Flopped Set with TT in the BB vs. Calling Station
1/2. Rake+promo+tip is 6+3+1. Eight-handed, six calling stations. Mostly limping to the flop. When someone open bets, most hands go three- or four-way. Everyone is opening to 7. I tightened up my range and followed Javanewt’s advice: raise more preflop.
V1 (650), an eighty-four-year-old woman, a calling station VPIP 65/8/0 but also highly aware, used to play 7-card stud, social, glasses, gorgeous white hair, like my eight-grade math teacher. In this trashy New England city, she talks cheerfully in her Texas accent to a dirty twenty-four-year old wearing an "I love small titties" T-shirt. She has called limps with AQo. Her eight raises were small to 7. Over 100 hands, she has entered at least a dozen big pots multiway after calling. She has won two big pots with TPGK by calling idiot river-bluffs. I have not yet seen her make a big bet on the turn or river. Widowed with only fourteen years to 100, I imagine one has plenty of cash in her bankroll.
V2 (300) is a solid player. I have not yet seen him make an error over 50 hands. No three bets, but the table has mostly limped.
Hero (222) is playing super tight at 100BB, mucking K8s kinds of hands. I am opening every time to 10.
OTTH
V2 in the UTG opens 7. Two callers. V1 calls in CO. Folds to hero in BB. Hero with TcTh raises to 50. V2 and two callers fold. V1 calls.
Flop (119): TsKcJd
Hero?
22 Replies
Don’t need to re-invent the wheel here. Cbet the flop ($50 or less) and jam most turns.
What's the question? You flopped a set on a well connected board with like a 1.5 SPR. Like the guy above me just bet 40 or so and hope to stack the old bag
V2 in the UTG opens 7. Two callers. V1 calls in CO. Folds to hero in BB. Hero with TcTh raises to 50. V2 and two callers fold. V1 calls.
Flop (119): TsKcJd
Hero? Hero bets 50. V1 calls.
Turn (219): As
Hero? Hero checks. V pushes hero all in for 122. Hero?
V2 in the UTG opens 7. Two callers. V1 calls in CO. Folds to hero in BB. Hero with TcTh raises to 50. V2 and two callers fold. V1 calls.
Flop (119): TsKcJd
Hero? Hero bets 50. V1 calls.
Turn (219): As
Hero? Hero checks. V pushes hero all in for 122. Hero?
Kinda figured this was coming. I would call here. I think you see AK sometimes, plus you have solid equity against QX. I don't think this player type even has much QX, maybe just QQ and AQs. JJ is the only disaster, but I think that hand jams the flop pretty often.
Don't check. Shove the turn.
As played, you almost have odds to call if villain showed you a straight.
Shoving with bottom set on a tsunami flop will give you more time to concentrate on hair n’ titties imo
I recommend to study with equilab or similar tools to have a good understanding of how much equity you have vs a particular range if you dont know this then we are just gambling. Also train your ability to calculate fast potodds so how much eq you need to call.
here you see me giving villain a range of all AQs AQo , 2 combo QQ, 2 combo JJ , all KQo KQs QTs QJs so and villain only shoving 3 combos AK off. So from value perspective the worst szenario.
With this estimation we get to the break even point of 27% equity that we need here
So pretty easy call because as soon villain is fast playing a bit more preflop or vs your flop bet or she has just 1-2 combos more of ak or some AJ AT etc the call is printing. IF we dont do this type of work we are just guessing and gambling like i said i recommend it alot. It is not about getting the % perfectly exact rather after doing alot of spots your estimations get much closer to the actual % and your intuition gets very sharp.
2+2 never ceases to surprise me. I thought I played it wrong on all streets.
Mods:
Giova: please never post to my hand histories.
Results
Hero called. V showed QQ. Hero binked a J on the river.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but against the straight, hero's equity in the pot was 78 dollars. Based on my read--V plays transparently--I was 90 percent certain V had a Q.
Well done going bigger pre. Can't believe V flatted the first time and then flatted you. Gross. (I'm a 57 year old grandmother who flirts with dirty 24-year-olds (my husband is fine with it), and this would not have happened!)
I actually would have gone a little bigger on the draw-heavy flop, but $50 is OK. Turn is a sigh-call. Glad you binked!
Preflop 3bet size is debatable ... but you only got a single caller, so how bad can it be.
Flop+turn seem std. ... seriously doubt shoving turn is better than x/c. It's just a really bad card for you getting paid by worse. Maybe KsJs folds turn if you shove? Otherwise V probably plays close to perfect.
While it's not great for V to bluff or overvalue worse when you check, I think that's a lot more likely.
River is the only street that seems "wrong" from my recent casino experience. 😉
I think I'd actually just flat pre.
Would just jam the flop too.
Not folding as played.
I think I'd actually just flat pre.
Would just jam the flop too.
Not folding as played.
Yeah, that is exactly how I would play it.
I prefer flat preflop in a 1/2 game. There are advantages in playing it multiway partly for a set. You isolate out of position against stronger hands. Not surprising QQ flatted twice, particularly an older player and female. You generally have to fold to a 4!. It is also a disaster isolating OOP against QQ before we see the flop.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine. I might go a tad bigger, but $50 may be large enough in this game.
FLOP - I probably check and if she bets I just jam.
The problem with c-betting is that we're not deep enough to make her scared of calling off with her draws, we'll be pot committing ourselves, and she'll be getting good odds to call if we jam on a turn brick.
If we check and she checks back, that's fine, we can open jam the turn or run the same play again. Doubtful it'll get checked through twice.
Alternatively, I could see just open jamming the flop.
V2 in the UTG opens 7. Two callers. V1 calls in CO. Folds to hero in BB. Hero with TcTh raises to 50. V2 and two callers fold. V1 calls.
Flop (119): TsKcJd
Hero? Hero bets 50. V1 calls.
Turn (219): As
Hero? Hero checks. V pushes hero all in for 122. Hero?
Gross. But have to call. She probably has a Q, but we can still fill up, and occasionally she's over-playing 2P.
The river was so wrong I truly thought when I drove home: I should take the 444 out of my bankroll and put it into my kid’s college fund.
The river was so wrong I truly thought when I drove home: I should take the 444 out of my bankroll and put it into my kid’s college fund.
You mean you shove have shoved the river? You have to call the river as played, because you win often enough given pot odds. The results are not surprising. Occasionally, you are ahead and you could almost call if she showed you QQ.
I like the big 3! pf. Otherwise, we're really playing Tens solely for set value MW and OOP? Not a fan.
Flop like that hits, any other player type that opens UTG, x-ship. SPR is really low, we can wait a street to get it in, UTG should bet this for us. She instead seems like she's happy to call off big bets fired into her tight range, but won't do it for you, so I open ship. Honestly expecting to lose set over set a lot of the time. Nice hand---even though you didn't have exact odds to call, she only has to have a non-Q a small part of the time---and isn't it nice to be on the binking side for a change?
(I'm a 57 year old grandmother who flirts with dirty 24-year-olds (my husband is fine with it), and this would not have happened!)
Even though it shouldn't, this reveal surprised me.
I just naturally assume everyone here is some degen dude like me.
Trust me, I'm more of a dude than a grandmother 😉 I'd be a degen if I weren't married to a man with three kids, one of whom has a 2-year-old and another on the way in January.
