NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
I like pretty much the opposite of all his picks lol. I think a lot of these teams prove something.
That's pretty standard when you read an ILP picks post.
Thought I saw the other day that Ohio State was -12.5, not sure why the line would have moved (even if only a couple points) toward Michigan.
Also, what are the odds on a triumphant return of Riverman if Michigan somehow pulls off a 5th straight win?
That's pretty standard when you read an ILP picks post.
Thought I saw the other day that Ohio State was -12.5, not sure why the line would have moved (even if only a couple points) toward Michigan.
Also, what are the odds on a triumphant return of Riverman if Michigan somehow pulls off a 5th straight win?
I heard Riverman is hanging out in some politics forum that several 2+2ers defected to awhile ago. Don't know the details. Hope he lives long and prospers.
PS: Last I checked I'm still beating out Joel Klatt's picks. This is actually one of my best years ever. Near 50%!
MICH has the chance to do something hilarious.
Bama is clearly a top 12 team. Why would you not want them in the playoffs?
Or is it just Bama hate?
I hate Bama with every fiber in my body, but if a 10-2 Bama team that beat Georgia somehow misses the playoffs, that's terrible for the game and a loss for every college football fan imo. That said, go Tigers!
I don't like seeing teams get ****ed by the system. I hated seeing TCU and Baylor get ****ed in 2014. I hated seeing FSU get ****ed in '23.
As it stands now, a bunch of teams are probably gonna get ****ed, so I'm rooting for teams to lose to thin the field down.
Of the bubble teams, I'm rooting for Vandy and Utah and Miami. I think Vandy is an awesome and lovable underdog, I think Utah has been banging on the door of greatness for two decades but hasn't quite gotten there yet, and I think college football is more fun when THE U is good. I also want Oregon to do well, and I think it would be awesome if Lane trolls everybody, stays at Ole Miss and wins the title.
So that means I'm rooting for Bama and OU to lose, they've had enough success, I'm sick of the SEC blue-bloods, so if anybody has to lose I want it to be them. I don't want 10-2 Bama to get ****ed, I want them to lose to Auburn so they don't deserve a bid.
Am I correct that UGA needs one of Bama or A&M to lose to get into the SECCG?
If neither loses, is UGA still getting a bye as a one loss non-CG participant?
Assuming we beat Tech, of course. I saw them play last week. They can have all the nerd, impotent rage in the world for clean old fashioned hate, and they’re not beating the Bulldogs.
OM, Bama and ATM still play. If all win, it's ATM vs Bama
If either Bama or ATM lose, it's the one that won vs UGA
If both lose and OM wins, it's UGA vs OM
if all 3 lose, it's UGA vs ATM
If 12-0 ATM beats 10-2 Bama, ATM is probably #2, IU/OSU loser drops to #3 and I don't know if TT jumps UGA or not if they win the B12. The 5 seed gets a home game against UNT/Tulane, then plays the 4 seed anyway, so I don't think it matters a ton if you're 4 or 5
If 10-2 Bama beats 12-0 ATM, I also have no idea what happens. Does Bama jump to #4? Does ATM stay in the top 4? It would be weird to have UGA behind Bama when Bama beat them h2h, also won the conference and also picked up yet another massive win. Should ATM drop below UGA? their resume certainly says so but now you are punishing them for playing the CCG
I don't like seeing teams get ****ed by the system. I hated seeing TCU and Baylor get ****ed in 2014. I hated seeing FSU get ****ed in '23.As it stands now, a bunch of teams are probably gonna get ****ed, so I'm rooting for teams to lose to thin the field down.Of the bubble teams, I'm rooting for Vandy and Utah and Miami. I think Vandy is an awesome and lovable underdog, I thin
Michigan fans are legit worried they're gonna get ****ed. I have spent zero seconds worrying about this scenario. I would insta-snap call at living in a universe where we beat Ohio State and don't make the playoffs.
I would insta-snap call at living in a universe where we beat Ohio State and don't make the playoffs.
Beating Ohio State would 100% make this season a resounding success, and if they get into the playoffs as a result that's just gravy.
Very unlikely it happens, but as last year proved there is always a chance.
Man, I am talking myself into Texas to make it at 2%
This feels like 2014 where Baylor and TCU both finished 11-1. TCU was a little better, but Baylor won h2h, so the committee didn't know what to do so they just said **** it and took OSU instead, where OSU was worse than both teams AND had a worse resume than both teams.
I have no idea how they are gonna choose between 10-2 Miami, 10-2 Vandy and 10-2 Utah for the last spot if it comes down to that. Miami will have one great win over ND, a second potentially ranked win over Pitt, then very little else, and two losses to unranked or fringe teams. Vandy will have only 1 ranked win over UT, but both losses really tough. Utah is pretty clearly 3rd I guess. On paper the two "best" losses (although do people really think BYU is better than Texas?) but the least compelling ranked wins (just ASU)
They might just say "**** it who has the best wins" which is clearly Texas. (@ ATM, n Oklahoma, Vandy)
Texas and Michigan are adjacent - if we think Michigan can jump everbody by beating OSU at home, why can't Texas do it by beating ATM on the road?
I think it should be Miami - if the Notre Dame win had happened midseason instead of Week 1, they'd be #9 right now, and it's not like Miami and ND are obviously different teams than they were then.
To be clear, I will be very surprised if they choose Texas, but I don't know if I would be 50-1 surprised
If Michigan beats Ohio State and one of Bama or Ole Miss loses I think they get in. They probably need Tech to win the B12CG too. I don't really see an 11-2 BYU being ahead of Michigan, but Tech probably would at 11-2. Can't see justifying Oklahoma even if they lose falling behind Michigan when they pounded them h2h, but then again ND is several spots ahead of Miami. Shrugs.
Texas is at home vs A&M
I'd be shocked if they chose Texas, but Texas delivers good TV ratings, and they love the Mannings and Arch has a good redemption story from not being able to hit the broad side of a barn to 3 top 10 wins.
I think on a good day Texas could beat anyone in the country, except Georgia, those ****ers have our number.
Six seven!
just bet another 50k contracts on Miami to playoff at 29-30%, have over 100k now
The pricing all week was consistent with Miami and Vandy both eventually being ahead of Utah if they won out, but 50/50 which one of those 2 would be ahead.
With Miami at 12 and Vandy still stuck at 14 it seems clear that Miami is certainly more likely to be ahead of Vandy if they both win their final games?
Miami is playing the #22 team on the road and Vandy is playing the #19 team. Unless Vandy wins by 40, I don't see how they jump 2 spots?
Miami is a lock to jump Alabama or ND if they lose, a lock to jump BYU if they lose twice.
I think they are EXTREMELY likely to jump Ole Miss if Ole Miss loses, especially if Lane then leaves. Like 95%+ likely.
Even if you assume they can't jump Oregon (which I think they totally could) and they would get jumped by Texas and Michigan if those teams win, 30% is still printin g
Like, the lines aren't moving at all, I feel like I am taking crazy pills
Is Ole Miss locked in? I would think they drop below OU, Bama and ND with a loss (provided those 3 win). Would they drop below BYU? I feel like BYU is odd man out with 1 loss which feels wrong.
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just bet another 50k contracts on Miami to playoff at 29-30%, have over 100k now The pricing all week was consistent with Miami and Vandy both eventually being ahead of Utah if they won out, but 50/50 which one of those 2 would be ahead.With Miami at 12 and Vandy still stuck at 14 it seems clear that Miami is certainly more likely to be ahead of Vandy if they both win their fin
Just saw this post. I’m not sold Miami jumps Ole Miss, maybe if they lose AND Lane leaves. Not sure what the odds should be on that. Those two results seem fairly correlated
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Ole miss feels stone dead to make the playoffs to me. Like it's a guarantee they lose and don't make it.
Obviously I know they aren't.
You can buy NO on Lane to be the next UF coach at 65% on Kalshi and NO on him to be the next LSU coach at 35%, so they're pricing it close to 100% that he leaves
Granted it won't be the final thing but the current projected bracket looks great. Feels like every team but tulane could win it all.
It won't feel that way when Miami is replace by SMU or to a greater extent Virginia
Granted it won't be the final thing but the current projected bracket looks great. Feels like every team but tulane could win it all.
It won't feel that way when Miami is replace by SMU or to a greater extent Virginia
yeah, and zero first round rematches, zero second round rematches and very likely no 3rd round rematches (oregon/IU is the only possibility, and that's a 3 game parlay)
also only 1 in-conference matchup first round, and it's still a fun one. Bama @ Ole Miss (if Lane stays) would be great. And zero in-conference second round games is awesome.
Just hope VT upsets UVA and we get Miami in there
