TT on monotone board

call again

I'd play it the same way until the turn.

I think for this turn price I'd call to see what he does on the river. If he leads the river large, I'm folding. If he checks, I probably just check back. Against a small river bet there is some argument for a raise to get better hands to fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Fine so far, although a 3bet pre might have been in order vs this guy. Call again. Doubt he bluffs at river.

What java said, and had you 3!'d, overcalling flop would be fine. AP, H hates a lot of turns, should have a lot more sets, if fewer NFs, on 742ddd, so why is H just calling b30 with a vulnerable OP? As it is, with 365 back, V is getting a damn good price to draw to any A-JdX, which sounds bad.

AP, V hits Yahtzee on the turn, and I think H may be kinda #*#>÷ed, though bad sizing by V if they want to get stacks in.
Sure, call. See what the river brings. Pot'll be 129 with 340 back.

What's calling a turn raise that we beat? Perhaps sets, but even then they may fold. We also don't need protection much here; not many river cards are going to change who is ahead/behind.

As to OP. I think you played it fine. Now call on the turn. I probably fold to big river bet, but may have to soul read on a smaller one.

Wait so you're saying to raise flop?

Call turn seems fine.

I'd probably raise flop vs that sizing, I'm guessing villain is betting the wrong range.

Decent chance I just put in the 3! preflop anyway.

This

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With H holding 1 of the outs, V flops the flush 3.33% of the time. With said flush being greater than a T-high flush 1.67% of the time: Cooler.

V however is going to be drawing to a flush, 32% of the time. We would like to make that a mistake to draw for. Even though at first glance, most of those 1-card flushes lose to H's T. Practically though, with the UTG+1 open and non-LAG read, V isn't opening things like 98dd.

(V may either have at least one diamond or no diamonds. To not have a diamond, V must have one of the 38 non-D cards remaining out of 47 unknown cards, and then for their 2nd card, one of the 37 non-D out of now 46 remaining. Or 38/47 * 37/46. --> 0.6503. 1-.6503 = ~35% of the time, V has at least 1 diamond. Remove the 3.33% that V has 2 Ds, and we have 32%)

Even getting away from the flush draw or not question, H has an OP that might be outdrawn on 16 of the 47 remaining cards, and V is very likely to have two of those in their hand now. (Ofc, if they do, the odds are more like 14/45 we'll see one on the turn.)

Also, if V's in the lead, with AA-JJ, how happy are they going to be continuing versus a raise representing a low made flush? Even with one diamond? We have a read that V does have a fold button.

Therefore, I'd want V to have to pay more than ~30% of the pot to have to draw. Even at 7-8 SPR, so going to be difficult to deny good IO if V really wants to keep drawing.

I could be completely bonkers with wanting to raise this cbet, but the above was what I thinking as to why. I'm very curious to find out how the computer would play this. ("So pay for a GTO wizard membership, stupid." Exactly.)

Most certainly not this.

Call turn.

Overs + flush draw is actually a slight fave on the flop (at least with regards to overall equity, while admitting that don't always get to realize that). And if we give them 14 outs, they have ~almost the immediate odds to see a turn versus a full PSB raise (plus put us in a stoopid position if they reraise with their massive equity). Add to that the times they're currently crushing us, and overall it's not really a spot we want to be shoveling in money, imo. Let's just see what happens on the turn and hopefully we can make a better decision there given card and action.

GcluelessNLnoobG

PRE - think I'd probably 3B, at least some of the time. It somewhat depends on the table dynamics and the players left to act.

FLOP - V is supposed to check or bet small on monotone flops. His action here doesn't really define his range at all. I might consider raising because our hand could use some protection, but I don't think a better hand folds, nor do many NFD's, so calling and evaluating the turn is an option.

TURN - with so many lower diamonds on board, it's hard to find any value hands we beat, and few opponents are going to continue barreling without a flush, so I probably just fold pretty comfortably.

hyper aggro Korean kid in the blinds

I was thinking he might squeeze some or call some.

In that case I do more flat calling when we'll have position post, and put in some opportunistic back raises pre.

While I agree with the reasoning, it's not a fold vs that size. Villain needs very few bluffs to make this a call vs that sizing and you're not going to convince anyone people never bluff these boards.

Perhaps there's some MDA which would illuminate this in a quantifiable way, giving us a clearly right or clearly wrong answer.

We're being laid around 4:1. To make this a profitable call, we need to be good here around 20% of the time, AND expect V to give up and check to us on the river 100% of the time when we're good. Without any reads that V is overly aggro, I'd guestimate we're good here maybe 5% of the time.

If this is a bluff or worse for value, good for him.