“The Mushroom Game”

hand 2
using your numbers the mushroom adds a neglible amount of ev here and has little - no impact on the decision (.15 * 1200 is 180 added to ~5200$ pot). in a hypothetical world where your assumptions and my math are correct (very iffy), it increases our ev of gii here by ~55$ (.3 -- our equity * 180 - the value of the chance button)
513 seems a bit big to open to
again really centers around how to quantify the ev of the chance button

i would not fold your hand fwiw

again think u r going to get basically no help here. RNC pre sims are a good start because u can at least see how ip is supposed to play when unopened and vs limps with 10 and 20bb dead. in practice its going to be weird sim because the other players are not incentivized to alter their strategy except they have effective giga whale behind - it wouldn't shock me if they aren't supposed to be limping but i have no real idea of how to even model the situation. people who actually know the answers to this are never going to help you unless you pay them

I think this thread has already been somewhat helpful in just brainstorming how to approach studying this game type. I’m only out here for a short time then it’s back to vanilla poker in the states so investing in a coach for mushroom format is probably not in my best interest right now. Possibly in the future once I decide when I’m coming back.

In your Hand 2, if there are 4 limpers, you have to calculate the chances that they are trapping you. And then also consider the chance that BB wakes up with a big hand.

If the 4 limpers do a lot of trapping, it seems like your preflop sizing to $500+ was bad in terms of risk versus reward.

AKo just plays so badly multiway oop I was going the biggest size that I thought it would isolate and likely get it HU… maybe 500 too large though. I do think AKo still does quite well against the LRR range from the limpers. Most of them are under 1k eff so im pretty fine with gii vs mid PP and sometimes dominated hands like AQ KQ etc. And maybe they fold some PP vs this size and we get the big chance which seems like a great outcome.

Aren't you raising so large that people with AJ/KQ/KJs/ATs might just fold pre to you because they are so scared of being domination from such a humongous raise?

If you take your logic to it's ultimate conclusion, why don't you just jam pre over the 4 limpers?

I think the obvious reasoning is that it's bad risk versus reward to jam pre over 4 limps. It's also bad risk versus reward to raise to $500+ pre over 4 limps but the degree of badness is less than if you jammed.

i mean his size is directly dependent on how much dead money there is. legitimately the only thing that matters in this game is quantifying what the chance button is worth and yet no one wants to try and do that

saying lol its bad to make it 500 over 4 limps while ignoring he has 150-250$ of dead money available to him is disingenuos. he doesnt want to jam over the 4 limpers because he wants to have raise folds lol

Yeh, mostly drunk and/or not paying much attention over turkey week ... but while I agree there's 20x+ dead money for the chance button I _really_ don't think that means you are playing 20x+ stakes. Like if it somehow folds to you on the BTN then defending ranges for a "normal" sized raise for the dead money are probably close to defending ranges for open shoves at 1k effective (no I didn't do the math, or check in any sane way).

Can maybe get some hints from those online ante only tournaments (blinds stay constant, but ante goes up), but even then it's very different because the other players (esp. BB) can't win the "ante".

Drunk me thinks BTN with a chance should be shoving preflop _a lot_ in the mushroom game live, and I'm not sure that maps to theory and/or math well.

It's just a question of whether Hero needs to go 2.4x to 2.9x pot preflop into potential traps.

Hero could probably just go 1.75x pot up to maybe 2x pot here with AK offsuit.

Assuming you are as described in Hand 2 "slightly covered" you call no matter what as even AK vs AA offers correct odds if you only need to put in another 5%. Since going all in is not going to effect the actions of any thinking player vs calling why do you think KK very likely but AA is unlikely?

I rule out AA because of reads on this player. He would raise a different size or just trap with AA. I’m making this assumption because I’ve seen him wake up in a similar scenario with AA and just call. Also seen him minclick 3b AA oop vs an open and 2 callers. Hes super loose but ultra ultra passive preflop.

k but what is the pot

I think you did a decent calculation of the pot already (aside from the blinds/limps/rake) by doing a guesstimate of the value of the mushroom chance button opportunity.

I might agree if V had say $800 when you bet but given just a bit more so anyone who would call you and him at your bet will call him at say 10% more all in think you dismissing AA as a possible hand is wrong. Remember he had no chance to raise smaller or trap in your scenario.