Turn A-high into bloof

Seems fine be will have the same hand often.

There are a fair number of other intuitive bluffs like KQs, QJs, 87s, 76s, so assuming you're seeing a flop with those I would bluff with them first as they lack showdown value and unblock the ace highs we're targeting for folds. I'm not sure how many of these types of hands you're seeing a flop with though given villain's nutted 3-bet range.

Given reads your bluff seems fine. Against better players though you'll want to be mindful of how many combos you're bluffing with as it's pretty easy to get out of line bluffing too much.

What better hands is Villain folding? You have the best hand here a lot and if he somehow checked back the flop with a pair he is never folding. The only good thing that can happen here is he folds a chop. Or maybe he hero calls with AQ and you get the sickest thin value of all time.

Grunch:

PRE - fine.

FLOP - fine.

TURN - I don't like the lead. We're not repping a much. He's going to call with any pair, and probably all his AK, and we'll be left wondering what to do on the river. If we bet again he's probably calling again and we're just torching.

I'd rather wait another beat, and go for a check raise when he stabs at it, which seems pretty likely if we check to him again. He's going to have a hard time hanging on with any hand that checks back the flop if we check rsise turn and barrel river.

RIVER - this isn't very credible. Maybe he folds out some AK and worse AX that we are ahead of, but doubtful he's folding JJ+.

Bottom line here is if our read is that his 3B range is nutted, we're toast against the portion of his range that clicks call call, and only getting him to fold out some chops and some slivers of worse hands we're already beating.

If we don't want to x/r turn, I'd rather just bluff catch by flatting turn and checking again on the river. We're going to win sometimes when he checks back, occasionally we'll improve to TPTK, and sometimes we might hero call if he bets small.

Like Dan wrote, I think you get hero'd here by just about every pair. I freely admit that I don't airball enough post in my play though, and am trying to learn how to incorporate it a bit more. Having the nut BD flush card seems like a good bomb turn opportunity, especially if the FD completes on river.

My first impulse was to fold pre, if V's 3! range is that tight. We're OOP, we often won't flop an A or K and we often get stacked when we do, if they're only 3! something like QQ+, AK, AQs or tighter. If deeper, I'd prefer continuing with something not strongly interacting with their range. But SPR on a call will only be 4-5: 1, which isn't great for those hands.

Then I thought, why not 180-200/f, which is probably what I'd do instead.

If we assume villain only 3bets JJ+,AK, and cbets all of his JJ+ leaving his turn range with AK then it looks good of course. If he has AJ or AQ and always bets the flop with JJ+, then we should consider vbetting the river for a smaller size. If he can check back JJ+ on the flop then of course this is terrible - just matters how he plays his range.

I limp in but that's me.

Not a great spot when a passive player with a nutted 3bet range 3bets a large open and we're OOP. Actually think this is a fold preflop due to horrible IO vs RIO in this situation.

Board isn't that drawy so I'm not convinced a flop checkback isn't nuttish. So I'd check to fold the turn. When he calls I'm done with the hand as it is unlikely he's floating AK and he can't even have AKss.

So we're obviously just attempting to get him off a chop with AK, right? For me, there's simply far too many better hands that decided to tricky check back the flop (a great play against anyone who will take that as an opportunity to spew, so good read by him, lol).

Ginb4hefoldsKKfaceup,ldoG

My thoughts in the hand - this guy is just super straightforward postflop. He's trying to improve his game so I can see him having some A9s ATo KTs K9s 88 type hands some of the time but he's mostly calling with those IP.

Once he checks back flop he never has an OP. Especially JJ or QQ he's betting 100% IP when checked to on this flop, he might trap with TT or 99 sometimes I think but my thought was he just has so much SDV or air. (This is the kind of player that keeps checking his SDV across multiple streets so he's not betting A9s on the turn for example for thin value). So I thought if it checks down I win sometimes but maybe lose or chop mostly. And my 6 outs to a pair might be live. So lets try to get him off JTs.

i think you're crazy if you expect jtss to fold on this runout with his line

you dont just want to run huge bluffs with your entire range, you have a ton of ev with this combo in the check line ott, you have bad suit to continue otr. idk man. think on brick 5 u are more likely to get called by worse than fold out better

i think geo sizing works better as a one street bluff (140? 145? ott)

honestly man 35/10/3 doesnt 3b a9ss or jtss ever let alone in these positions. think stats and reads are good but i am skeptical u understand the numbers u throw out here

If villain's 3betting range is tight, we can always shift AKo into our 4bet bluff range...calling 3bets OOP isn't ideal.

As played, it seems like we are trying to get AK to fold. If so, this seems fine.

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Result:

Not to be results oriented but other posters convinced me that the bluff is bad. He's pretty much always calling with better and folding worse. All we can hope to fold out is a chop. I'm also wondering now what kind of a sample we had as I wouldn't expect him to show up with what he had given his tight preflop 3-bet stat.

Yea he's just opening up and gaining confidence I guess. I didn't give him 5X. Never has 56s so 2 combos I figure?

So...I think it's time we addressed your reads and your situational awareness when amping up the aggression with bluffs.

If, let's say, V really is only 3B'ing a very strong range, we should know his over-pairs aren't folding turn if they check back on the flop for whatever reason. And if they don't fold turn, they're sure as $hlt not folding river when the board pairs and they can beat our counterfeited combos of T9 that might play this way, and of course beat all our missed draws.

If, on the other hand, our read is off, and V's 3B range is a bit wider, we still need to consider the board texture before we do this. Like, the board is so draw-heavy on the turn that V should be calling our donk with all his over-pairs, all his TP's, and probably a lot of his own draws.

Worth noting - your read was that his 3B range is nutted, and yet later on you reason that your line can make him fold JTs. How the actual f**k does he have JTs if he's 3B'ing a nutted range pre, AND checking back TP on this flop?

Why couldn't he be checking back flop with TT or 99, or QJss? We don't have to give him A5s to understand why this line isn't advisable.

If you're going to turn AK into a bluff, it's important to understand that we generate much more fold equity by check-raising than we do by donking on the turn. It's going to be hard for him to hang on with 1P or a draw when we check-raise. It's much easier for him to play defense and click call-call with TP or even 2nd pair when every draw bricks.

If you're going to turn AK into a bluff, do it when the board isn't so draw-heavy. Avoid doing this on two-flush boards and / or boards with a T and a 5 on them. Any board that is two-flush and also has a T and a 5 is going to be so draw-heavy that opponents aren't going to fold anywhere near as often as we need them to.

Would it have worked if the river was a 4?

Bottom pair is a hand that OP can reasonably expect to fold but it’s unlikely because a) don’t expect Villain to 3bet A5s given reads and b) A5 probably cbets the flop some of the time.

Also think there is some chance bottom pair hero calls here. The flush draw missed, the QJ and KQ straight draws missed, and OP surely has an aggressive image (which is warranted, given he is overbluffing this spot).

Every possible flush or straight draw missed, and then the board paired. It's really easy for hero to over-bluff in this scenario, which makes it easier for V to over-call.

When opponents check back the flop as the PFR, even if they're FOF, it doesn't necessarily mean they don't have anything. It can and often does mean that they've either got the board locked up and are slow playing, or they've got some SDV and are pot-controlling.

If V's range is comprised of super-thick value that's trapping, SDV that's pot-controlling, and whiffs, it doesn't make sense to donk turn, at least not huge. Maybe we can get away with a small donk, followed by a very big bet on flush-completing rivers, but even then, when the BDFD comes in, we're still going to get called sometimes.

We're better off checking, and seeing what V does. If he bets small, we can check-raise. If he bets big, we can just fold and cut our losses. When we check-raise, it doesn't need to be huge. V should fold all his air, a lot of his draws, and a good chunk of his SDV.

I understand that. Maybe you could understand that the goal was not to find out my read was wrong but what the correct action would be assuming my read was correct. This is how people positively contribute as opposed to saying something blithe.

Assuming your read is correct I think you fold pre-flop. He has told you roughly half his range dominates you or is identical to you and the other half is a slight favorite. Most of the obvious scare cards to a lower pair are the cards that hit us and it is much easier for us to lose our stack with our hand vs that range than double our stack.

Assuming your read was correct, check-calling or check-raising the turn is better than donking turn and jamming river when he calls.

Assuming your read might not be correct, check-calling or check-raising the turn is better than donking turn and jamming river when he calls.

Thinking about it more, your line probably works better if your read is NOT correct, if that means he's got some 66-88 in his 3B'ing range that folds. You're beating pretty much everything else that folds, and losing to everything that calls.

Grunch:

I would rather not double block the hand we're trying to get to fold and this is a really easy board to overbluff. Additionally, what is our value range that wants to go big/big on turn and rivers? Pretty damn narrow especially when we don't 4-bet pre. It might not matter against this opponent, but better ones will be able to sniff this out I think.