NL25 64s - value bet flush on paired board vs reg?
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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($26.33) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 40.7% | Flop Agg: 53.8% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 13.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 12.9% | Hands: 72]
UTG ($28.06) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 29.2% | Hands: 56]
HJ ($49.59) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 2.5% | AGG: 25.4% | Hands: 160]
CO ($13.76) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 124]
HERO ($36.13)
SB ($25) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 18.2% | Hands: 34]
Dealt to Hero: 6♠ 4♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [19.79 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 9♠ A♠ 2♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $34.88), BB Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $25.08)
Turn ($2.60): 9♠ A♠ 2♦ 5♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.95 (Rem. Stack: $32.93), BB Calls $1.95 (Rem. Stack: $23.13)
River ($6.50): 9♠ A♠ 2♦ 5♠ 9♦
BB Checks, HERO ? ? ?
It's a BTN vs BB, so ranges are wide and flush is usually a monster. My only concern is...what are worse hands that can call? Sure, there will be some stubborn Ax. Not sure if any 9x will make it to the river, 92s is not an option and A9 and 95s have a boat. He also might have better flushes too. Does a low flush seem like mid strength hand here?
If yes, what would be the minimum value bet hand, say Q-high flush?
8 Replies
His calling range should be AX with X = spade, all 9x, 43s, and then obviously boats and flushes which you lose to
Just bet around 2/3 and that is appropriate.
Personally I choose a smaller sizing on the flop but that’s me and maybe that’s not optimal and of course very villain dependant.
When we get to the river and the 9 comes it obviously reduces the combos of sets villain can have and it’s already less likely we’re playing vs another flush so we should assume villains range is super narrow. In such spots we’re at least targeting Ax villain has called down with and in some cases we will see JJ, QQ or any other pair villain chose to pay off - I lean towards betting on the smaller size on the river to get calls from these marginal holdings except vs super fish where a pot size bet gets snapped off.
His calling range should be AX with X = spade, all 9x, 43s, and then obviously boats and flushes which you lose to
Just bet around 2/3 and that is appropriate.
I actually thought about this hand quite a lot today and came to the conclusion it's really, really close. Here are some my thoughts:
Preflop, he shold have something like this (more or less, depending on which combos he chooses to 3-bet)
{ 99-22,ATs-A2s,KTs-K2s,QTs-Q2s,J9s-J5s,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,53s+,43s,AJo-A2o }
All of the combos # mapped to the river, though in reality he will fold plenty of these earlier
Now about the combos that arrive to the river.
A. Combos that have us beaten - up to ~~ 28
1. Full house (13)
- 99 (1) -> I would count it as 0.5, since 99 is often a 3-bet and potentially a x/r too
- 22 (3)
- 55 (3) - I assume he will x/c all of them, although fives might find it hard to withstand a big pressure on this board, but the backdoor str8 draw is there
- A9 (6) - the most obvious combination, but I would take 4 of them, cause this is a great candidate for a x/r
- 95s (1) - I don't know if he even calls that pre, it's two combos, but we can assign 0.5 just in case
2. Higher flush (15)
- KTs, K8s, K7s, K3s, K2s (5)
- QTs, Q8s, Q7s, Q3s, Q2s (5)
- J8s, J7s (2) ---> will be more if he calls all the way up to J2s
- T8s, T7s (2)
- 87s (1)
B. Combos that we can value bet against (29)
1. Lower flush (0)
- 32s (1) - there is one combo, but it is very unlikely: first because it is often a fold and secondly pair+FD are often a x/r, so I won't count it
2. Straight (3)
- 43s (3) - it's 3 combos, 4d3d could potentially x/r here
3. Trips (8)
- K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 97s, 96s (14)
- there could be K9o potentially as well, it's 6 combos I can throw in (2)
= I will count half of those, cause not everyone will x/c 2nd pair on a rather dangerous board
3. Top pair Ax (up to 18)
Tbh, I would start with A5 and A2, due to card removal effect.
- A5 (8) - 1 combo of A5s might be a preflop 3-bet
- A2 (6) - both are 9 combos, but I think they can be discounted a bit, cause this might be a flop x/r
- AxJs (2) - this and AT are kind of hero calls, but they are possible due to ♠. This is assuming he will x/c them 100% of the time.
- AxTs (2)
TOTAL:
A. Combos that have us beaten - up to ~~ 28 or 30-31 in worst case scenario
B. Combos that we can value bet against (29)
It's extremely close and Villain tendencies seem may skew our decision. That being said, I think if that is ~~ 0EV play and we are not sure whether Villain is capable or x/r bluffing river, checking is the safest option until we get more info on Villain.
Very valid point that I omitted in my analysis! Though on Axx board without any overcards and backdoor draws it's unlikely, but surely some of the flush combos should be deducted because of that!
This is a very obvious value bet BTN vs BB. If you're worried about what he's calling its probably a sign you're not bluffing enough on this node
I actually thought about this hand quite a lot today and came to the conclusion it's really, really close. Here are some my thoughts:Preflop, he shold have something like this (more or less, depending on which combos he chooses to 3-bet){ 99-22,ATs-A2s,KTs-K2s,QTs-Q2s,J9s-J5s,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,53s+,43s,AJo-A2o } All of the combos # mapped to the river, though in reality
You're right it is close, but if you think something is a close value bet on the river it is probably best to always just bet it in that scenario.
This is a very obvious value bet BTN vs BB. If you're worried about what he's calling its probably a sign you're not bluffing enough on this node
Based on the numbers that I provided it doesn't look like it is so obvious, solver also bets a minimum of Q-high flush here (besides J4s, due to some blockers), lower flushes are suggested to XB. If you think otherwise - feel free to tell me where I might be off with thought process. Bluffing on this node is yet another topic, this hand easily could fall into a XB range. Suggested range for bluffing are KTo-K7o with ♠ blockers and lower PPs, like 66 or occasional 44 (not a solver fan, just saying what it shows).
BB is much more capped in reality. E.g. sets will be raised almost 100% of the time on the flop. Flush draws will be raised some of the time as well.
Against most players I would value bet river, sizing would be around 33%-55% pot.
Based on the numbers that I provided it doesn't look like it is so obvious, solver also bets a minimum of Q-high flush here (besides J4s, due to some blockers), lower flushes are suggested to XB. If you think otherwise - feel free to tell me where I might be off with thought process. Bluffing on this node is yet another topic, this hand easily could fall into a XB range. Sugges
It probably is close but your range including not a single combo of 9xo has to be wrong. I would exclude 22 and 99 as most will c/r sets on the flop. Probably remove K2s/K3s/Q2/Q3s. Yes they're calls pre, people in the micros under-defend their BB not over-defend. Probably want to discount all flushes to some extent too, people in the micros fast play their hands.
With that being said. Bet 2/3 pot and fold to a shove is the correct move.
