$2/3/6 3rds nuts a fold?
$2/3/6 mandatory straddle.
V1 SB. ~$40. late 60’s WG. Very Laggy.
V2 UTG straddle. 20’s Asian guy. Bought in for $3k 2-3 orbits ago. Still around that. Wearing a hoodie that says “anti-nit campaign”.
H CO. $668. MAWG. Playing TAG. Both V’s should have noticed.
OTTH
Folds to H. Sees A6cc opens for $20. Only V1 & V2 call.
Flop ($55)
JhTd6h.
X, X, X
Turn ($55)
JhTd6h As
V1 $50, V2 call, H calls. Obviously a good turn but still don’t want to build a monster pot here.
River ($205)
JhTd6h As Ah
V1 $140, V2 AI (~$600 effective total). H? H has $598 behind. V1 has like $160 behind his bet.
We lose to AJ and AT both of which V2 can have. V2 can also have TT, JJ, broadway and the NF all of which he can be betting for value as he probably reads V1 as really laggy and H as tight meaning H can have AK/AQ here a lot, very rarely JJ/TT as I would have bombed it earlier.
Call/fold? Snap call/snap fold?
16 Replies
V2 probably squeezes with tt/jj???
v2 sat down 2-3 orbits and they know you're a tag??
V1 probably 3bet w/AT-AJ?
It's probably a snap call coz the flush got there. If no flush hits and river is a blank A, then it's either puke call or puke fold.
We beat all the flushes. We only lose to AJ/AT. Lots of ppl overvalue flushes even on paired board.
I think v2 w/AJ/AT raises a decent amount of the time on the turn.
I think we can put in a small raise ourself on the turn to charge draws and get max value.
There are gazillion of bad river cards that we don't want to see.
Yea we can make a sick fold if we get jammed on. V1 can't be crazy enough to jam combo draws right?
I'd call.
Less important than the hat, is how tight we think UTG is.
Also important is that at and aj could maybe consider flatting so Hero calls wider.
Against typical loose passives I find a snug fold. I don’t think we can lay it down given reads / assumptions of both players.
I do think the two better hands sometimes raise pre and sometimes raise turn. I also think both players could be betting or raising with worse for value.
Don't think I can fold here given how the hand was played, hero's had being under-repped, and descriptions of villains.
I would call in game, but for the first V to lead again into 2 people with like A4 would be pretty optimistic.
For the next guy to jam with a straight would also be pretty optimistic.
Lags and anti nits should probably 3! Jj or tt. 66 unlikely. Also, AK and AQ might 3! So we're kinda hoping someone has gone nuts with a crappy ace and someone else has a straight.
V1s stack size is important. Nobody is very deep and you might get some crying calls for 160 which is nice. If V1 wins and you are 2nd you still win some.
It's going to come down to reads. I'd call but no issue with a fold. Also might say fold on a tight BR.
You basically only beat bluffs and live guys don’t bluff here
$2/3/6 mandatory straddle. V1 SB. ~$40. late 60βs WG. Very Laggy. V2 UTG straddle. 20βs Asian guy. Bought in for $3k 2-3 orbits ago. Still around that. Wearing a hoodie that says βanti-nit campaignβ. H CO. $668. MAWG. Playing TAG. Both Vβs should have noticed. OTTHFolds to H. Sees A6cc opens for $20. Only V1 & V2 call. Flop ($55)JhTd6h. X, X, XTurn ($55)JhTd6h AsV1 $50, V2
How much is V1 starting with?
PRE - Seems ok. Maybe a tad too wide.
FLOP - three ways, I'd probably c-bet small with my entire range. I could also see arguments for betting large. I understand checking back bottom pair on JTX, because they could have so much Jx and Tx in their ranges, but I think we can make a lot of those hands fold by the river.
TURN - I might raise here. It depends on how often I think V2 is sand-bagging, letting V1 do the betting for him, versus how often I think V2 is just on a draw and V1 is FOS.
RIVER - Any reads on V2? How quickly did V2 jam? Did we get any sort of timing tell? Without any reads, it wold be hard for me to fold here.
In game, I'd be thinking that V2 might 3B pre with AJ or AT at some frequency, or donk flop at some frequency, or raise turn at some frequency, but might not jam river all the time with us behind him.
Also, there are no combos of ATs available, and he couldn't have been calling turn with AhTx, blocking the nut flush draw. I'd think AJdd has got to be a 3B pre at some frequency.
We unblock all the KQ combos, we unblock Q9hh and 98hh. Conceivably one of them could get here with AK/AQ. Something like AdKh or AdQh could make some sense. Also maybe KThh, the FDFD that picked up the GSSD and got there. Maybe also K9hh.
Doubtful either of them is going to put us on A6cc. Any straight or flush beats the AK/AQ combos we're likely to have.
If I was V2 holding AJ or AT, I'd be thinking that hero was on a draw that may have gotten there, and could over-call, or possibly raise the nut flush. If I had AT, I might be concerned about AJ. If I had AJ, I wouldn't want to let AT, TT, or JJ off the hook. If I raised with AJ or AT, I'd probably go smaller, like $400.
What does our range look like when we check back the flop and over-call the turn? Maybe AK/AQ with the Kh or Qh? If V2 thinks we have AxKh/AxQh, I'd think he'd feel pretty good raising with KXhh or QXhh. Then again, how often is V2 worried V1 shows up with AJ/AT?
I dunno. It's a weird spot. I don't think it's terrible to call it off, but I wouldn't expect to be good here more than 40%-50% of the time. We kind of need V2 to be getting a little OOL or doing something exploitative for whatever reason.
Pre: good
Flop: good
Turn: I raise here. We have 2p.
River: Ha, Im not good enough to fold here. I make the crying call.
You cannot fold this for 100bb - that would be ridiculous. Hearts got there, so there are tons of hands jamming for 100bb that you beat. 66 which we block, TT which should of 3b but it's live poker, and JJ which also should be 3b.
I'm also betting the flop small.
Since you checked the flop - you rarely have any boats as checking the flop with any pair+ is not something I see often multi way in position but it seemed to work out for you here since you hit gin gin.
Not sure why you are considering folding this, but in some casinos - this would qualify as a mini bad beat.
I could see folding if the player is one of the biggest nits ever, but vs anyone else - I just lose the 100bb if i'm beat.
We need to be good here around 40% of the time.
I'd expect AJ to be 3B pre sometimes, and ATo to sometimes be 3B or folded. Maybe we give him 4.5 of 6 possible combos of AJ and AT, and so we only need to find 3 combos we beat.
It seems like V2 could conceivably have that many combos of hands we beat that might play this way. I'd give him KQhh, 66, and maybe KThh/K9hh/QThh/Q9hh. We'd have to think he's capable of over-valuing worse hands, which seems possible, with how under-repped we are.
I'd really like to have some sort of read on V2. If we think he's capable of taking this line with more hands than just boats and the nut flush, we have to call. If we think he's flatting pre with AJ/AT more often than he's 3B'ing, and / or if we think he's only doing this with boats, it's closer.
I don't think I could find a fold here. There are just too many hands V2 can have that we beat, and too many worse hands in our range that he could be targeting for value. If we lose to AJ or AT, it's just a cooler.
At first, i didn't see that hearts came in. I think that makes it an easier call.
Yes, but if V2 has hearts, what's he putting V1 and hero on, when the board is paired? Hero has all the boats in his range.
Not saying it's a fold. Just saying that if he's doing this with just a flush, it's pretty reckless.
v2: "V1 is short stacked, so whatever. I made my flush. We're only 100bbs deep so I'm not folding. I'll make sure to win the max against a straight or an ace."
v2: "V1 is short stacked, so whatever. I made my flush. We're only 100bbs deep so I'm not folding. I'll make sure to win the max against a straight or an ace."
Yeah, maybe. It could be as simple as that for him.
I wonder if he's never putting us on AJ/AT when we check back the flop, and A6 just seems so unlikely.
With the heart hitting, it's very difficult to fold correctly.
V1 looks a lot like he has a straight, so assuming no bluffs and ability to read the obvious story V2 shouldn't be raising Ax for value and bluffs are major 3d chess in this spot. Maybe he 3bets JJ (maybe even TT), so it looks kind of bad ... but I wouldn't be shocked to see a lot of combos. of flushes shove here.
If you can correctly read V2 as not shoving 8h7h, and/or would be folding Q8s pre. ... maybe you can decide his 6 combos. of better are going to be a lot of his range. You have to be very sure to hero fold though.
Holy **** I'm jamming so hard against two blind hands.
But then I'm also either stabbing the flop, raising the turn, or both.