AMOC - (Atlantic Meridoneal Overturning Circulation)
One of the things that some of us struggle with is abstract ideas. We tend to embrace the range of our personal observation as being indicative of the world we live in. Events on geologically historical time scales remain abstract to us.
We live on a planet which is in a warm phase, but that recent experience of warmth is just a temporary phase in Earth's recent destiny. The planet has routinely oscillated between ice ages and warm periods for millions of years and would be heading for another ice age were it not for human industrial output.
One feature of this recent warm period is that human civilization emerged in a very stable climate system. During the last 13,000 years, ocean circulation has been very consistent. But during the transition from the ice age to the warm period, ocean circulation stopped in some important places. This was caused by rapid ice melt which reduced the salinity of the water so it stopped sinked and basically formed a clot in the circulatory framework.
That circulation has been slowing down in the last century and could halt in the next 50-100 years.
The consequences are probably a significant reduction in global carrying capacity for humans. Temperatures in Scandinavia could decline in winter by up to 20C if the circulation that transports heat north shuts down. Sea levels on the US East and Gulf coast could rise an additional 1-2 feet as the vacuum cleaner that sucks water off the coast is turned off. The heat which lingers further south will make an even more powerful source of energy for destructive storms like hurricanes. Rainfall events and drought will both further intensify and move rain will fall in different latitudes than the climate we emerged in. Agricultural failures will be rampant.
How should human societies adapt in light of our ability to trigger change on a geologic scale within human timeframes. People born today might be living through it.
Imagine that you were speaking to a child and explaining to them the evidence that you cared about their future. How would you explain the appropriate societal approach to this risk ????
14 Replies
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
I'm attaching a recent blog post from Dr. Stephan Rahmstorf .... one of the world's foremost experts on the topic.
I would just tell the kids that if they don't like the weather to get on a plane and go somewhere else
How's that working for Central American refugees who want to get into the US today ?
How would you tell your kids to deal with the fact that other countries won't want them ?
If you're not able to fly then what I do when I want some different weather is change elevations. That was one of the nicest things about being where I was in California but it's definitely at play now that I'm in a Colorado as well.
But nobody who is wanting to come to the US from central America is doing so because of climate.
If you're not able to fly then what I do when I want some different weather is change elevations. That was one of the nicest things about being where I was in California but it's definitely at play now that I'm in a Colorado as well.
But nobody who is wanting to come to the US from central America is doing so because of climate.
We are going to have food and water shortages.
Any particular region which is fortunate enough to have enough of those resources isn't going to have great enough surplus to feed everyone else. There is going to be serious resource conflict and some of that may be fatal.
So what you can tell those kids is that may be one of the consequences of our having everything we want today might mean her dying early than necessary in the future as a starving refugee.
That's what we would tell kids if we were honest about what we are bequeathing them.
Nut nut, you can’t just keep making new threads about the same thing.
Everyone who wants to engage with you on this stuff is already doing so.
Nut nut, you can’t just keep making new threads about the same thing.
Everyone who wants to engage with you on this stuff is already doing so.
This is a thread about a specific society shaping consequence which scientists are warning the public about and an opportunity for people to reflect on how society might adapt to this specific consequence.
I think this thread will quickly make its way to the bottom of the queue. It's meant to be educational and provide context.
The govt of Iceland identified the risk of AMOC stoppage as a threat to national survival
Does anybody here know why there's a large island in the North Atlantic called Greenland?
I suspect it may have named before the advent of Global Cooling (TM Pending).
I believe it was in 1979 that Time Magazine featured an article discussing climate scientists predicting an impending Ice Age.
Does anybody here know why there's a large island in the North Atlantic called Greenland?
I suspect it may have named before the advent of Global Cooling (TM Pending).
I believe it was in 1979 that Time Magazine featured an article discussing climate scientists predicting an impending Ice Age.
Is there a point in there somewhere ?
Global cooling, global warming, etc. are natural cycles that people probably can't do a lot about either way.
That said, we ought to be good stewards of our planet and not turn it into one big garbage can.
as someone who did a mega deep down surface level of hadean, protozoic, mesozoic etc etc
if true its crazy how much the planet really heated up and cooled multiple times and the crazy weather shifts it went through for years and years. it is natural
that being said, there is no way that how we live today, no way that the **** we are sprouting out into the air is just making it all ****ed up for potential years in the future. the way I see it is that the earth naturally healed and evolved since these periods took MILLIONS of years to actually change, but if that were to say take only thousands then being able to adapt and evolve naturally just seems so much harder and ****ed.
I hope the **** we are sprouting up into the air and doing to earth isn't catastrophic and whatnot I really do. but i cant help but to think its tough for the planet to adapt to outside uncontrollable elements
as someone who did a mega deep down surface level of hadean, protozoic, mesozoic etc etc if true its crazy how much the planet really heated up and cooled multiple times and the crazy weather shifts it went through for years and years. it is naturalthat being said, there is no way that how we live today, no way that the **** we are sprouting out into the air is just making it a
That humanity is politically hamstrung and impotent in the face of a what is at its core a very simple crisis of our own making bodes poorly for our ability to tackle the large global natural disasters, outside events and climate phenomena that will eventually come our way.
A lot of the skeptics have changed their tune from "this is not true" to "we can't do anything", because they mistakenly think it makes them look less idiotic. As if driving off a cliff you know is there is somehow less stupid than driving off a cliff by mistake.
