NL25 - T7s - hero call vs aggro fish?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($44.34)
HJ ($35.93) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 18.4% | AGG: 26.7% | Hands: 52]
CO ($35.96) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 22% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 97]
BTN ($14.25) [VPIP: 55% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 36.2% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 38.6% | River Agg: 27.6% | 3Bet: 2.2% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 139]
SB ($25.67) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 22.9% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 84]
Dealt to Hero: T♥ 7♥
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.75, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [8.44 effective]
Flop ($1.60): 6♠ A♣ T♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.20 (Rem. Stack: $12.30), HERO Calls $1.20 (Rem. Stack: $42.39)
Turn ($4): 6♠ A♣ T♣ 5♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.32 (Rem. Stack: $10.98), HERO Calls $1.32 (Rem. Stack: $41.07)
River ($6.64): 6♠ A♣ T♣ 5♠ A♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $10.98 (allin), HERO ? ? ?
Pros:
- literally all the draws missed, straight draws (43, 74, 87, KQ, KJ, QJ) and two flush draws
Cons:
- he can have tons of Ax and did an overbet
Equity wise I am looking good I think, only thing is if fish behave that way with missed draws or with value hands only.
10 Replies
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)HERO ($44.34)HJ ($35.93) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 18.4% | AGG: 26.7% | Hands: 52]CO ($35.96) [VPIP: 25.3% | PFR: 22% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 97]BTN ($14.25) [VPIP: 55% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 36.2% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 38.6% | River Agg: 27.6% | 3Bet: 2.2% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 139]SB
Your sample size is small but this is the most aggressive player at the table so most likely to have a bluff-bluff-bluff betting line. Also the 75% pot, roughly 33% pot, and pot+ end bet in my experience is fishy. Pure value is more likely to go 75%, 75%, rest. What was your plan when you called the flop bet?
Your sample size is small but this is the most aggressive player at the table so most likely to have a bluff-bluff-bluff betting line. Also the 75% pot, roughly 33% pot, and pot+ end bet in my experience is fishy. Pure value is more likely to go 75%, 75%, rest. What was your plan when you called the flop bet?
I agree it loks fishy. My plan was to x/c flop and x/c most turns other than broadway cards and most likely x/f river unimproved (vs a reg, there is a possiblity for a x/r, if we block some straights and a set / two pair).
I'm just 3xing this on the turn vs this sizing. Too many good things can happen. AP I'd fold river. We really want to block a FD to call this. 78 is going to be one of his best river bluffs. Ax is just so much of a better river call
I'm just 3xing this on the turn vs this sizing. Too many good things can happen.
Which are these things? We don't have any redraws. Of course we can pretend we do that with a FD and then bomb every ♣, ♠ and ofc a T.
AP I'd fold river. We really want to block a FD to call this. 78 is going to be one of his best river bluffs. Ax is just so much of a better river call.
Isn't it the opposite? I thought we want NOT to block FDs, because then it means it is more likely that he has it? 
87 is also blocking potential OESD he could have bluffed with. Or maybe you meant something else?
Typically you want the FD on the river because villain shouldn't bluff with the missed FD cause it blocks your auto folds. This is definitely true for the jam size. Likely he can put some of those combos into a smaller size but he really wouldn't want to jam with a missed FD.
For the turn I would raise for a couple reasons. We have to raise our value here cause of the 2FDs and his sizing being indicative of him going thinner than he's meant to. The T7 unblocking FDs in my opinion is a pretty prime merge where we make Ax indifferent but still get called by the combo draws. I would also argue that there are many exploits where he goes small OTT to make you raise all your value so he can do this **** on a river so if you don't bluff raise enough you're the one getting exploited. Blocking the T is obviously great for you and you basically never get a +EV river spot so in my opinion raising turn is just the best way to be tough
I am quite confused. Why are you saying Villain "shouldn't bluff with the missed FD", isn't this the whole point? If he has FDs = he has more bluffs. If he doesn't, then his betting range gets stronger, at least that's my understanding. It would block my auto folds, yes, but does he think like that? Or maybe just simply: I have a missed draw = I need to bluff.
So you would x/jam the turn (not x/r smaller), correct? Would you also x/r and jam river 100 bb deep?
As in both players can see the missed draws. Calling cause everything missed is kinda exploitable. I'd prefer to just make a good decision in this spot. His Agg stats don't make me think we can range call
Based on what the exploitative solver GTOkiller shows.
The overbet jam on the paired Ace is extremely value-heavy.
GTOkiller’s exploitative output → T7 is pure fold.
Calling is heavily EV−−, and the solver only continues with trips or better because that’s the minimum needed to beat the pool’s value-skewed shove range.
Just fold turn. Raise is spew imo
BTN ($14.25) [VPIP: 55% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 36.2% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 38.6% | River Agg: 27.6% | 3Bet: 2.2% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 139]
Im not sure i see the aggro fish here, more like a regular fish, am i wrong? The hand seems like a turn fold to me personally.
As in both players can see the missed draws. Calling cause everything missed is kinda exploitable. I'd prefer to just make a good decision in this spot. His Agg stats don't make me think we can range call
Hey, could you elaborate further on the missed draws thing? I was just thinking about it - missed draws usually give up (unless you dont have any other bluffs in range, i think), so if we dont block fds, then villain has more air, but less bluffs. So when villain bets, he probably doesnt have missed draws, but is it relevant that we have a fd blocker at that point, since villain doesnt bet what we block? Basically its like we dont block anything in his betting range (draws give up). So would it be more relevant whether we block the non-fd bluffs?
If we call more with fd blockers, wouldnt it level back to where villain bluffs more with missed fds since, you know, we dont have them then? Im kinda confused now haha.
