AK and 45 BBs
Mid stage $250 buyin. About 40 of 80ish left pays 9. Avg stack about 60bbs. 600/1200 bba. UTG2 opens 3k standard size off 50bb stack. Chip leader next calls. I 3bet to 11k with AKo. Opener thinks makes it 26k. CL folds.
We shoving 45bbs here? Doubt he has AQ.
10 Replies
Yes jam. There's really no other way to play AK here. Your hand is too strong to fold and you want to ensure you see all five cards.
Fold.
As you say, he doesn’t have AQ and in reality he has only one or maybe two hands we’re flipping against.
Admittedly it's not a fist pump spot but you're basically priced in against any reasonable range with all the dead money in the pot.
You start the hand with approximately 54,000 (45 BBs).
3,000 blinds +3,000 from the caller +11,000 you already put in the pot +11,000 from initial raiser matching your raise= 28,000.
You have an additional 43,000 remaining so assuming 0 fold equity you need to put in 43,000 to win 43,000+ 43,000 +28,000= 114,000.
43,000/114,000= Just considering pot odds, you need 37.7%.
Against QQ+, AK you have 38.8%.
So in a reasonable worst case scenario with 0 fold equity you have a basically break even call. With a minor ICM adjustment (it's not a major factor at this point in the tournament) it could be a close fold.
However that's assuming he never shows up with JJ, AQ or maybe even raise/folds A5s? With any reasonable allowance for uncertainty it becomes a clear call, IMO. If you were deeper with like 60 bb + then I would be more on board for considering a fold.
+1 GWF and yes there is a small icm adjustment, but there’s also a non zero % of folds from live opponents holding AKo and QQ
yeah imo jam, you are miles away from cashing
What we forget to ask is. What player type is UTG? What is the 4bet range for UTG here, do you have VPIP PFR on the guy?
What was your position on the table? If you were in the blinds I wouldn't be surprised to see a solver shove here instead instead of 3-bet to 11bb In fact I see it does just that often when I practice, even on effective stack depths like 50-60 BB. As others wrote normally you just can't fold here anyway, barring an unexpected scenario where both players re-raise your 3-bet.
The disadvantage of just 3-betting here should be obvious: OOP and with a hand that misses the flop 2 times out of 3 you will be in a spot where your equity realization will be lowered. Whereas shoving will maximize it. You put maximum pressure on your opponents, often resulting in both om them folding. And with this stack depths we'd prefer to have folds. Winning 8,5 bb, thereby increasing your stack with almost 20% is a great result here!
If you had position on your opponents it's a bit trickier. If heads-up AK sometimes just call. But with two players in the pot a 3-bet might be better than a shove.
Too deep to shove. Fold and find a better spot.
GWF and oldsilver showed the math on why we can't really fold here barring an insane read.
Obviously if we could take the 11k back, that would be different, but the pot odds are such that we just have to hold our nose and rip it.
I don't have a problem with folding here. I think UTG2 has AA most of the time and KK the rest of the time. It is possible that he is messing with you with QQ and if he is OOP wants to be able to let go if the flop has an A or K. I have seen that happen once. And maybe if it is a GTO solver guy, it would be worth jamming.
Raising from 11k to 26k is a little over a third of your remaining effective stack (basically you will be pot committed). So it is a situation where he is always going to be all in but wants a call.
Sometimes I will call with AK against UTG or UTG2 instead of 3-betting, especially if I am OOP (like in the BB). I think our stack size is a little too big to jam preflop when OOP but it is close and if we know UTG2 opens wide I don't mind jamming.