1-2 red 99 on J♥️7♥️3♥️ 2♠️ 7🔷 with mixed/low SPR
Pretty sure I played this bad, but it's been a bad few weeks+ and I was recovering from no poker but lots of turkey week...
Sunday evening, foxwoods 1-2. All the promos were on wed/fri/sat but the bad beat is now ~288k and I think people are turning up for that.
I've been at the table a few hours but I left to get a DD hot chocolate, which is now 2 miles away, and most of the table has changed. I've only been back for less than an orbit .... I'm thinking about leaving and folded every hand from BB to MPish (maybe limped in SB).
I think I cover everyone with 350-400, as most of the new players bought in for 100 or 200 but I think the BB has 300 and might have been here before I left.
OTTH:
I’m MPish* and the guy on my left sits down after being away and posts, two EP limpers to me and I have red 99 … Without the guy behind me I'd probably just auto raise to 12 but I doubt I'm getting many folds for that with $9 out there, so I decide on a raise to $15 and pick up three chips but accidentally catch another and raise to $20. Guy on my left folds, but both blinds and both limpers just throw $20 out without thinking much (I don't say anything) ... so plan A worked great.
* Some chance I'm UTG+2 with no folds before me, and LJ posted ... but by the flop I'm virtual BTN and it's 5 ways.
So roughly:
HI 2 + 1
SB 1
BB 2
UTG call
UTG+1 call
UTG+2 fold
H in LJ sees 99 and raises 20
HI fold
CO fold
BTN fold
SB call
BB call
UTG call
UTG+1 call
Pot: ~$103 - rake
Flop: J♥️7♥️3♥️, x, x, x, x, I think about it and check.
Spoiler
With the weird SPR I don't want to be folding, but not sure if I should bet small/call, bet big and maybe fold to 300 guy, or check. Figure it's probably a mix and decided on not putting it all in (maybe bad mental game)
Pot: ~$103 - rake
Flop: J♥️7♥️3♥️ 2♠️ , x, x, UTG b $35, f, I think about it and call, f, f
Spoiler
Can't see UTG's stack very well, I should have asked but my guess is he started with 200. Thought about shoving, mostly for value, but seems like a weird spot to do it with this hand.
River: ~$173 - rake
Flop: J♥️7♥️3♥️ 2♠️ 7♦, x, I check
Spoiler
This one I'm the least worried about, as I figure he mostly plays perfectly against a shove. Maybe bet $35 does something, but it's not like I know what to do if he raises.
9 Replies
Bro they don't have hot chocolate at the casino? You gotta go to Dunkin? The OMC's must be fit to riot.*
Grunch:
PRE - I do love attacking the dead money. Funny that you mis-clicked and still got four calls. And they say live poker is dead or dying...(I think I've heard that said).
FLOP - I think in theory we can bet really small when it's super-multi-way and the board is monotone. We don't want to be pure bluffing here, but we have a decent PP that benefits from some equity denial, and we do have that re-draw, so I could see betting $20 again. Probably folding to any raise that isn't a min-click or from a known nit.
TURN - Calling seems reasonable to me, mostly by process of elimination (too good to fold, too weak to raise).
RIVER - Actually the most interesting decision point in the hand. I don't think there's any worse hand we can get value from, but my gut says there are some better hands we can make fold - hands that were meh when he stabbed, and now either regret it, or managed to improve and don't mind getting to a cheap showdown.
So, yeah, I kinda want to turn our hand into a bluff. I'm not sure what size is best, but I think a small over-bet, like $200, probably folds all his JX, some of his 7x, and maybe some low flushes.
I don't think I'd try it if the board didn't pair on the river. But the run-out and his check-bet small-check line makes it hard for him to have a really strong hand here. Good for him if he has J7, but otherwise, I think we can make a lot of his meh hands fold if we bomb it.
*Yes I know the OMC's mostly drink coffee, but I've seen some ordering hot chocolate.
I've been at the table a few hours but I left to get a DD hot chocolate, which is now 2 miles away
People who have never been to Foxwoods are going to think this is a joke, haha. You legitimately need to walk 2 miles (or more) to get to and from the casino Dunkin Donuts from the new FW poker room. Mohegan actually closed their poker room-adjacent Dunkin... what is New England poker coming to?
In terms of the hand, this is exactly how I would play it, I think, though I prob go $15 pre. Guessing he showed some trashy Ax of hearts hand that should have bluffed river?
Looks well played to me.
I'd actually raise even bigger pre. Even $22 is nice, because they have to put in a full $20 more. In these obvious steal spots I want to go big with everything. Your actual steals want to get through. Your mid hands like 99 are fine to take it down with no rake. Your premiums will look like steals so you might get a little extra action and even stuff like AK doesn't mind scooping up all this money with no rake and finishing the hand promptly.
I agree with doc that we can stab the flop pretty small. There are a number of hands that have decent equity against us that will fold. We get some value from hands like higher hearts. We maintain control of the hand.
Turn, we could bluff in this spot as this hand has played out if we had worse cards, but I think our hand is too good to bluff with.
River, I don't think there's any reason to bet $35. I think we usually lose here, but there will be times he just stabbed with some random stuff because nobody seemed to want the pot and then gave up. There will be scenarios where we want to turn 9x9h into a bluff on this board. But I don't think we have a convincing story at all and we seem to have about 1 psb. So check is good.
People who have never been to Foxwoods are going to think this is a joke, haha. You legitimately need to walk 2 miles (or more) to get to and from the casino Dunkin Donuts from the new FW poker room. Mohegan actually closed their poker room-adjacent Dunkin... what is New England poker coming to?In terms of the hand, this is exactly how I would play it, I think, though I prob go
I've never been to Foxwoods. I assumed OP meant he left the casino and drove there. Now I'm assuming the "2 miles" is an exaggeration, and it's just a stupid-long walk. I mean, who the hell walks 2 miles for hot chocolate?
As for the hand - checking back the river is the conservative play, and I'm not hating on it. But often enough we're going to lose to a hand we could make fold, such that I think turning our hand into a bluff merits consideration.
There are of course exceptions within the player pool, but when someone stabs 1/3 pot on the turn, on this board, gets called, and then checks river, he's almost never going to have a nutted hand that wants to call a big bet. A lot of the hands that are strong enough to check-call would probably just bet again, for a small size.
It would suck to check this back and lose to something stupid that would have snap folded, like J4o.
Reveal:
Spoiler
Never considered bluffing the river ... I did think a lot about if I should shove turn. We have some fold equity vs. some random Jx hands, or maybe even TT ... plus I thought, like elmcityboy, that a lot of his range was A♥x or K♥x that wanted folds ... maybe even some random QT with no heart that was just randomly stabbing.
Anyway ... I check back river and V shows A♥Kx.
I'll see myself out.
I regret nothing.
In all seriousness - it's low stakes. Random $hlt occurs. They might fold Jx or hero-call with TT and we spend the rest of the night wondering how he has TT from UTG in an SRP where he's not the PFR.
I think it was your "2 miles to DD" read that threw me off. It ranks right up there with Banana's "guy is a high stakes crusher sitting at 1/3" reads.
