Playing sets on monotone flops
1/2/3
I have about 430, v is loose passive and covers.
V limps, nit limps, I raise black sevens in high jack to 20, co calls, short stack(100) in btn calls, v calls nit calls.
Flop is 6710ddd,
Checks to btn, who bets half her stack of 70. V raises to 80, everyone folds.
was thinking i can only raise, but then given it was a shortstack, i could have cold called? feel like my play mightve been too nitty, but i froze and defaulted to giving V a lot of respect with the x/r
13 Replies
i like the fold. btn is probably going to go all in and someone loose passive would probably shove at that point.
1/2/3I have about 430, v is loose passive and covers. V limps, nit limps, I raise black sevens in high jack to 20, co calls, short stack(100) in btn calls, v calls nit calls. Flop is 6710ddd, Checks to btn, who bets half her stack of 70. V raises to 80, everyone folds.was thinking i can only raise, but then given it was a shortstack, i could have cold called? feel like my play
If I understand the action correctly, the raise of $80 over the bet of $35 means that if BTN sticks in the remaining $35 the betting isn't reopened. If that's correct, it looks like the pot would be $250 and you'd have to call $80, with $330 remaining, making for 7.25:1 implied odds.
I think that means we only need around a 12% chance of filling up on the turn, and we're going to do that around 14% of the time, so I'd probably call, even assuming we're behind flopped flushes.
If we think V is ever raising with a draw, especially if we think the BTN is on the same draw, we're actually way ahead, making it more of a mandatory call.
If I understand the action correctly, the raise of $80 over the bet of $35 means that if BTN sticks in the remaining $35 the betting isn't reopened. If that's correct, it looks like the pot would be $250 and you'd have to call $80, with $330 remaining, making for 7.25:1 implied odds. I think that means we only need around a 12% chance of filling up on the turn, and we're going
yup this sounds about right - i have 14 % over his flopped flushes - i could argue he would be flatting flushes and straights, and doing a silly re-raise with TPTK
how did you arrive at 1:7.25 implied odds?looks like 80/(250 + 330)? ill probably have to study how to calculate implied odds, do you have any pointers?
. cold call flop and evaluate on turn
i like the fold. btn is probably going to go all in and someone loose passive would probably shove at that point.
I might have the amounts wrong, but BU shove is only going to be a call here. Agreed they're shoving. (Edit, what Doc said.)
H, call. See another card. You still have boat outs. I don't see any merit to shoving: H doesn't have odds (I think), V has the flush and they ain't folding.
Hey OP, welcome to the forum. Thanks for your post.
It’s hard to follow your hand history. Give positions and stack sizes of both Vs. Give pot size on each street. Rake?
Why check your flopped set?
Hey OP, welcome to the forum. Thanks for your post.
It’s hard to follow your hand history. Give positions and stack sizes of both Vs. Give pot size on each street. Rake?
Why check your flopped set?
1/2/3 - rake is 7 any postflop (insane)
I have about 430, v is loose passive and covers. v2 has 100
V limps utg1,
nit limps utg2
H raise black sevens in high jack to 20,
co calls,
v2 in btn calls,
v calls
nit calls
pot 100
Flop is 6710ddd,
Checks to v2, who bets 35 . V raises to 80, everyone folds.
i checked because i had two behind me to act on a dynamic/wet board - but now that i think about it i usually do that to check raise. i can see a cbet here as well because i only have a high equity hand and not a nutty hand on this flop texture.
I x/c the raise and hope to fill up.
Not folding a set getting 4:1 when it is not even certain the villain has the flush.
1/2/3I have about 430, v is loose passive and covers. V limps, nit limps, I raise black sevens in high jack to 20, co calls, short stack(100) in btn calls, v calls nit calls. Flop is 6710ddd, Checks to btn, who bets half her stack of 70. V raises to 80, everyone folds.was thinking i can only raise, but then given it was a shortstack, i could have cold called? feel like my play
yup this sounds about right - i have 14 % over his flopped flushes - i could argue he would be flatting flushes and straights, and doing a silly re-raise with TPTK
how did you arrive at 1:7.25 implied odds?looks like 80/(250 + 330)? ill probably have to study how to calculate implied odds, do you have any pointers?
. cold call flop and evaluate on turn
You opened to $20 pre and got four calls, so the pot was $100 on the flop and you had $410 behind. Checks to BTN who bets $35 off $70, and V raises to $80.
Assuming BTN calls off for another $35, the pot will be $100 + V's $80 + BTN's $70 = $250, and if you call the $80 you'll have $330 left behind. So your implied odds are ($250 + $330) / $80, or 7.25 to 1.
You'd have to call $80 to potentially win $580 ($250+$330).
100 / 8.25 = 12.121212, or simply 12%. So to make this call profitable, you need to make your hand at least 12% of the time. Your flopped set has 7 outs to fill up on the turn, which will happen around 14% of the time (7 outs X 2 = rough estimate of the percentage of time we'll catch one of those 7 cards on the next card).
Why in the world did you check on the flop?
We can't just assume V has a flush. It isn't some crazy huge bet and could easily include hands with a naked Ad, or JJ with diamond. Folding is crazy nitty.
As for calling, ok, but what do we do OTT? Are we folding to a jam?
I'm not. And our odds are worse on brick turns, but we still have about 22% equity against a made flush and V could still have 2p, naked Ad, 66, or 88/99 one diamond that have a SF draw. And if V goes medium/medium we have raw odds forcing call on turn and kind of gross folding a set to a small river bet.
In short, if V is nutted, we are probably going to stick it in eventually.
TT is the only hand we are in super bad shape against. What if we rip it on the flop? Is V calling with TT? He should, but I've seen $1/$2 players fold. V is calling Ax flushes, but is he calling with QJdd? Lower flushes might fold, it certainly isn't an autocall with any flush below the nuts. Adx might call.
So it's a situation where jamming might get better to fold sometimes, get weaker to call sometimes, and we have ok equity against the hands that snap call. When the choice is to allow V to put us all in because we aren't getting away, or putting it in ourselves and making V make a tough decision - put the pressure on V.
calling is better than folding, but jamming is best IMO.
