AKo in the CO facing any two cards and a terrible player
1/2. Rake 6+3+1 to 60.
V1 (500) is a regular who plays any two cards. Two orbits ago, he cold bluffed 82o.
V2 (300) is a LAG and a terrible player. Thinking he had the best hand, he bet big on the turn with middle-pair.
Hero (225) is a TAG but Vs pay no attention.
OTTH
V1 in the LJ opens 12. Hero in the CO with AsKh raises to 35. V2 in the BB calls. Three-way.
Flop (96): Jh8c5d
Vs check. Hero?
18 Replies
Not a good flop. I would check and reevaluate, probably x/f. It doesn't matter they are loose or bad players and you had the best hand preflop.
Lol, reg who plays ATC. I guess he plays like 20 hours a week and loses significantly.
Small mistake in the OP, doesn't change anything: V1 called the 3bet preflop.
I think this is a pretty standard check back on the flop. I might call a small turn stab unimproved, but it's dangerous calling A-high versus fish because they often bluff their showdown value for no reason. Obviously stacking off versus these two if we hit an A or K.
Yeah, there are some flops which you miss which you could fire as a bluff or for protection, but this is not a good flop with 2 middle cards. You are probably behind someone, and it is not a good flop to bluff on. So check back and hope to hit the turn. Reevaluate based on the card and action.
Pure check imo. It’s a bad board for both our hand and our range and even if we’re ahead they are going to make it hard to win.
Against bad regs either shove or check both should be +ev.
Good implied odds if they will bluff into Hero's turned or river pair.
Against bad regs either shove or check both should be +ev.
Good implied odds if they will bluff into Hero's turned or river pair.
You have twice pot. Don't think you can shove into two players on this flop with over cards.
When it checks through and an ace or king hits, it looks like you have AK, so I don't think they bluff that much. If you had JJ+ and SPR of 2, you probably would have cbet that flop.
V1 in the LJ opens 12. Hero in the CO with AsKh raises to 35. V2 in the BB calls. Three-way.
Flop (96): Jh8c5d
Vs check. Hero? Hero checks.
Turn: Ts
V2 Checks. V1 ATC bets 25. Hero?
Hero calls. With 165 back, we're not quite committed yet, have a 4 out draw to the nuts, 6 outs to a likely better TP, and I don't think you're dead yet.
Very surprised V2 hasn't blasted off on J85Tr. Really? They have nothing on this? "Block-raising", if that can be a thing like "TINO", might not be bad. V1 seems stabby (unless you've the read they like to slowplay/milk pots), V2 doesn't sound like they'd check value, and I really don't want V2 'pouncing on weakness' with a stupid mega-x/raise we can't call. So beat them with a r/f to 80 or so.
(Edit, yeah, that is 1/2 H's stack and folding would be dumb. Ok, call then. Or shove.)
I'd probably 3! bigger pre against an ATC raise. You can exploitatively raise 4-5x and still get called.
Flop: Nothing to do but check.
Turn: Obviously we are continuing. With stack sizes call or jam. Against a guy capable of bluffing off with air, I think call is best. Jamming would be more interesting against players who might fold a pair, as described neither of these two sound like they're folding.
So call and maybe we bluffcatch some rivers.
I don't mind a turn shove. It is about a pot sized bet including the chips from your call. His turn bet is small. You could have an overpair. It might go through enough plus your equity if called.
I would shove the turn. They don't sound like the best players to get to fold. However, you are at least 20% against a calling range. You are 20-25% against a pair, 9% against 2-pair or a set, and you have KQ and other draws crushed.
So you if you take the pot 1/3 of the time, shoving is better than folding. The gain from taking the pot is much greater than the loss of getting it in with equity. Flat calling and drawing and maybe hoping the river gets checked and ace high is good is a little better than folding, but not hugely profitable.
The action is weak and you 3-betted. You might have cbetted with and overpair, but you could so could be shoving an overpair or top or 2nd set. Presumably TT-AA is a big part of your 3! range and 1/2 players are not going to think you 3-betted light.
I would shove the turn. They don't sound like the best players to get to fold. However, you are at least 20% against a calling range. You are 20-25% against a pair, 9% against 2-pair or a set, and you have KQ and other draws crushed.So you if you take the pot 1/3 of the time, shoving is better than folding. The gain from taking the pot is much greater than the loss of getting i
I think the biggest argument against shoving is we know V will have some air in his range and we're IP. Call/call is the best way to maximize value from that portion of his range.
Not really. If we think V is overbluffing, then AK is as good as AJ for bluff catching. OP doesn't really provide enough information on the 82o hand. But I think we can expect V to reveal a lot with his bet size. I'd have to be real confident to bluff catch a big bet OTR, but IME a lot of bluffy players at these stakes will bet out in this spot with a draw like 76 or 64 and then on the river they either give up or they will bet small again and they rarely turn a made hand like middle or bottom pair into a bluff.
So absent some additional reads, I'd snap against a $35-$50 river and if V checks the river, then I'd assume SDV and consider turning my AK into a bluff and jam if I believe bluffy V has a fold button with a hand like 8x. I think we get called by a lot of Tx/8x OTT since a lot of it also has a SD, but if the draws brick river I don't think V is calling a jam. And some Vs might even let go of Jx in this line OTR but never OTT.
Don't get me wrong, I don't hate the jam. Jamming is probably +EV, but against a player we suspect might be bluffing too much I think calling and assessing river might be slightly better. Especially if our assumption is that V will call our jam with anything he might value bet on the river.
The whole hand
V1 ATC in the LJ opens 12. Hero in the CO with AsKh raises to 35. V2 in the BB calls. Three-way.
Flop (96): Jh8c5d
Vs check. Hero? Hero checks.
Turn: Ts (96)
V2 Checks. V1 ATC bets 25. Hero? Hero calls. V2 folds.
River: Jc (146)
V1 ATC bets 70. Hero folds. V mucks.
I think folding this river is a mistake if we believe V is capable of bluffing. The size is big enough to make me think, but if V had Jx or a boat I think he's probably going $100+. If we were ahead on the turn, we are still ahead now and V probably would check pairs. I don't think 2nd pair is betting for value as a population read. So I think he really has Jx or air when he bets.
A V we know is willing to bluff air has more bluffs than he has Jx.