English Football Season 2025-2026. Here we go again.
Welcome 2+2 to the English football season of 2025-2026.
This year I am going to make the thread officially for all of E
lol I needed a second Xhaka foul, thought I got it last seconds of the game but it's been settled as a loser
Both teams can't lose unfortunately so that is likely a correct assessment
loooooooooooooooooooool
The first penalty that wasn’t. I think it’s absurd that the player was booked there.
Whats the point when a City employee is on VAR.
City relatively good value for the lead to be fair
Seems like bad value to spend half a billion on attackers and only put up .71 xg against city.
Xhaka was great tbf. I did not think he can still be a midfield rock, but props for Sunderland, they recruited well.
I really enjoyed the game - we were a bit unlucky not to score a couple more in the 2nd half. Really bad runout from Raya at the equalizing goal. Hope we get at least 1 striker back after the international break.
Also it would be so Spursy if they found their footing against us of all teams, but how they have been really flaky with the ball going forward maybe I do not have to worry about that? Have to wait and see.
Which, incredibly, marvelously is here again.
Just looked it up, on understat our G - xG is 6.25, top of the prem by most than 2 LOL.
Was watching the highlights from this weekend last night ... that Arsenal/Sunderland game was great. Two amazing goals.
Sunderland is surprisingly fun this year.
Anybody following the Turkish betting scandal unfold? It's absolutely fascinating so far. First it was something like 150 refs accused of betting on games they are refereeing and now the Turkish Football Federation is going after more than 1000 players(not sure if all are active) for betting scandals including internationals.
I've always known Turkish football was shady as **** but this is next level.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Gunners/comment...
A summary of Paul Tomkins' research. Some of it is from 2019 onwards, some of it from 2015. The odds of all these anomalies happening randomly together are in the tens of millions to one.
Liverpool - Disadvantaged
• Liverpool receive the fewest penalties of any Premier League club since 2015 when adjusted for attacking touches in the box. Read that again.
• Their penalties-for per 1 000 penalty-area touches are roughly 4.0 for vs 7.6 against (net -3.6), ranking 24 of 27 clubs.
• Despite spending more time attacking in the opposition area than nearly anyone else, Liverpool's games-per-penalty ratio is among the highest (worst) in the league.
• Liverpool have the smallest positive VAR swing among top clubs (+2 overall 2019-2024).
• Their subjective VAR penalty decisions are negative (2 for - 3 against) while City have +9.
• VAR interventions in Liverpool's favour happen later in matches on average than those against them, indicating less timely correction of mistakes.
• Liverpool went over seven years without an opponent receiving a second-yellow red card in a match against them. Every other team saw this happen to their opponenets at least 5 times in that period. Liverpool's opponents zero second yellows over this timeframe is in the 1 in 1,200 to 1 in 27,000 chance range.
• Under certain referees (e.g., Coote, Atkinson, Tierney, Hooper), Liverpool's rate of favourable "big decisions" is consistently negative and their win rate falls below statistical expectation.
• In aggregate over eight seasons, Liverpool's deficit in big decisions vs expected equates to roughly 30 to 35 net incidents (~ -12 to 15 league points).
Manchester City - Favoured
• Manchester City have won ~38 % more penalties than Liverpool under Klopp despite scoring only ~16 % more goals overall.
• City and Liverpool have similar attacking metrics, yet City have about three times as many penalties.
• City's net VAR penalty balance is the league's best at +9 (10 for, 1 against).City players are rarely sent off in domestic competition; Michael Oliver has officiated ~50 City matches without a single City red card. There is a less than 0.1% chance that this could happen randomly over the same period as another team (Arsenal, funnily enough) getting 8 red cards from him.
• City frequently receive lenient treatment on fouls and yellow-to-red thresholds, maintaining 11 players in situations where others would be dismissed.
• City's "big decision" balance is consistently positive across all referees and seasons examined.
• Some refs (e.g., Anthony Taylor, Paul Tierney, Michael Oliver) show favourable outcomes for City and have no comparable negative anomalies.
• Combined penalty and VAR advantages give City an estimated +25 to +30 incident swing (+10-12 league points) over the same period, meaning a 55 - 65 incident swing vs Liverpool ( 22-27 league points). A reminder that two of City's titles were won by a single point.
Manchester United - Historically Favoured
• United top the league in net penalties per touch (+5.2 difference) and have the most positive "big decision" balance since 2015.
• They receive more penalties for, fewer against than any other major club.
• Under VAR, United saw many foul calls reversed against them (17 vs 5 for) but remain net positive over the long term.
• Certain referees from Greater Manchester areas statistically award more penalties and fewer cards to United than to visiting sides.
Arsenal - Moderately Disadvantaged *but severely disadvantaged from 2022-24 (surprise, once they rivalled City)
• Arsenal's penalty-touch ratio -1.8 ranks near the bottom half of the league (= 17th), implying fewer penalties than expected for their attacking volume.
• Michael Oliver has shown eight red cards to Arsenal players in ≈ 55 matches (no other top club comes close). Arsenal often record more cards and fouls than opponents in the same fixtures under identical referees.
Chelsea - Favoured
• Chelsea show a positive penalty differential (+3.5) in the 2015-21 data.
• They hold a net positive VAR swing (+5 to +6), similar to Manchester clubs.
Tottenham Hotspur - Slightly Disadvantaged / Neutral
• Spurs' data are roughly neutral but trend slightly negative in penalty frequency relative to possession and box touches.
• No sustained advantage is evident; they fall between Arsenal and City in overall benefit.
Summary of Club-Specific Effects
• Most favoured overall: Manchester City (since VAR) and Manchester United (historically).
• Moderately favoured: Chelsea.
• Neutral or slightly negative: Tottenham.
• Disadvantaged: Arsenal (but if you isolate 2022-23 onward, Arsenal move from "disadvantaged" to "severely disadvantaged" in subjective, outcome-swing decisions.
• Severely disadvantaged: Liverpool.
Together, these results outline a persistent directional bias favouring the Manchester clubs (especially City in the VAR era) and disadvantaging Liverpool more than any other elite side, along with Arsenal since 2022.
Now let me remind you that refs have worked for megabucks in the one country that is run by City's owners, with Mansour's brother being the president of the UAE league too.
Republic smashing Portugal and the second rate Ronaldo losing his mind is just beautiful
Manchester
