NL25 - AKs 3-bet facing a cold 4b and AI

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($57.73) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 20.9% | AGG: 28.9% | Hands: 89]
BB ($9.85) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 5]
UTG ($73.03) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 26.7% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 46]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 21.4% | Hands: 39]
HERO ($25)
BTN ($22.05) [VPIP: 41.7% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 30.4% | Hands: 37]

Dealt to Hero: K♦ A♦

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.50, HERO Raises To $1.80, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $6, BB Raises To $9.85 (allin), HJ Folds, HERO ? ? ?

Hi guys, I have quite interesting hand here. I 3-bet reg from CO with AKs, usual stuff. However, SB decides to cold 4b. Previously, he looked like a nit, but recently I saw him opening up. Not sure how likely he is to pull some moves. But then, a player with 40 BBs goes cold 5b AI. I am a little bit puzzle what's going here. It is very likely that at least one of them has KK+. If I would have to assign cold 4b range, it would be { QQ+, AKo, AQs+ }, maybe AQo every now and then (he won't call AI with AQs I assume), but I 3-bet the UTG, so that also signals more strength. I estimate BBs range to be a bit wider, possibly { TT+, AKo, AQs }.

Now I tried to calculate the EV of this situation, let me know what you think.


1. I jam and reg folds - I am in a big pot with fishy player with tons of dead money. If { QQ+, AKo, AQs+ } is 21 combos and AQs is 3 combos, I estimate my FEQ to be 3/24 ~~12.5%.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 45.70% 34.21% 11.49% AKs
CO 54.30% 42.81% 11.49% TT+, AQs+, AKo

Total pot ($26.20 * 0.95 after rake) = $24.89 * 45.7% equity = $11.37 - $8.05 [my call to fish's all-in] = $3.32 * 12.5% chance of a HU all-in with a fish = $0.41


2. I go all-in, reg calls = this will happen 87.5% of the time (cause I estimated my FEQ to be 12.5%)

Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.39% 15.37% 9.02% AKs
MP3 39.17% 31.58% 7.59% QQ+, AKs, AKo
CO 36.44% 32.59% 3.85% TT+, AQs+, AKo


a) main pot = 3*$9.85 + $0.50 = $30.05 * 0.95 = $28.55 [rake taken so far: $1.50]
My equity here is = 24.39%
= $28.55 * 25.82% = $6.96 - $8.05 [investment] = -$1.09

b) side pot = 2 * ($25 - $9.85) - $0.50 rake [cause $2 is a cap and $1.50 has been already taken] = $29.8
My equity here is = 41.9%

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.90% 22.62% 19.28% AKs
MP3 58.10% 38.81% 19.28% QQ+, AKs, AKo



= $29.8 * 41.9% = $12.49 - $10.15 [investment that is over $9.85 that counts towards main pot] = $2.33

Total all-in EV = -$1.09 + $2.33 = $1.24 * 87.5% = [COLOR="SeaGreen"]$1.08[/COLOR]


Total EV:

$0.41 + $1.08 = $1.49

Does that sound about right? What do you think?