Second mortal nuts get raised OTR

Without getting into a big read, he could have called down with 22 because he was getting a price. It might be good and he had 2 outs to improve. Then he realizes he can't win at showdown, but you seem really weak, and he needs to bluff to win the hand.

That seems to have been the purpose of the small bets, to induce a bluff raise. You maybe induced it, and then decide he can only have quads.

Quads is really hard to make. There are very few combinations. It is much more likely he is value betting worse or bluffing.

Raising is much harder than calling, because he folds all bluffs and thin value bets. Plus you are getting even odds, not over 2-1.

This is just really bad, the microbets and then folding the 2nd nuts. It seems like the other side of fancy play syndrome from such other hands you have posted with bluffs or semibluffs.

Yeah this is just monsters under the bed syndrome. I think we've all been there when we're running bad and they just always seem to have it. I would recommend slowing down and trying to put him on a specific range in game. Usually if we beat value hands it's at least a mandatory call, and in this case we do (99 at least is raising for value).

If bro is vpiping 80% he's got a **** ton of 4's, and it makes a ton of sense for him to play this way once he sees the flop with any half-assed 4 he decides to play. Like there's 3 combos total of 99, he prob has 15~ combos with a 4. I think you really gotta hope he's doing this with most combos with an ace (since there's as many aces as 4's left in the deck), and if he isn't lowkey I think folding isn't that bad. I still call and laugh about the 1 outer but if y'all are narrowing his range to 99 and any 4 then the answer imo is fold.

Him claiming 22 makes me think he had a 4 lol.

I agree with this.

Or he had 99 and thought it was the nuts.

Even if he had a 4, you can't fold getting 2.3-1 when you are beating value and showed a weak line which could induce bluffs. If you lose with the 2nd nuts, so be it.

However, the hand is badly played with the small bets regardless.

If he had 22 he'd have windmilled it across the table. He probably thought he was value betting with AX and wanted OP to feel bad about making what V assumes was a correct fold.

Remember, OP didn't show his hand. V doesn't know what hero folded.

Guaranteed he had AX, and would have called a jam.

I would probably raise an ace on the river. That gives him a full house and it is unlikely you have quad 4s now. The way you are betting doesn't look like you have 99 or AA. There is only one ace left though, as only one 4.

The only rationale for the tiny turn and river bets is to induce. You know low stakes players and this villain are loose passive. Then you fold when he does raise.

OP, I say this sincerely as the exact same thing happened to me this year between the Super Bowl & NBA Finals. Horrible luck leading into worse play. I hope you haven’t lost as much as I did.

You’re playing atrociously—it’s irrelevant if V had 64s—and are in a terrible mindset. Shut ‘er down until NYE when the games should be popping and you’re mentally refreshed. I’ve played twice since the Finals

gl GB

Yeah, I don't want to offend OP. Like his posts and want him to keep posting, but this hand was played unbelievably badly.

FWIW my initial reaction was that V had a 4 and was saying 22 because 2+2=4 ... this is a "joke" I've heard a few times at the casino, maybe because of this site but maybe just because walking meat sacks aren't as unique as we think.

Possible he just thought he had the best hand with an A, and 22 was an obvious BS thing to say to your JJ or whatever.

I do agree that if V did have 22 he'd have shown it, if for no other reason than that there's a huge amount of future value in showing 22 here.

Even if V had a 4 though, the sizings seem bad and you have to be sure he always has a 4.

I'm reminded of something I think mod Garick said, "they call with nothing. They don't raise with nothing."

V had something. He wasn't exactly bluffing. But I'd sooner believe AX than 4x that he slow played the whole way just to river quads and not jam.

Maybe he thought hero was actually weak because of the micro bets. If so, so be it. He's just getting my money.

/thread. This hand is not at all interesting and god knows why people are writing 1000 word responses to the most boring river spot ever.

Doc, three combos of 99 also.

Banana, I do enjoy your threads, plz keep poasting.

Just to show ya’ll that I’m an expert at the bad luck—>worse play—>poisoned mind LLNLHE Cycle (in my case 1-3/2-5 (10/90) 4+2 :

Spoiler

Show

I estimate 75/20/5 play/luck/logistics—I don’t drive, so can’t stay/leave when I always want to. I have identified three major leaks: playing SCs—KQ to 32—in blinds/ep esp for a PF raise SH/HU, being far too passive PF, and calling far too many shoves on all streets.

I may be missing the point you're making, but I think we're on the same page.

As I was typing my earlier reply, I was thinking about a hypothetical convo at the table if we call, V shows 4x, we muck without showing, and someone asks what we had?

Like, I think any random AX is the worst hand we could have that can call. Better to have A9 than AK, blocking 99. That pretty much leaves 99 and AA as hands hero can have that sort of have to call.

If V has 4x, so be it. We beat 99, AX, and literally every other hand V might conceivably have. I'd be more sick flat calling and seeing V had AX or 99 than jamming and having V snap us off with 4x. I'll happily risk doubling this guy up when we have top boat rather than risk letting him keep the rest of his stack when he over-plays worse value this way.

No idea what you guys are talking about - he has every suited 4. He has to have exactly 99 25% or more of the time here for this to be a call.

"EVERY" suited 4? Even with an 80% VPIP, that would be eye-opening. He's calling pre with EVERY suited 4? That's 10 combos from K4cc down to 42cc.

And he's just slow-playing ALL of them to the river, when you micro-bet flop and turn? Understand, if he's JUST playing suited 4's, he can't have a boat with 94 or A4, because the 9c and Ac are on the board. Those would be the two 4x combos he'd be most likely to slow-play when the BDFD appears.

The BB is still in the hand when V calls the turn. You think he's just flatting, with trips, when the BDFD appears, and BB can have ATC?

You think if he calls your pre-flop raise with K4, Q4, J4, all the way down to 42, he's NEVER raising flop or turn with trips? Why? Does he think his draw to an 8-high or lower flush is likely to be any good if the flush comes in and we bet again, on a paired board?

I have to think that at least SOME combos of 4Xcc are going to donk or x/r flop or turn, at SOME frequency, when you bet 1/3 pot and 20% pot. With 4Xcc, he's got a strangle-hold on the board, and yet his hand is still vulnerable to being out-drawn.

If the river was the 4c, we could say he might have A4dd or 94dd that he slow-played. The way he's played this, I'm not sure he has ANY 4x in his range, much less EVERY 4x.

I'd be more inclined to believe he has every combo of AdXx. He could have 43 combos of AX, and 3 of 99. He was laying us 3.3 to 1 on the river. Even if we give him all 10 combos of 4Xcc, we only need to find 33 combos we beat, and I just counted 46.

If we start throwing out some of his 4X combos, and throwing in random weird air-balls like missed clubs and PP's, we're easily going to win more than the required 23.26% of the time.

All I know is, if I have a 4, I'm raising your tiny bets before the river because I want to get some money in there. Remember, any A is a full house. He's easily trying to raise you off a chop, especially given your tiny bets. Sorry, Stupidbanana, but this was a dream spot and an easy call (if not shove).

I realized after I posted this that I got it exactly backwards...

If he's laying us 3.3 to 1, and he has all 10 combos of 4Xcc, we only need to find 3 combos we beat, not 33.

I don't think he has 10 combos of hands with a 4 in them. I'm not sure he has any. I'm very sure he could have at least 3 combos of hands we beat.

I don't see any explanation of the tiny bets. We know this player is loose/passive, so don't we want to build a pot with the nuts or 2nd nuts? I assume the purpose was not to induce, since hero folded to a raise.

He's got a whole lot of offsuit 4's as well lmao. 80% VPIP isn't folding K4o, Q4o, or 45o

If he has ten 4's we lose 100$ ten times = 1000$

If he has 99 three times, we win 300$ 3 times = 900$

You're getting 3:1 not 3.3:1

He called 15 on the button pre - he has A4o, 45o, 64s, J4s..

What if you add in that he has AX (not a 4)?

1. I think you're over-mathing it.

You bet 30 into 170, and he raised to 130, so you have to call 100. The pot is 170+130+30. That's 330. If you have to call 100 to win 330, you're being laid 3.3 to 1, not 3 to 1.

Not that there's enough difference to argue over it. If you believe he has 10 combos of value, it's roughly 3 combos we beat that we need to find, since there's no such thing as 0.33 of a combo. We can round it to an even 3.

2. Earlier you said he has every combo of suited 4x. Now you're adding off-suit combos. Okay. Fine. I think he could have some off-suit combos. In fact, I'd bet he calls pre with 54o more often than he does with 42s or T4s.

But even if you think he's getting in there with EVERY combo that has a 4 in it, that's probably a bit more than an 80% VPIP range, and he'd have to flat call the flop AND turn, after flopping trips, AND when the BDFD appears on the turn, WITH the BB still left to act behind him, when you're betting really small.

I just don't see that happening. Maybe he has SOME of the 4x combos in his pre-flop calling range. Probably not ALL. But when he doesn't raise flop or turn, I'm not sure he has any.

But even if we want to give him some, or even all...you're still getting 3.3 to 1 on a call, and only need to find enough worse hands he could have. He could certainly have the 3 combos of 99.

How many AX combos can he have? If he's calling pre with EVERY combo of 4x, then wouldn't it stand to reason he's calling pre with EVERY combo of AX? And how many of those combos does he have that float the flop, and then take this line after spiking top pair, and rivering a full house?

If I'm counting right, if we give him every combo of 4x, that's 44 combos. We need to find 13 combos we beat. There's 3 of 99. Does he have 10 combos of AX or anything else that he might raise when you take this line? If we just give him all the AK-A9 and A2/A3/A5, that's 31 combos.

We don't have to work too hard to find enough worse value to make this a profitable call.

I still don't understand the purpose of the tiny turn and river bets.