NL25 - Q9s combo draw in 3-bet pot
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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HJ ($73.80) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 28]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 32.3% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 7.1% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 112]
HERO ($77.59)
SB ($25) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 10]
BB ($8.76) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 80% | Hands: 8]
UTG ($26.60) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 24]
Dealt to Hero: 9♦ Q♦
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.63, HERO Raises To $2, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $1.37
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.29 effective]
Flop ($4.35): J♦ T♣ 9♣
CO Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($4.35): J♦ T♣ 9♣ 4♦
CO Bets $4.40 (Rem. Stack: $18.60), HERO Calls $4.40 (Rem. Stack: $71.19)
River ($13.15): J♦ T♣ 9♣ 4♦ 9♥
CO Bets $18.60 (allin), HERO ? ? ?
Villain is a solid reg, capable of fighting back.
Flop: I think this is a very easy XB. This board smashes his range and I have plenty of equity + BDFD, it would be a massive waste to b/f this.
Turn: interesting card, as now I have pair+OESD+FD - in theory, a very powerful combo draw. I seriously considered jamming right now, but...Against his calling range, which would be:
- straights: KQs, 87s (if he calls those pre)
- sets: TT, 99, I can also give him one combo of 44 just in case. I don't think he has JJ in BTN vs CO, as this is a very easy 4b/c
- combo draw with AdQd, AcQc, possibly AcJc and KcJc, QcJc too
I do think he may have some additional hands like AJs, 88, 77, 98s and maybe A5s/A4s, so it would be better to keep them in, especially that his sizing indicates strength.
River: taking rake into consideration, we need 38.5%. Do we have this much? It honestly depends on how many hands he's gonna bluff / turn into a bluff. Does the below look reasonable?
Also 98s is a big question whether he would jam it like that, without it I have 36.8%.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% Qd9d
MP3 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% TT-99, 4h4s, KQs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AdQd, AcQc, QcJc, 7d6d, 7c6c, Ad5d, Ac5c, Ad4d, Ac4c
1 Reply
I think it's a call. Can't go folding top of range when we check back on one the wettest boards. There's a decent number of draws he could be bluffing with. There's a chance that we even beat some low frequency value like AA/AJ/JTs/98s.
I gave him a very conservative bluffing range of:
AQs/o no diamond or club
A8s,
A5s FD
76s FD
Value range of
TT, 99, Js9s, Ts9s
KQ, 87s
98s
We have around 38% equity, needing 37% equity. So it looks like a call (accounting for margin of error) unless we're very sure he's never bluffing, or we have specific reads like that he mostly 4B AQo CO vs BU 3B.
