NL25 - KK vs x/r on the turn
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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HJ ($33.15) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 25]
HERO ($27.78)
BTN ($42.56) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 36.8% | Hands: 69]
SB ($124.58) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 74]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 33.8% | PFR: 22.5% | AGG: 30.3% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Cold Call: 26.7% | Hands: 72]
UTG ($37.10) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 44.1% | Hands: 74]
Dealt to Hero: K♦ K♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [18.77 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 8♠ Q♣ 8♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.98 (Rem. Stack: $26.20), BB Calls $0.98 (Rem. Stack: $23.42)
Turn ($3.26): 8♠ Q♣ 8♥ J♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.50 (Rem. Stack: $23.70), BB Raises To $6.48 (Rem. Stack: $16.94), HERO ? ? ?
Very tough spot, as he can have loads of 8x and straights. Can he do that with QJ for value? Maybe some FDs as well? If we call, then what is the plan OTR?
My rough range estimation
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.20% 31.20% 0.00% KdKs
MP3 68.80% 68.80% 0.00% 88, A8s, KTs, K8s, QJs, Q8s, J8s, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AcTc, Ac9c, A8o, KTo, QJo, T9o, 98o
7 Replies
Flop sizing is absurdly big. I think turn os very easy fold cause nobody is punting into you when you literally announce you have KK on the flop. I would say always the straight cause he can just raise an 8 always when you do this on flop
Why do you hate this sizing so much? It's just a 3/4 bet against someone who seems to be a loose player. Isn't our goal against these players is to extract value?
Villain does look a touch aggro, but this is rarely a bluff when your own line looks so strong.
These sort of spots are awkward for most players to bluff as a lot of the flop CR candidates and floats now have showdown value with a jack.
With your larger sizing on the flop he also should have less club floats to bluff with. I would fold.
The paired 8 is just a very neutralising card in terms of the nuts. OPs are no longer really worth a stack but you definitely have a huge equity advantage so it's a pretty clear small c-bet spot. Like when you c-bet large as your strategy you don't get to bet often enough to push your equity advantage while also filtering the range to where you don't have an advantage.
I also wouldn't advice splitting on the flop as its just too easy to face up your hand if you don't understand the dynamics of the spot very well
I understand paired boards are often happily called and floated by all sorts of pairs / gutshots / A-high, so maybe betting big in that case was a limiting factor to keep these in the pot. On a rainbow board we could certainly go 1/3, but since this one has FD and possible gutshots as well - 1/2 then?
I think 1/2 is still big but definitely fine. I'd just range bet B25 tbh
Based on what the exploitative solver GTOkiller shows for this exact spot.
Once you bet the turn and BB check-raises, his raising range absolutely crushes KK. In the real pool, this line is extremely under-bluffed.
KK has 0% continue in the exploitative solution. The EV of calling is deeply negative, while folding is 0 EV — meaning the pool’s raise range is simply too value-heavy to justify continuing.
So the solver’s view is:
Turn bet is fine, but once he raises, KK is a straightforward fold.
You’re getting raised by a range that massively dominates you, and the population almost never finds enough bluffs here to turn this into a call.
If you call turn, you’re basically guessing on rivers — and against this pool, that guess is losing money long term.
