TT in SB vs Tight UTG — Heart River Bluff Jam

Im gonna assume your read is right.

I think TT in SB is closer to fold than raise given that, but I get the call.

Pre: marginal but I get peeling one.
Turn: probably time to release
River: I get the bluff in abstract, but it's completely inconsistent with your read, you say hes sticky post *and* wtf does it matter if you block Th given how you ranged him?

"Let's bluff the sticky nit with an unfoldable range" sounds like a -EV game.

Call pre is fine. This isn't online high stakes. A good V who views you as reasonable is going to give you a lot of PPs. Wouldn't worry too much about that but keep it in mind.

Flop fine.

When top pair pairs we can already start thinking about bluffs. V betting small, already a bit worried.

River. Good play. I really doubt v has a flush as Th Jh are gone. Not a big part of his assigned range but still. Akh AQh should check the turn an awful lot and if bluffing, chose a pretty bad size.

Your jame makes a lot of sense. If you had a 9 or a boat you would be afraid he'd check back when the hearts come in. If you have a flush you have a flush.

Jj is a very likely hand for you.

I think he would be correct to fold an overpair here.

PRE - if we really think he's such a nit that his range is just AA/KK/AK, we could just fold TT pre.

If we're going to flat, I assume we're just doing it to set-mine, and should fold if we don't flop a set and he c-bets the flop.

FLOP - we didn't flop a set, and he c-bet, so we should just fold, right?

Unless we're not that sure about our read. Are we calling to see if he gives up and checks back the turn, indicating he may have been c-betting the flop with just AK?

TURN - Either check-raise his small bet to rep 9x, or check-fold.

RIVER - Honestly, I don't exactly hate this jam. You've mostly played your hand like a flush draw.

Like, say he calls with all the combos of AKhh and AhAx. That's four combos. If he folds all his other AA and KK combos, that's 9 combos. I think our bluff has to get through 57% of the time. If he folds 9 of 13 better combos, that's 69%.

I do think there's some frequency of opponents just refusing to release their big over-pairs, even when the most obvious draws come in. I don't know if this guy is *THAT* sticky, but if he is, I wouldn't be shocked if he talks himself into making a "bad" call often enough to make this a punt.

The bigger problem I see is that he didn't play his hand like a big PP that would be worried about any of the bazillion draws coming in. He played *HIS* hand like a draw, and the most obvious draw gets there.

Yeah it makes sense, and I think against a lot of players its a good bluff, but he says sticky, and we all know at these stakes there are tons of people who can't let an over pair go.

I don’t like this play. Don’t think this player type folds AA/KK enough. This would be a good play as an exploit if you actually had a flush, which means it is not a good spot to bluff. Just fold the turn.

I'm fine with just flatting against a tight opener.

You say he's sticky post, but how does he play as the aggressor multiway? Against a lot of tighter ABC opponents who aren't cbetting the flop 3way with air, I'd just fold the flop. Although admittedly most tighter ABC opponents protect against the flush draw with massive bets, so this sizing is suspect and I don't hate continuing if we think he's capable of a one-and-done.

Super weird turn bet by him. Most tighter ABC opponents can easily start shutting down with overpairs when TP on the flop pairs on the turn. Honestly, based purely on sizing and his continued aggression on this turn card, I would mostly put tightish ABCish opponents on something like AKhh (cbetting smallish with good equity and then doing the same on the turn).

Not sure how the Th blocker is relevant (ETA: against a tight opening range it doesn't even really eliminate any value combos except maybe AThh)? As per my turn read, he has Axhh *a lot*, and I really don't see overpairs played like this regarding sizing/continuing. So I don't like the jam at all (obviously inb4 he folds AKhh face up).

But overall my guess is this HH is extremely read dependent.

After reading the rest of the post, if we're truly labelling this guy as a sticky nit (i.e. one that likely has us beat on the flop and yet we're going to have trouble making him fold better even on a scary runout), then trivial fold on the flop, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

"Is flatting T♥ T♠ in the SB vs a super narrow UTG opening range reasonable?
Or is this always a fold/squeeze?" - I'm folding this to a single raise somewhere between never and absolutely freaking never. If our read is that this player's range is high and tight, then it's miserable if he jams, we probalby have to fold, and that's a disaster if he has AK. We only want to 3! if we believe V has hands in his range that will fold. If we're getting called almost all the time, we don't really want to play a big pot OOP.

So by process of elimination, against this type of V its a flat all day. If V is more aggressive and has a bet/fold range, then I'm 3!ing all day.

"Idea was to call his overpairs and outplay him postflop. Apply max pressure on heart/spade runouts or sets.
Good vs sticky nit?" - Is a sticky nit going to fold the AA he's been waiting all day to open just because a flush came in? In my experience, you're going to get a sigh, a shake of the head, and a reluctant call - but you will be called by AA/KK and the V being reluctant to do it doesn't save you money. I do not feel good trying to get overpairs to fold in a small $1/$3 game. If we're 400+ bbs deep maybe, but in this case, you are the short stack. He isn't even the one being put all-in, you are. And yes, that makes a difference - players will be more likely to call a shove that they cover than one that puts them at risk of going home or reloading.

The idea of "outplaying" post flop isn't to always win. You can't win every hand. Part of "outplaying" is getting away cheap when you are beat. If our assumption is that V has AA/KK/QQ/AK maybe AQ type hands, then our plan is to rip it in when we flop huge like hitting a set or flopping a straight because V isn't going to be able to get away. We're going to play very aggressively when we hit because V is inherently strong and will pay us off.

The flip side of that is that when we miss, we're only going to be able to beat the weakest portion of his range AK/AQ. So the question we need to answer is: Will this V c-bet AK? If we can answer that question, we can exploit.

On the river, your logic is inconsistent. You have a Th, so what? The range you put your opponent on has zero tens in it. So you "block" something that isn't in your opponent's range at all. If your opponent has a flush, its probably AKhh and you're getting snapped off. If your opponent has AA or KK, 50% of the time, he has a really big heart blocker. I don't feel good about pushing an average $1/$3 player off of AA or KK ever. V is uncapped, he can absolutely have the stone nuts here with AK/AQhh, he can have AA/KK, which are hands I don't think are folding. So I think the river shove is torching.

Back to the flop, if we want to get aggressive this hand, that's the place to do it. We can x/r and take down the pot a lot against AK/AQ, we get value from AK/AQ with a heart, and he slows down on the turn a lot and just checks it back giving us a free card to catch our T if he has AA/KK and chooses to call instead of jam (as nits often do). And sometimes we'll be surprised and V isn't as nitty as we thought, and after we show aggression will check down AJ, AT, 88.

So if we're looking for an exploit, if we believe V is c-betting with AK/AQ, we x/r to $60 on the flop and look to shut it down if called and definitely fold if jammed on. We risk $60, instead of our whole stack. As it is, we punted the whole stack when V often has immovable hands. If we believe V isn't betting AK, and is only betting with pps that are mostly better than ours, then the exploit is to get nitty ourselves and make a disrespectful fold. Given the backdoor potential and the small bet, I think peeling to see if the heart draw comes in OTT is ok.

"Is it fine to take a hand that’s behind preflop and rely on postflop skill edge in 1/3?
Or is this just torching money vs tight players?" - Absolutely, but when you are post-flop, don't punt and reward the guy who is only playing AA by piling money in for him. If you know a V is super strong, then get away and make disrespectful folds when they show aggression post flop. Hammer them when you get lucky with your garbage. In these situations, the skill is getting away and not paying them off when you have a moderate strength hand so they either win a small pot from you or lose stacks to you.

Pf and flop are good. Turn is just a fold and river is a spew against a sticky nit.