Did you watch World Series Game 7? BG experts would see Toronto's 11th inning bunt blunder

They handed LA an egregiously efficient double...killing two Blue Jays with one ground ball.
At tie score you might bunt the runner over to 3rd base, but down a run it's a suicidal squeeze.

With no outs runner on 2nd the Dodgers really don't want to put the winning run on base. The double play is still terrible for the Jays- especially with a force at 3rd- but at least they are still in the game with the tying run in scoring position (the late great Rickey Henderson could score from 2nd on a double play). Now the bunt with 2 men on puts the winning run in scoring position. LA can't walk the bases loaded because a wild pitch or walk ties the game, so it also takes away the double play. And a wild throw to first is disaster- tie game, 2nd and 3rd no out- so the fielder may not even risk throwing if the bunt is perfect.

That means with no outs the batter will get fastballs to sit on... a wild pitch is better for the home team than a bunt. A home run wins; a long ball or anything to the right side gets the runner to third anyway. But he forfeited the edge by bunting. To top it off, the pitcher had just given up a smash double and had started Game 6, so taking pitches wouldn't be a bad idea (he had hit a batter in the 10th).

But with one out, man on third, they can - and did- pitch around the next hitter, walking him on 4 pitches. AND THEN the next batter - the slow catcher- must not strike out. That defeats the bunt. But there is still a base open, so the walk is not disaster for the team in the field. They don't like it, but it sets up a force at home. They can risk throwing breaking balls because the strikeout and the ground ball are so valuable. Worst of both worlds for Toronto, and the dice played out accordingly.

I knew it in real time- I have no use for hindsight. First and third one out typically presents a quandary for the defense. Early in the game you can concede the run trying for the double play- you want to avoid a big inning. At tie score bottom of the 9th you must bring the outfield in. But a curveball in the dirt can also lose the game, or a classic suicide squeeze. Getting the 2nd out without completing the DP does nothing for you if you don't hold the runner. The offense can take more chances- delayed double steal... running on 3-2 to stay out of the DP...
So not bringing the infield in carries huge risk.

Up a run the 2nd out is very useful even when they score. You can leave your outfield back and throw nasty curveballs with 2 strikes because the batter must protect the plate. But mainly the DP is so efficient it's always worth the risk of setting up your infield for maximum chances. You can still go home if it's an easy tag play, but the runner can't get cute as he might try when representing the winning run on 3rd. A bad squeeze bunt is disaster for the trailer- at tie game it's just a gamble that missed.

When you forego the bunt and fail to get on base or advance the runner, you are in much worse shape...but far from finished. You have a runner in scoring position and no double play risk. Two bites at the apple. On the ground ball up the middle you at least advance to 3rd and can tie the game on wild pitches, passed balls, infield hits, errors, etc. The semi-intentional walk giving you first and second does less for them- a wild throw to first trying for the double play now ties the game- with first and third it's tied already. They may do it anyway to set up a force at 2nd and 3rd...but now a walk or HBP to load up the bases with 1 out is a huge blunder, so most of the time they will pitch to you. The force at third for the second out doesn't do all that much for them, outside of the wild pitches. 3 and 2 with 2 outs you can send the runner from first and score on a double.

On the "intangibles", your hitter just slammed a double off an overworked pitcher. It's no stereotyping to note that every MLB pitcher from Japan has been an excellent fielder- and in the event he handled a very good bunt with no concern. He doesn't want to walk you, but he can't give up a home run. Give him a chance to get behind in the count, throw a wild pitch, or hit you. Get on base and the home crowd goes nuts. Finally, the sac fly after the bunt only wins you half a game- you are not home yet.

05 November 2025 at 03:38 AM
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