).
ETA (i.e. flop): Facing this large cbet in a huge SPR of 24, I think I would just passively check/call. At much smaller SPRs where the money in the pot relative to stacks is worth fighting for we can get more aggressive. But here the stacks behind are much more valuable and this guy seems to love his hand so far. Also love how we flopped the world and yet life still kinda sucks (i.e. not buying that preflop is profitable).
ETA#2 (post grunch): Vernon is probably a lot closer than people realize would be my guess. Love how the only way we make money in this hand is when our opponent hits a set, we bink a flush facing a 1.5x bet ("pot odds", lol @ math), and he doesn't boat up. And meanwhile every time we make trips or a two pear or a flush that isn't good we magically don't lose money, all navigating perfectly OOP against a +EV player, in a pot that has already had 1/6th of it go to the casino (i.e. not buying that preflop is profitable).
GbutI'magiantnitpatientlywaitingforAA/KKG
interestingly at 4x open with high rake it would be a fold pre. i cannot imagine a world where i would ever play poker if that was the case though.
i dont think you should post the pot post rake when you do the hh's. i think it impacts post strategy quite a bit re bet sizing from villains.
hand is indifferent leaning towards raise in solver. really is a pain if you don't just post the entire hh at once at least if you want feedback from me
Whatever a solver says, raising flop is really bad, because if he has a set he can 3! and you don't want to gii 30% to win against AA. This raise from the tight player UTG and the large cbet imply he has a set or top two pair a lot.
It doesn't matter that much that the pot is reduced for the rake. He still overbet the pot.
how u always have such strong incorrect opinions lol
Me? You are 29% against AA and 35% against AJ. Are you stacking off here of raise/folding the flop? Raising with a combo draw is reasonable in general, but not here when villain is representing a strong range.
The solver is not giving enough weight to bet sizing tells, etc.
Me? You are 29% against AA and 35% against AJ. Are you stacking off here of raise/folding the flop? Raising with a combo draw is reasonable in general, but not here when villain is representing a strong range.
The solver is not giving enough weight to bet sizing tells, etc.
this is going to sound more flippant than i intend it to but its quite literally guy who has never looked at a solver explaining why they're wrong and his 1/2 intuition is absolute truth
this is going to sound more flippant than i intend it to but its quite literally guy who has never looked at a solver explaining why they're wrong and his 1/2 intuition is absolute truth
Personal attacks are good when you can't answer my arguments, so you resort to a personal attack on totally false assumptions, which I will not answer. I don't want to discuss my experience or results or what I have studied.
You are probably some fish who goes by solver outputs and ICM software without adjusting for the situation.
Solvers don't even work in most 1/3 situations. Here we have a HU pot, so you can try applying it. There are obvious reads that villain has a strong range which the software does not consider.
You have a read villain has a strong range, so you don't want to raise/fold or gii. It is much better to use that read to extract when you are ahead and fold when you are beat.
you dont really have any arguments. nearly all of your posts are just you saying something that's generalized and mostly incorrect and unilaterally declaring it true. you have >100 threads started on here, the vast majority of which are 1/2 hhs. i dont really care what you play or what your skill level is, but come on man.
cring this flop vs an utg range is foolish. i guess you could fold out KK assuming that even bets the flop. otherwise it seems like a good way to get owned.
This article about blindly following software, driving into water following a GPS, reminds me of our GTO guru stacking off versus a set following some interpretation of solver output.
From the HH KQ hand: Anyone who thinks a true maniac is folding 67sooooted preflop to some solver 3bet in a wild 1-3 game has never played with one. They don’t drive all that way to fold, and they know the nits always 3bet with poop like KQ to try and make them fold out of multi way
Folding might cost ‘em the high hand bonus, or even the jackpot!
Me? You are 29% against AA and 35% against AJ. Are you stacking off here of raise/folding the flop? Raising with a combo draw is reasonable in general, but not here when villain is representing a strong range.
What about vs. AK/AQ, or KKh/QQh trying to do whatever (yeh, SB's live reads are entertaining but I'm _not_ assuming V never bets big with hands that shouldn't).
V doesn't need many random "I was card dead for a bit at a great game and then saw Th9h/Kh9h/whatever UTG" to balance 3 combos. of AA.
I think the post rake pot size is giving you timing tells. Pot is 12 + 12 + 1 ... Wouldn't be shocked to see people bet 30 into 25 with a range a lot wider than 4th nuts or better.
Also the one time I've seen population overbet stupid ranges is when it's a small pot at 1-2/1-3. So would be very sus of any reads based on overbets, without actually reads on this V.
The fact the flop is A high is the main reason I'd lean away from x/r, then the SPR being like 20x ... the flop bet size is maybe 10% of the reason I'd probably call.
But OOP I still don't hate it, we have a lot of equity and will likely underrealize by calling. It's been a great game getting all in or getting a fold from better is almost guaranteed to make the game even better.
Jesus, wtf is everyone on in this thread
flat pre, never a fold.
flop is also a call. board favours his range but we can and should be calling with a ton of hands here, so we are nicely disguised
Right? Came here to say this. If you're folding premium SCs pre to a 4x open against good players, you may as well just quit. Playing good players is part of the game. Raising or folding the flop is also completely insane.
I love you all, btw. Just this thread that's crazy.
Any solve requires making some pretty sketchy assumptions about ranges pre, especially what Banana is going to defend the BB with. A solver is opening and defending much tighter for a 4x sizing (and IIRC rarely if ever flatting) than any real live player, but it's also unlikely most will defend the BB anything like the range which defends a proper 2x EP open.Regardless, flops
in the effort of being productive, i mostly agree w this post but i think this is a board where V is easily going to be able to overdo it on this size. i either used 3x cev or 2.5x high rake 8 handed but the range for ip to use this size is unintuitively small (AK is nearly pure checking). its not really a size that solver is going to prefer here, as noted this is much of a LP type sizing because of how constricted ranges are and how quickly OOP is going to get filtered down to 2p+.
i dont really see anything in OP to suggest v is a nit, if anything the description is more or less the opposite. would also guess you only see flop overbets in most pools from the very best and very worst, and this villain seems to fit into the first bucket. the solve is unintuitive but makes sense to me when i look at it - its almost similar to call 3b oop where you see it c/ring some marginal hands depolarized and folding them vs v continues
qjhh is one of the hands where frequency will depend very much on v's 3bet sizing - if i trend it towards all in this will raise signif less often which makes sense (suffers significantly and likely has to fold). also really really likes small x/r as the sizing which i guess makes sense too given how polar v is supposed to be - i question if this is reality.
Villain can have AK/AQ, which you are flipping against on the flop. However, whether it was 30 into 25 or 30 into 20, he overbet the pot. The thing is you probably have to fold to a 3! on the flop, and I wouldn't want to do that with such a strong hand.
I mean, given all the folds people are suggesting here, villain is PRINTING if he’s betting this size with all his pocket pairs and all his whiffs
ETA#2 (post grunch): Vernon is probably a lot closer than people realize would be my guess. Love how the only way we make money in this hand is when our opponent hits a set, we bink a flush facing a 1.5x bet ("pot odds", lol @ math), and he doesn't boat up. And meanwhile every time we make trips or a two pear or a flush that isn't good we magically don't lose money, all navig
but gg the flip side is also true reading people's posts. 'Villain only has two pair or a set and won't pay us off if the flush comes in'
sorry about the Blue Jays by the way.
I mean, given all the folds people are suggesting here, villain is PRINTING if he’s betting this size with all his pocket pairs and all his whiffs
this isnt really true
bb is already indifferent vs this size w at / aq / ak !h otf in the sim im looking at, ranges are just too narrow
theres just no real point for him to use the large size here
even if i widen bb from 7 - 10% of hands, it doesn't really change that bb is folding a ton of objectively strong hands (including AK no h) to a single bet at equilibrium. relevant because he isn't exploiting us necessarily by doing this (the hands he's cbetting will still have comparable ev in the check back line)
