$1/2 AA 3 ways dry flop vs about nut low turn
$1/2 Monday afternoon. Probably 3rd orbit. Folded everything thus far.
V1 20’s WG LP. $300ish. Seems like competent rec, bordering on reg. Talking about playing on some vlog and wearing a poker room hat from a room in Texas.
V2 40’s WG. BTN. $325ish. Don’t have a good read on him. Haven’t seen anything noteworthy. So I assume ABC rec but don’t know.
H BB. $280ish. 40’s WG. Don’t know V’s and H has folded every hand for 2.5 orbits.
V1 opens to $10, V2 flats. H makes it $40 with black A’s. Both V’s call.
Flop ($115)
853dsh
H $25, c, c
Turn ($190)
H x to rep missed AK or some other piece of cheese hand. V1 goes $75 as expected. V2 flats the $75.
V1 should be OP heavy here and is betting to protect. V could have OP’s, wheel draw, maybe some SC’s anround the flop and of course flopped sets.
There’s $340 in the pot, $75 to call, $215 total behind. H?
5 Replies
The nut low is a 9d? 4d? It's not listed.
Probably ripping it in, even so. You'll have 140 back, and pot'll be >400. What are we hoping for on the river?
Flop seems terrible. What is this with the tiny bets? 22% pot. I would go at least half pot and represent AK or some preflop bluff representing AA.
Turn is a bad card, as indicated. I would probably x/shove as played anyway this low spr.
If you think V1 has an 8, you're kind of screwed. I have you at 4.8% equity on turn, giving V1 only 98s/87s and V2 76.
That said, is a "competent rec, bordering on reg," just x-calling a b22 flop bet? When V2 can have all of the 76s, maybe 76o too, and you probably have JJ+/AK? Seems bold to let them draw so cheaply with the epitome of a vulnerable hand versus throwing in a raise.
Now of course, I don't expect a raise from an 8-having V1. Honestly, b40 from him seems a bit high, as short as you all are. How does he expect you both to call? He's a 82/14 favorite over a 76 holding V2. Ergo, he may not have an 8.
The small bets are really bad. V1 is from Texas, 3! to $50, he will call. He'll think it's normal.
OTF, go at least half pot, we're targeting hands like 99-jj, JT, T9 bdfd. They don't have a lot of direct draws, but a lot of backdoor galore type hands that will float a perceived auto cbet.
Turn looks ugly, but should either V have an 8 often? No. One combo 88, one combo A8s, and maybe a frisky 98/87. There are plenty of pps that might hero call so rip it in. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 77, TT, in either hand and V1 could be fos. If we run into an 8 or 55, nh reload. Next time 3! bigger and bet flop bigger.
