PAHWM vs a hyper-LAG Russian

My bad. After posting above I realized I fat-fingered the pot size after his bet on the turn. My mistake.

It was $195 pre rake/drop, then $189 or $190 after rake/drop, plus V's $60 makes it $249/$250, not $150, as I typed it.

If we call it's $310 with $365 behind.

Maybe I was overthinking the spot, but in game I thought it was weird that he downbet on a BDFD card, when ordinarily I'd expect low stakes players to go huge with both value and bluffs. I was concerned that if I just called, I'd be letting his draws see the river for cheap, and possibly losing value from his over-pairs on a lot of different river cards.

Like, if he has over pairs, is he going to barrel or check-call an over bet jam if the river is an over-card to his PP, or a flush card? Is he going to barrel with his bluffs, after I've snapped him off several times with weak 1P?

Given that I'd seen him bet-3B jam turn with just TPTK on a very scary board, it seemed to me that he might just want to go with his value hands here, whereas he might decide to just check river with all his bluffs and thin value, rather than have me snap him off again. If he would continue with value vs a raise, but not bet thin or bluff on the river, and not call a jam, we'd be leaving a lot of money on the table by just calling.

See, I think a raise here after we just call flop looks spazzy, like we're FOS, raising with a draw or over-playing something. If he slow-played a big PP, I think he jams. If he's drawing, he might still jam with equity to improve vs our over-pairs. But if we call again I think he shuts it down on a lot of rivers when he bricks.

Interesting suggestion for responding to a river check. Hard to see what hands would take this line, then check river, and flat call a bet of any size, much less raise, when we've raised pre, bet-called flop, and called turn. If he's checking over-pairs to bluff-catch, I'd think we'd want to bet big, not small.

His line so far is fairly polar, no? If he checks river, I'd think he's checking hoping to induce, or hoping we'll check back, not checking to raise, call or fold depending on our bet size.

Call turn, call any river, if he checks river on a brick, bet tiny so he will spazz

It's a little bit tricky to debate this with you because you have live reads which are more valuable than generic reads I'd refer to purely based on the label we put on the villain. I would continue calling down as I am not worried about any river card and neither is villain with most of his range. This is about as safe a board as they come for both of us funnily enough. I shove over his river bet assuming we called turn and he bet river again. He checks to us I also shove. Money goes in no matter what line we take.

With that being said. If you raise, that's fine and you obviously call jams.

Does this thread really need to drag out any further?

Need 17% to call here so you have direct odds to call against a straight and almost direct odds against a better 4 or a low boat. Plus, overpairs and spew are clearly possible. There is no decision here other than to call.

So we're the CO? I'm cool with whatever preflop after one limp. At looser tables where 2 of the 3 behind will often come in to drag in the limper I'd probably just overlimp, but at tighter tables I'm fine with an open (although this is about the minimum conditions to do so), imo.

SPR is 11 and we have a well disguised hand that we want to play for stacks with. The main Villain may not have his typical aggression thanks to us inducing plus his buddy being in the hand. So I'd just PSB each street to setup a reasonable river shove. If we're coolered it's thanks to preflop. So not in love with our sizing as it will make it difficult to play for stacks by the river unless this guy spazzes yet again.

Facing the flop check/raise, I think I prefer a call. We'll trivially be able to play for stacks by the river in position. We allow him to continue going nuts with air if that is what he is indeed doing. About the only benefit to reraising now is preventing him from making a hero fold of JJ/etc. later on a bad run out, but in general there won't be too many scary runouts on this board.

ETA (turn): In general, I find downbets on the turn after decent flop action to often be a monster. So I MUBSily see 43 here like always. But I guess it could just be some smaller overpair that all of a sudden freaked out that they are up against a bigger overpair. Overall, I'm still cool playing for stacks so the question is whether we can still do that just flatting. If we flat and I've mathed right, the pot will be $315 and we'll have $365 back. Will he call off $365 after betting $100 on the river? Probably? Meanwhile we keep his spazz in and don't risk hero folds now, although risking some scare cards on the river? Inbetween spot, imo. A small raise might be best here?

ERA (after turn action): I think our turn raise is probably a bit too massive as we don't want to have 77/etc. hero fold. Are we thinking of folding to the shove? I mean, I say this as someone who rarely sees decent $500+ stacks go in in my game, but, I mean, we can't fold, right? Although admittedly it does suck that we're repping a big overpear and he doesn't seem to care. Hopefully we're just up against a tarping AA?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Fold, he might have quads

I appreciate you taking the time to comment. Maybe you or others can challenge the logic I was using in game.

I didn't like the idea of just flatting his less than 1/3 pot bet. I think he has a lot of over-pairs in his range, and there are a lot of river cards that could kill the action and make him give up on his bluffs or thin value bets if we flat call again. I didn't want to let him see a cheap river card that might either boat him up or let him off the hook, or lead me to make a MUBsy check-back and lose value from a hand that might be willing to put more money in on the turn.

In hindsight, a PSB on the flop may have been better than my 2/3 PSB, if only because it does make it easier to get stacks in on a later street.

It's interesting to consider what the turn down-bet means generally, from the population, versus what it might mean from him specifically.

I think the population would often either check to trap with a monster, or if they somehow improved after x/r'ing as a bluff or over-playing something marginal, they'd bet bigger, because it's so hard for them to actually have a hand as strong as they do.

If they want to bet "small" with a nutted hand, I think they'd bet around 1/2 pot, not less than 1/3 pot, leaving more than a PSB behind, because there's such a risk we'll fold when they jam river in this line. I'm sure I'd fold all my big PP's on the river if he jams.

With this V, having seen him make huge bets with thick value and small bets with bluffs, I read it as weak, possibly two over-cards that picked up a BDFD and wanted to set a cheap price to hit, or a PP that wasn't quite as confident after I call the flop x/r.

I'm not sure I really understand the logic of flatting pre, x/r'ing the flop, and then down-betting turn with his over-pairs, but V seemed to be button-clicking a lot, so it seemed possible that he may have "gotten lost" and was sort of probing with this smaller sizing.

I didn't think he'd fold his best PP's or his flush draws to a raise, and he might spaz-shove with them. While it seemed possible he might fold some middling PP's, I didn't think I could get any value from those hands on the river if I just flat called, so I decided to raise, targeting his premium PP's that were trapping and his bluffs that picked up the BDFD.

No, I definitely wasn't thinking about folding, getting almost 5:1. We're ahead of most of his range, and even if he has us beat somehow, there's no hand he can have that has us drawing dead.

It sucks if he's boated up, but I think even in that scenario we have 7 outs, so around 16%, which is almost enough to make us indifferent. If he has a straight, we have 10 boat outs and 3-7 chop outs, which is plenty. If he has higher trips, we have 4-8 straight outs, 3 boat outs, and 6 chop outs.

Hero calls (obviously).

i think you should play some online. i believe if you play like 10 or 20k hands youll realize pretty quickly no single hand is this important

We're discussing how to play a game. Nothing posted here is important at all, unless someone is playing with money they need to survive, in which case it's really only important to them, and no one should be in that situation.

It's fine if people want to say it's just a cooler, or whatever. I posted it because I thought the flop and turn decisions were interesting and / or potentially debatable given V's prior play.