1/2: AKo BB vs UTG nit in multiway pot — river thin value bet or check?

I think the hand is played reasonably up to the river. I could see arguments for going ahead and squeezing preflop given the dead money -- AK isn't doing horribly against UTG's range, and you have an easy fold to jam. I could also see arguments for just folding, as you don't really have to continue with much of anything versus 10x OOP.

On the river, I think $60 is probably too small, and the EV of checking and hoping someone stabs with worse is probably higher than betting 22% pot or whatever, but I could be wrong. Seems like check or bet-fold for $100ish would be my move.

I think you should bet a little bigger on the river. UTG1 has plenty of AQ and AJ and who knows what button could show up with to call light.

I do think check river is a reasonable option to induce and pot control.

Pre I would just flat given this enormous open from a nit. You could even justify folding. Never 3bing.

Grunch:

PRE - I don't hate the flat call, but I could see 3B'ing and folding to a 4B.

FLOP - If the c-bet was smaller, I'd be very tempted to x/r. But someone could have AT/A5 here, so I think we just call and see what happens on the turn.

TURN - When the turn checks through on a BDFD, I'd think we have the best hand a lot.

RIVER - Hmmm...what flushes would anyone have here? Maybe just some suited Broadway hearts combo that had the GSSD on the flop, so KQhh, KJhh, QJhh. I'd think some of those hands stab on the turn at some frequency, especially if the BTN is loose.

If we bet, it's hard to think we'll get called by worse. I don't think AQ/AJ combos make up a big chunk of anyone's range when they check turn. When UTG c-bets large, multi-way, I'd think he'd barrel turn with AQ/AJ, and UTG1 would bet those hands on the turn when UTG checks.

I'd think we're looking at a lot of JJ-KK and missed draws, plus maybe some weaker AX. Someone could still have A2, A5, or A7, though A5/A2 seem unlikely when the turn checks through.

So, I don't like block betting, because I think JJ-KK are just going to fold, and aces-up are just going to call. But if we check, we might expect someone to bet worse for value, or try to bluff. If UTG or UTG1 bets, and the BTN raises, we can just fold and save ourselves a bet.

I think OP played it fine. I prefer checking and calling a small bet on the river. I don’t think a small blocking bet is bad. I agree with doc that after the turn checks thru, you probably have best hand. Does any V now call you with worse or fold with better? A blocking bet could represent a sucker bet for a made flush and fold out A5. But I prefer checking.

Thanks everyone.

Results:

UTG folded JJ.

UTG1 just called with TT (middle set).

Is poker just dead these days?

I think it is wildly optimistic thinking that two nits are going to call a TPMK hand with a flush draw hitting on the river. I agree the set should have bet out on the turn, but would you have called a 1/2 PSB?

1. Exactly why I bet $60 instead of the suggested $100. To get the crying call from AQ/AJ. But perhaps, even that is too optimistic these days. Are you saying once the turn checks through, I should be checking river for that reason?

2. No, I absolutely wouldn’t call a dime if this rock bet turn.

You should likely be bluffing the hell out of these guys (not in this spot, I'm talking more like heads up spots) until they are forced to open up their ranges somewhat.

Poker is a game where mathematically you have to continue with a certain percentage of your range. In live cash you can get away with nitting it up preflop (with the huge standard raise sizes plus people still pay nits off), but post flop there will still be challenging flops where you can exploit their nitty tendencies.

Nit opens UTG, you defend BB and flop comes 886. Check raise flop, barrel turn, jam river. These nits are going to fold AA.

I mean use your own best judgement, but you seem pretty well dialed in with how these people are playing. There are likely boards and lines where they are massively over folding and open to exploitation. The way to beat a nit is not to out nit them.

As for the hand you posted, I'm a little skeptical that there's not enough value to be had to raise either preflop or on the flop. That being said you may be seeing the situation correctly given results, so in that case well played.

You see how much value the guy with TT missed out on? They're still making mistakes. You've just got to figure out ways to exploit the mistakes they are making. In this case you exploited their nittiness by not putting more in the pot and basically lost the minimum against a set.

As for your questions, I wouldn't bet river when the flush comes in and you're this multiway, even though backdoor flushes are relatively unlikely.

On the turn if you're thinking about leading why not just check-raise flop instead? In these live multiway spots there will often be a player or two that will call down with a weak Ax, and you will know who to beware of when they call the check raise. That being said, given results you were likely correct to just call. I'm just saying in general if your hand is strong enough to lead a blank turn into this many opponents then it's probably strong enough to check raise the flop. There's no requirement that you stack off after you check raise either.

Anyway good luck at the tables!

Posting to really comment on the 2nd paragraph. AKo vs JJ+,AK, and some AQ (I just used AQs), H is a big favorite on ATXr. Greater than 3:1. If they've the one combo of Aces, yeah H is toast, but as you said, mathematically, they have a lot of other stuff too.

Pf, I don't mind the overcall. That range beats H pretty soundly. Also, is H really calling a 4! here from UTG? I don't feel like 3!/f'ing in this situation. OTOH, is UTG 4!'ing with anything besides AA, and maybe KK if they're feeling daring?

ROFL at TT Guy getting basically the minimum in a total dream situation.

Thanks but I never considered donk betting turn. Not sure where you read that.

Yeah I agree a call is best against that range. My comment about being skeptical there's not enough value to be had to 3-bet preflop was more questioning whether the range is actually that tight. The OP's reads seemed pretty spot on though and given the preflop sizing tell I think he made the right decision.

I was referring to your question 2 at the end of your first post.

I'm not saying you do this but for some reason a lot of live players don't check raise flop enough, but tend to call then lead turn with hands that are standard check raises.

If they're nits, I wouldn't expect them to call with worse AX. Your river lead just looks too strong, even with the small size. The challenge with betting your hand for value is that you only get called by better.

It's interesting to consider if our hand is too strong to turn into a bluff when the turn checks through. We're really the only one with an uncapped range getting to the river, such that we're probably the only one who can credibly rep a flush. If we think they're capped at aces up, and occasionally maybe sets, I'd think a big bet from the BB folds out enough better hands to make it higher EV than a small block bet. The 2P and set combos our opponents are likely to have don't block our flushes, fwiw.

Just the same, our hand has just enough SDV that I'd rather not turn it into a bluff. If the river checks through, and we have to show down, it's not the worst thing for our opponents to see we're not always 3B'ing AK from the BB. The next time, we can 3B it, and generate more fold equity, assuming they remember and therefore assign us a very strong range of QQ+.

I call that the delayed check raise. See a lot of bad regs and recs doing it.

It's an awesome line with value against opponents who will spaz in response. But otherwise it's pretty fishy.

I mean, the money you make in poker isn't just from spewy fish calling down with bad hands. It's also from making the maximum (and losing the minimum) in cooler spots versus competent and semi-competent players.

This is basically a set-up hand where TT should have gotten stacks in at some point, but ended up winning crumbs. That's a huge win for you and hardly an example of poker being dead IMO.

I think it’s because, nowadays, check raising flop gets everything worse (including AQ) to fold in that spot, while check/calling allows AQ to keep putting in more money in the pot on later streets.