A5s in CO vs LAG open in HJ: 3bet/Call/Fold?

I'm curious to hear from other players why this wouldn't be either an automatic 3! or a mundane fold. You are deeper than normal, tbf.

Decent player, I certainly don't want to go to war with A5s, and I imagine V views you as a touch nitty: 3!/f. And onto the next hand.

I think 3b/fold strategy is fine here. But then again, a lag might be calling 3bets too wide, hence folding is probably preferable.
So maybe 3b 5% of the time here then fold the other 95% of the time.

The odds of flopping a flush draw are about the same as flopping a set. There's 3 other players (BUT, SB, BB) I need to consider. If BUT is likely to fold then I would likely call. If not, V's ISO appears to be a wide range that will fold above the break even percent often enough that a 3! to 40 will show immediate profit. If V calls we have position, an A blocker, and an SPR of just over 4 (pot =76 after rake).

I am not folding here. I probably find the fold against a passive fish who is splitting his range pre, but playing deeper against a guy who is raising 35% of hands (probably more from the HJ) I think 3b has to be good. I might consider flatting depending on the game meta (Are there whales behind? Have I already 3b a bunch?) but would probably rather flat a hand like ATs versus this player.

Is this their standard open? Playing 45/35 in 9-handed poker for 6x opens would be insane if it weren't for even the supposed pros not finding the 3b here...

Moving to a LAG's direct left and immediately 3B'ing him feels like we may be opening the door to unanticipated outcomes. If our image is nitty, he may already be adjusting. I'd rather move to be sitting opposite him, with an equal number of opponents between us on each side.

My standard strat in the CO would be to play 3B or fold. The standard adjustment would be to just flat when the opener is solid and the players left to act are bad regs or recs who'll call too much and make more mistakes post. I also don't mind playing low suited aces multi-way when we're in late position.

Depending on the table dynamics, I think flatting could be fine, if not preferable to 3B'ing. If we're likely to get squeezed, I'd want to play 3B or fold more.

As a general heuristic I like opening suited wheel aces more than 3B'ing them. Facing a raise in front of us, I tend to call with them more often than 3B when there are still opponents left to act and we're likely to have position post flop. But I'll 3B them more from the blinds, especially versus LP opens.

I guess the logic at play for me is I lean towards playing A5s more passively in position and playing it more aggressively OOP, at least pre, because we'll realize better IP post.

In this spot, I think flatting is marginally higher EV than 3B'ing. Folding seems a bit too nitty, especially after moving to V's left.

The data in the OP read isn't painting a clear picture - raising KQo is a bit looser than the population but alone doesn't tell me much. 45/35 makes it seem like he will have a lot more sketchy opens. Any examples? And is $12 a normal raise over one limper?
The thing is, we know the GTO 3b includes A5s as "a bluff" but then the GTO doesn't open to 6x, right? So I kinda feel like 3b range in this spot wants to be tighter value like 88+, AJo/ATo, A9s, KQs stuff. I guess A5s isn't bad to mix it up.
Also not sure if being direct to the left of a good LAG is more profitable. The maxim is "money flows to the left" and the good player to your right will act like a dam on all the fishy money.

With high rake and limper, 3 players left to act don't think this is particularly good spot for a light 3!

I've played a fair amount of 1/2 and 10 or 12 is a very standard opening size even for LAGs.

Always 3b in these positions with his pfr%.

I'm aware, and I'm saying this thread is why.

i mean the stats are obviously going to be wrong but you should 3b this hand regardless

fwiw i dont think its possible for him to have a 45 vpip and a pfr that close with such a low 3b unless the entire table is open limping. these are also extreme whale numbers at 6 handed let alone 9 handed table and would guess hes probably closer to like 25/18 if the most memorable vpip you've seen is kqo in ep (lol)

What's the reasoning for equal opponents between hero and LAG on each side?

Hand continues

Limp. V in HJ raises to 12. Hero in the CO with Ad5d. Hero? Hero bets 35. Limper folds. V calls. Heads-up.

Flop (65): 9d4s7c

V checks. Hero?

I'm gonna be real boring here and say literally all options are on the table here

Mixing for large size (B66+) is the most solver-approved, which inherently means that both a check and a large bet with this hand can't be too terrible.

I think a very small bet with range is the best exploit of the field but is going to be a disaster if you don't know what you're doing with follow up actions and such.

Betting a medium size is probably fine for reasons that aren't immediately obvious to me.

Flops are so overrated lol, let's see the next action!

Agreed on all fronts, but (un)luckily no one knows what to do with those numbers so it doesn't get engaged with anyway.

H checks back on a pretty unsuccessful flop for HJ open-call/CO 3! ranges and an overconfident LAG V. I'm a touch insulted at the OOP call tbh.

At this ~5 SPR, you could still get it in with aggro play on turn and river, so I don't think you're even capped. You 'could' decide to x-back 99/77 on this. If you think that'd be silly, then sure, b25/call or 3!-shove. But that's a levelling war I think V has more experience with than you.

Basically, I want to see a free turn. All you have are backdoors and Ace-high.

with your image, do what you would do with KK.

i dont think 3b pre is good in HJ. CO or BTN yes. im guessing folding pre is best here. if you are deep with lots of loose passive guys that play face up behind you calling cant be that bad either.

I'm folding here based on the correctly called his bluff catchers and reads people well on later streets. So much of the ev from A5s is based on him not doing these things better than average and our position helping us more than it will versus someone that does these so well that in a say 120 hand sample size you have multiple examples of him being good at this. Unless you have evidence that reading you is harder than reading those he has already successfully read him always calling correctly is worrisome.

My instinct was that V was making his worst errors postflop, barreling four times, getting caught once with ace-high, but correctly calling down other FOS players who limped preflop then played for stacks with him. I watched him correctly tank-fold in spot where he had a 33 percent equity, and he then told me: I had just barely the equity to call. But he played too many hands. He bought in for 800, and I saw his stack dwindle to 370. His biggest error was dispensing his bad hands by betting aggressively post-flop. I wanted to be in position with a good hand, and now I had A5s and thought: everyone on 2+2 will argue about it.

I would add that V's staying at the hotel with his family. His well dressed fifty-nine year old father checked-in on him. V said: probably in a few hours, or when I lose my stack. V's dad smiled and patted V on the back. V's on vacation. I know these types of reads bore you online types. But Vs staying with comfortably retired dad on vacation is ready to lose his stack. He's here to have fun. He knows he makes mistakes. He's looking to lose his money in a few hours, just like his dad.

I sometimes confuse my left and right, and now I think money goes to the left, and getting into position on this bad player was a good exploit. I would have taken any other seat on the table but mine. In my seat I had no way to get into position on him both pre and post-flop. The seat next him opened up, and I took it. Three hands later, I got A5s and three-bet. I'm here to have fun too. So here we are.

Why do you think "C"? Getting x-raised by a better, OOP player who knows a tight, nitty H reps little beyond an OP on this flop, is exactly why I'm loath to bet here.

Edit, and reading OP's latest makes me even less willing to bet, knowing V's sticky, with aggro tendencies. Not regretting the 3! tho: this type of V (IME) loves them some SC/S1Cs where they can "outplay" people as they hemorrhage money. And A5s beats a lot of those pf.

1. It's a basic show of respect towards a solid reg. We wouldn't appreciate it if he changed seats to our direct left, so we don't change seats to his direct left.

2. If we're playing our entire range as raise or fold from every position other than the BTN or BB, it's going to be harder to do that with a guy basically doing the same thing sitting to our direct right.

3. We have mixed incentives when he raises to our right and there are fish on our left. We'd like to get it HU, but we'd rather be HU with them, not him, and don't always want them to fold pre, so we end up calling a lot, capping our range when we're sandwiched in between, giving us the worst relative position post flop.

4. Siting opposite each other, we'll be in LP when he's in EP, and we'll be EP when he's in LP, making it less likely we'll be involved in as many pots with him, and making it harder for him to easily adjust to us.

5. We'd like to have some fish between us, so when he opens for a raise, and they call, we can squeeze, or we can over-call and play multi-way IP.

V is supposed to be x/r about 15% of the time. That requires x/r with hands like T9, 66, 86, 65 etc. at a reasonable frequency. Is V ever doing that? Probably not. If we get x/r it's with better, and almost certainly a lot better. On this board, if we're x/r at a $1/$2 it's almost always a set. We can just fold.

He's probably just flatting his pairs and straight draws. I feel really good about getting those to fold later as we know V has a fold button. So we can bet and continue bluffing a ton of turns knowing that when we are x/r we are probably drawing near dead and can just fold.