AQo x/r and bomb vs thinking fish

fair enough, so that probably removes air from the equation, but any pair and any decent draw is probably going to stab.

folding flop is criminal

Grunch:

PRE - meh. I could go either way between RFI'ing and limp-raising when the BTN straddle is on. Size looks fine.

FLOP - meh. I could go either way between c-betting small and checking to check-call. Not sure why we're x/r'ing here. I'd rather make a delayed c-bet if it checks through.

TURN - I don't understand the jam. Seems like V has a hand he likes when he calls flop. Maybe we're folding out some Tx type hands, but I wouldn't expect this to get through often enough.

Only as a side-note, I'm amazed how often low stakes recs overlook the obvious draws that come in when they have TP+.

how often do you think it needs to get through ott given sizing and our equity?
how often does v have a flush?
how often does v have one pair?
how often do you think he continues with one pair?
how often does he have something like kq / q9 / 98 / AQ / AK himself?

Fair questions.

Doing the math in my head, the way I'd be doing it at the table, I'd think we'd need this to get through around 30% of the time, maybe 33%-35%.

When V stabs flop for around 1/2 pot and calls the x/r from the PFR, my best guess at his range is TPTK for value, and a lot of draws.

I think the real question is how often V folds to the turn jam after stabbing 1/2 pot on the flop and calling the x/r.

I don't think this gets through often enough. At least some of the hands he'll fold to the turn jam were already folded on the flop. Maybe most of those hands.

So, if we need V to fold around 30%-35% of the time, my best guess is he maybe folds 10%-20% of the time, which isn't enough.

i think thats poor ranging

Care to elaborate? How are you ranging him?

Maybe this is a faulty heuristic, but in general, I think when the PFR x/r's the flop and jams turn it's a credible line for value when the flop is wet / dynamic and the turn is a brick, but when the turn completes a lot of obvious draws, it's problematic, because our opponents could have the hands we're trying to rep, or may just think we're FOS when many of the hands we'd x/r on the flop hate the turn card.

Like, hero opened from EP and x/r'd the JT3 two-tone flop. He's repping TT, JJ, and over-pairs. When V flat calls, his range is going to have a lot of draws and hands that block some of hero's strong hands, like AJ. He's probably not flatting pre, stabbing flop, and calling the x/r with a lot of air or two un-paired over-cards.

Hero probably isn't taking this line with many, if any hands that improve on this turn. So I think a lot of low-stakes V's will level themselves into calling this jam with a lot of hands that make it to the turn, because they improved, or they just don't believe the story hero is telling.

he probably folds ~40% of the time ott

try all of my questions

Why would I answer all your questions when you won't answer one of mine?

Result:

Loose [x]
Passive [x]
Straightforward [x]
Scared [ ]

Loved this his hand, Banana. Next time I hope you bink a club.

If V bets flops with a draw to the second nuts three way, I would guess V is neither scared money nor passive.

I guess that wasn't part of the 40%.

Standard bet.

OP was actually 61% on the flop and 16% on the turn.

Standard for an ABC V heads up. But three way, passive scared money takes the free card, always. Even regulars don’t bet their flush draws three way.

So then OP’s description of V is completely wrong?

Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. I love Banana’s posts. Please keep them coming. I just felt like the hand history had some misdirection that explains the disagreement in the thread.