1-2: AKo in BB vs. tight guy UTG, A8c2c2
V 50ish white guy ... open limping/calling a bunch preflop, seems mostly passive. But not 100% sure on the reads as it's only been an hour or so and he hasn't been in a lot of pots. He did announce at one point "Everyone is folding too much correctly, we really need a maniac to sit down at this table"
300ish
H ... bought in for 300 and up a bit, just had a bunch of good hands and didn't get screwed. cover V by a bit, maybe 350. Maybe over limped a couple of times on the BTN, but apart from that raising limpers preflop.
Hand:
H in BB
V opens to 10 UTG
folds to H
H calls AKo
WTF: didn't love the idea of 3bet into a range we assume is mostly pairs and some other good stuff ... so take the cowards way out (GTO approved).
Pot: 21
Flop: Ad8c2c
H has AxKc and checks
V bets 10
H raises to 40
V snap calls 30, and then dealer tells him it's 40 and he puts another 10 in.
WTF: H now assumes we are only realistically losing to AA/88 and maybe A8s/22 sometimes if our read is off? V can cbet anything but assume folding a lot and calling with AQ/AJ and flush draws ... so just raise big?
Planning to bet big on almost all turns, maybe check some flush turns and Q/J.
Pot: 100
Turn: Ad8c2c 2x
H bets 65
V snap raises to 165
H ????
WTF Bet: H assumes this card is bad for V, as his flush draws now have to worry he's against full houses, so sizes down ... but maybe should just bet big anyway? AQ is probably fine/happy with this card.
WTF Raise: H has no idea what is happening now. Maybe V thinks we have a flush draw and AQ is the nuts? Maybe he had AA/88 all along? In a vacuum vs. population this looks a lot like a 2x, but that doesn't seem possible. Maybe the guy who said everyone is folding is now playing 3d chess? Or just raising because we bet less?
As always, feel free to comment on anything.
10 Replies
Call turn and donk jam river. It’s easy for him to get away if you 3bet the turn but I think this line is more believable as a bluff.
You basically have the nuts here. Better hands don’t snap call flop (they either 3bet or at least think about 3betting) and full houses don’t raise IP on the turn. He shouldn’t have any 2x.
I like your play pre- and on the flop. If you’re beat here it’s a cooler.
Edit: could actually get behind 3bet jamming turn since AQcc AJcc ATcc are possible. Just don’t fold!!
I don't hate pre for the reasons you gave. I'd still default to 3! because raise size is small and massive skill advantage on my part and as on a related note, V is probably not thoughtful enough that you gain deception by not 3!. Also, 1-2 rake is so high. I get that V having a limping range makes his raising range strong, but OTOH does this guy really care that he is UTG?
So I'd like a little more reason to flat pre. Like, let's say in addition to having a limping range, he also has bet sizing or other tells. Let's say, I know he is the type of player who will rule out AK if I call and then try to blast me off ace high boards. But again, don't hate it. Well, if the rake is high enough I probably do hate it.
Also, keep in mind, the solver (in it's way) does think that a 5x open is a big bet sizing tell and that V is super snug UTG.
Flop I don't like. I do like that you see this as a big value hand, Having played passively pre, we want to get extra value post. If your plan were to just call pre then treat AK as a bluff catcher the whole time that would be bad. This is obviously a good board for us because 22, A2 and A8 are reduced. However, it is also a nice board for V's range and you are taking away his potential to bluff on later streets. There might also be scenarios where you can get a little more out of QQ, for example. Say the turn is an A. C/C. QQ calls river. If I were V I'm already thinking about folding weaker aces. Though some would put you on a FD. A high boards are underbluffed and IDK how much you are CRing Jc7c here.
Turn: Oof. I like your bet. At this point we hope he just has a worse A. Perfect turn card, reducing A2 and 22 and a perfect card for him to hang around with AQ, AJ, etc. I'd say, especially at 1/2 if you CR and then someone raises you on a blank on the next street, you should really be worried. I lean to folding, barring some kind of read. The majority of players are just going to have a FH here. A certain type might have AK also, or an A high FD. In which case you're chopping, or he has great equity IP.
There is some stuff at play here like the fact that V can pretty much rule out you having AA or a 2 and might put you on a FD. It's a weird spot, but it's just not that hard for him to have AA, 88, A2, 22 or even A8. And keep in mind, you bet the turn pretty big.
No idea what V is doing if he doesn't have us crushed, and if he does, it's just a cooler.
With so little left behind, I don't see him or us ever folding, so I might just get it in now before an action killing river.
We're somewhat under-repped with the flat pre. V could possibly be leveling himself into thinking we're capped and he's just going to force us to fold with sheer aggression.
Call turn and donk jam river. It’s easy for him to get away if you 3bet the turn but I think this line is more believable as a bluff.You basically have the nuts here. Better hands don’t snap call flop (they either 3bet or at least think about 3betting) and full houses don’t raise IP on the turn. He shouldn’t have any 2x.I like your play pre- and on the flop. If you’re beat here
Pot'd be like 510 if H jams, and only another 90 or so to call, assuming 300 eff. V is really folding for 90 more? Albeit, they're bad enough to take this turn raise sizing, so maybe? Agree, it's a cooler when V flips over AA.
Call pre looks good - no one is 3betting a UTG full table open lightly from the BB of all positions. Flop looks good, turn we're just either jamming or calling and getting the rest in the river. I'd prob just jam here.
I also just call pre. Don’t jam turn and let his air off the hook, just call and check dark river.
Making a prediction that illiterat got stacked by AA in this hand.
Kind of a silly spot, don't think Hero can fold - guess just shove the last 100ish now and hope villain has some bluffs (like clubs).
The call, jam some rivers line seems ok too, maybe keeps in some Ax that fold to turn.
Xc river is meh, as villain should checkback weaker 1ps, and is he really finding this line with many club draws that anyway?
Results:
Spoiler
H loves to fold to aggression from random 1-2 players. But this seemed an insane spot to fold. Although the hand might be bottom of my value range, so maybe I should.
H tanks, but can't find a fold ... calling and shoving some rivers didn't really occur to me, but maybe it's better.
H shoves hoping V has AQ or at worst some random clubs he can't fold.
V snap calls and H says "88?" ... V shows 32s. ¯\_(ツ😉_/¯
V stayed for another couple of hours, and I didn't see him raise much after this hand. Maybe limped or called a few and chipped down $50.
But I guess with the +$80-$100/hr winrate from this hand, no need to be greedy.
Oof.