[500BB] Thought process breakdown — AA vs flop check-raise (flopped quads)

I said "similar, " but the spot I was referring to was a SRP. I defended out of the BB and decided to check raise a low paired board to represent trips (I had a straight draw). A three flush hit the turn, and since a lot of my bluffs would be flush draws I decided to keep barreling. Then I went for the jam when a fourth flush card came on the river.

This was in a live tournament and I had a read and felt pretty confident my rec opponent didn't have a flush. I was right but he tanked and hero called with one pair (technically two pair with the pair on the board).

If I was in the same spot with a king or queen high flush I would have jammed too (maybe my read played a role in this).

Anyway I look at poker differently than some people, but I need an extreme reason to fold the top of my range. You said the solver would show up with 66 and 88 but I'm never really 3-betting those in this preflop setup. I checked 100 BB solver ranges and it was never 3-betting 66 and only 3-betting 88 a sliver (mostly calling). So the ace high flush is effectively the top of our range.

I think you just have to call unless you're playing a total nit. With the pot odds you only need to be good less than 1/3 of the time.

No I went pretty much geometric.

Anyway I could see the bet sizing tell being enough to fold something like jacks with the jack of spades but not the As. Maybe I could see folding in a live environment with a strong live read.

I had that kind of style myself some years back...
But i'm getting to old for that kind of variance lol

He really doesn't have much 6x or 44 here.

Well, I mean GIVEN/CONDITIONAL on you guys being here--he has a boat pretty often.

It's still an easy call.

It SHOULD be a very rare spot.

I think it'll end up being seen way more often than it "should"

I see way too much thinner value in his range to have enough air to balance a ship. Think JJ, TT (disagree with you that he'd not ever xr these). Even the lower flushes. Also like JJ and TT, for example.

So I don't really see ship being an equilibrium strategy; I think there are better alternatives.

And so given that you are here:

• 87s, A4s, two overs with a heart--all in his range. Rare lines is correlated with "rare" combo computations (really shouldn't be that rare actually...)
  
• Disagree he wouldn't xr those pocket pairs you mention; clear possible jam candidates, you'll see it happen sometimes. Is it rare? Maybe. So is this spot. Do you agree?
  
• And as seen ITT--some guys'll jam worse flushes. Do most guys do this? IDK--would most guys do *this*?
  
• He can also be too polar here--mostly boats+ and air. Sometimes this helps you; sometimes it hurts you
  
• There's a lot of universes where he makes errors and ace-high flush punishes 100% of his errors.
  

IDK if you win, like HALF the time--but more than enough to call it off.

You very well might lose "often". But you win "often enough".

Next time, if you have the chance after the hands, try baiting some info out of him in the chat:

Tell him: "You were snap getting me off AA- no spade. Ever consider bluffing me there?"

He just might respond with the truth. The word "bluff" does derive from a sense of "bragging", ya know--and people can exploitably reveal things when they brag.