2025 NFL Season Thread: Can Uncle Rico save the Broncos or will they be Nixed?
Greetings friends.
Those of you who know me know me as a Niners fan full of fantastical levels of vitriol and rage. I hav
I know Jets is funnier, but it really should be Titans. People keep refusing to give them the disrespect they deserve.
Think I'm going to deposit $100 and bet that plus the winnings every week for the rest of the year.
I know Jets is funnier, but it really should be Titans. People keep refusing to give them the disrespect they deserve.
Think I'm going to deposit $100 and bet that plus the winnings every week for the rest of the year.
Their best hope is that a superstar QB emerges and they can get a trade haul with the #1 pick
I seem to be alone on the Cam Ward island but I can’t see them moving on from him after 1 year
I really hope for the sake of giants fans on the forum they resist the urge to get Kiffin
Although as a fan of abject hilarity I really hope they get Kiffin
Edit: or Bill. Bill would be so ****ing funny
BB confirmed
Time is a flat circle
after 10 weeks of the season, the Seahawks have the 9th best DVOA at this stage of the season since records began in 1977
https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-10-dvoa-...
The attached link has a top 13. Of the other 12...
7 won the Super Bowl
1 lost in the Super Bowl
3 lost in the Conference Championship
only 1 team didn't make it to the Conference Championship
here is the link to this year's DVOA table. Seattle play at the Rams on the weekend who are the #2 ranked team by DVOA this season
To have a Secretariat lead in DVOA with a home loss to the Niners—who did still have Bosa & Warner tbf but still—makes me suspicious of the algorithm, but ldo 2/3 of the league is complete dogsht also, so who knows.
When isn't 2/3 of the league dogshit? The Jets chart is funny, but its football and random stupid **** happens by dumb players and even dumber coaches. None of it surprises me anymore, especially when nearly half the league makes the playoffs.
Gbebe, I appreciate you doing the power rankings all these years. It gives us all a talking point each week, however....
Eagles at top, fine...id put the Rams at this point but perfectly reasonable. No complaints top 3 regardless. But while Bills and Chiefs might have vegas on their side I dont know if they deserve 4/5...the PACKERS tho, should certainly he behind the Seahawks.
The Pats shouod be higher, theyve shown they can beat good teams and stomp bad teams. I think Broncos is a bit low? but totally justifiable given their shitty performances-sunday will say a lot. Im not looking at your list right now but otherwise no other complaints.
Oh yea, cowboys too ****ing high
Seattle is a complete team, only issue is they must play Rams close or win Sunday and I dont yet trust Darnold in playoffs.
Playoff pressure is a real thing.
Several big games this weekend, should be fun
To have a Secretariat lead in DVOA with a home loss to the Niners-who did still have Bosa & Warner tbf but still-makes me suspicious of the algorithm, but ldo 2/3 of the league is complete dogsht also, so who knows.
Everyone has bad losses in the NFL. Look at what the Bills served up on the weekend.
sorry, that wasn't finished.
I think if you're arguing for the Seahawks, you say that they've lost two games, to teams with winning records by a total of 7 points. 1 game in week 1 and 1 game on the road at the opposite end of the country and both games could have gone either way
if you're arguing against them, it's 'meh...they lost to the two best teams on their schedule and the rest of their opposition haven't been that flash. Albeit with the exception of the Chiefs and Eagles, not many teams have played 'tough' schedules. the Colts schedule has been super soft
So yep, let's see - they have the Rams twice, the 9ers again and the Colts.
Edit - that should have read Ravens not Chiefs
Some examples for context for SEA:
IND .430 SoS, .373 SoV
DEN .425 SoS, .326 SoV
NE .376 SoS, .373 SoV
SEA .440 SoS, .385 SoV
The rest of the good teams in the NFC actually have significantly sturdier schedules
Flip through Kraft's receptions this season and you'll see play after play where he's running over, through and past defenders for huge gains after the catch. Eleven of his 30 receptions over the Packers' first seven games featured at least 15 yards after the catch. No other tight end has more than eight such catches through seven games since at least 2007, the earliest year for which YAC data is available via TruMedia.
- - -
Among 43 quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks since the start of last season, Penix is 41st in completion percentage and 42nd in off-target rate
- - -
On throws of 10 or more air yards, Nix' off-target rate is dead last among all quarterbacks over the past two seasons combined.
- - -
Daboll's Giants were 19-4-1 in games in which they had a win probability over 90% at any point. That winning percentage of 81.3% is unsurprisingly well below the league average (92.2%).
- - -
Darnold is averaging 0.51 EPA per dropback on rollouts. On rollouts to his left -- tricky plays that surprise the defense by rolling to the quarterback's offhanded side -- he's at 0.99 EPA per dropback.
- - -
Spoiler
sry heels
- - -
225-1: That's the record for NFL teams that have held their opponent under 175 total yards and not turned the ball over. The one loss is the Browns, who lost to the Jets on Sunday.
The bigger stat is that we’ve only been favored 11x since the 2021 season. I think the total sample of the streak of the last time we won a game as a favorite is 75.
75 games in a row without winning as a favorite???? that's insane! I would guess the second biggest streak isn't anywhere close to that. I'm curious to know what it is, and also the longest streak of games without a loss as a favorite. again, i'd guess it's nowere close to 75
any Buccs teams from the 70s-80s qualify?
Buccs ?
My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market.
Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss.
My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.
Hey, you gotta check out my website – I even throw in some free picks!
[COLOR="Blue"]victorypicks.eu[/COLOR]
Plus, I've got something special for everyone today!
On Thursday I'm handing out a 100% locked-in, guaranteed winner for a college football game (NCAAF) to anyone who wants it. Here's all you gotta do:
1. Hit me up with a message.
2. Put "FIX" in the subject line. That's it. I'll send you the play. This thing is a cash machine. A quick heads-up for my regulars: You guys get first shot at this. Get your bigger bets in early before the sportsbooks slash the limits on this game. Get on it!
My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market.
Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss.
My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.
Hey, you gotta check out my website – I even throw in some free picks!
[COLOR="Blue"][B]victorypicks.eu[/B][/CO...
Plus, I've got something special for everyone today!
On Thursday I'm handing out a 100% locked-in, guaranteed winner for a college football game (NCAAF) to anyone who wants it. Here's all you gotta do:
1. Hit me up with a message.
2. Put "FIX" in the subject line. That's it. I'll send you the play. This thing is a cash machine. A quick heads-up for my regulars: You guys get first shot at this. Get your bigger bets in early before the sportsbooks slash the limits on this game. Get on it!
Sando w a damning critique of the Sauce deal
The Colts paid a premium for Sauce Gardner in an era where the shutdown corner doesn't shut down nearly as much. Was it a mistake?
The case for acquiring Gardner is simple from the Colts' perspective. They are getting a talented young corner under contract through 2030, a player they would never be able to land in free agency. Once starting corner Charvarius Ward returns from injury following a Week 11 bye, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can unleash Ward/Gardner against the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 12) and whoever the AFC serves up in the playoffs. That's a potentially formidable combination at a position that has troubled the Colts in recent seasons.
"Now, when you go against a Philly, you have a chance against A.J. Brown," a defensive coach from another team said.
When Gardner drove on the football and broke up a third-down pass from the Falcons' Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London in Germany on Sunday, Colts fans could see one of the reasons the team jumped at the chance to make the trade. Gardner came oh-so-close to picking off the pass, and as Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner observed on the NFL Network broadcast, there wasn't much Penix could have done differently. Gardner simply won that rep, breaking on the ball from depth to make an athletic play.
The trade sent a strong signal to the Colts' locker room that management is doing all it can to contend right now. The move rewarded Quenton Nelson, Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Michael Pittman, Kenny Moore, Zaire Franklin, Braden Smith, Jonathan Taylor and everyone else who lived through some of the franchise's darker days.
Though the first-round picks would be nice to have, the Colts won't be picking early enough to have their choice of quarterbacks, and even if they were, the Anthony Richardson experience remains a strong deterrent. Daniel Jones is probably a better option than any quarterback the Colts might find elsewhere. Indy has also shown an ability to find key contributors after the first round of the draft. That includes four-fifths of a very good starting offensive line and star running back Taylor, among others.
"They were desperate for a corner, so I totally get it," an exec from another team said. "The owner (Jim Irsay) died, they are going for it. Maybe they think they can move Anthony Richardson for something. That said, I've never been terribly impressed with Gardner. (Derek) Stingley was the corner from that draft we liked."
If Gardner were Stingley, the Jets probably would have held onto him. The Colts got the cornerback they could get.
"I think the Jets made a mistake paying him (Gardner) and got out from under it," an offensive coach said.
My fear for Indy is that the team paid a premium price for a not-quite-premium player at a position where a single star makes less impact than in the past.
Two decades ago, when the NFL's base offense consisted of two backs with a blocking tight end and only two wide receivers, an elite cornerback could often take away half of the dangerous receiving options.
"You could put that player against Randy Moss in 2000 and hope he has three catches for 60 yards and a touchdown," the defensive coach said. "You can't do that now because George Kittle or Travis Kelce will have a 150-yard day. There's enough talent spread out across the five eligible receivers."
Now, teams align with three wide receivers on most downs. Their tight ends are more receivers than blockers. Halfbacks no longer wear oversized shoulder pads that signal their utility as sledgehammers. Offensive players have honed their receiving skills in seven-on-seven leagues. As a result, an elite corner playing in the modern NFL can take away a smaller fraction of the opponent's pass game.
There are other considerations as well. If Gardner is going to travel with the best receiver on the other team, the Colts will have a harder time disguising coverages in an era when disguise has become increasingly important for defenses.
"If you travel them in zone, then everyone's technique changes," the defensive coach said. "If he has to play in the slot, then to not show the zone, other people go other places. The nickel has to play another position. Now it might bump two linebackers into other zone drops. You went maximum dollar expenditure, premier player, but do you want to give away man and zone pre-snap?"
let me know the next time Kittle or Kelce has a 150 yard day
losing the forest for the trees
He makes a good point. The Colts secondary is Sauce, Moody Ward, and Moore. What's the point of having two all-pros at CB if the other team is allowed to use their TEs to catch passes too?
