NL25 KQs - stab in 4b pot?
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($40.38) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 10]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
BB ($45.74) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 18]
UTG ($27.60) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 100% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 12]
HJ ($52.99) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 75% | Hands: 10]
HERO ($25.62)
Dealt to Hero: Q♦ K♦
UTG Raises To $0.63, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $1.90, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Raises To $3.98, HERO Calls $2.08
Hero SPR on Flop: [2.6 effective]
Flop ($8.31): J♠ 4♠ J♦
UTG Checks, HERO ? ? ?
No info on Villain, other than he looks like a standard reg.
Flop: here I am confused. I can certainly have AJs/KJs/QJs here and some slowplayed AA + FDs. On the other hand, people often x/c here with pairs and AK, even AQ. I do have KQ-J in diamonds, so every T will give me an OESD and every diamond a FD, which I could use to jam and win the pot.
But if I get x/r, I need to let it go and fold a hand with some potential, I could also catch a K or Q, though would need to be careful then.
So, do we:
- take a stab 1/4
- or check back and fold turn unimproved?
5 Replies
With no info on villain I would consider folding preflop, they are supposed to 4bet bluff KJ, KT, 99, TT, etc with some frequency but I don't know how many players actually do that.
If you stab you will need to barrel further street maybe to make them fold AK, AQ. If you stab and get raised yes you have to fold but you do not surrender a lot of equity, it's not a big problem in my opinion.
With no info on villain I would consider folding preflop, they are supposed to 4bet bluff KJ, KT, 99, TT, etc with some frequency but I don't know how many players actually do that.
Hmm, but then how does our 3-betting strategy CO against EP look like? Cause if it ~~8% (as it should be), then we need to defend at least 35% of that, so 3.2-3.5% or so, which is mostly { JJ+, AK } and the best suited broadways, like AQs/KQs/AJs, might consider KJs and TT too.
If you stab you will need to barrel further street maybe to make them fold AK, AQ. If you stab and get raised yes you have to fold but you do not surrender a lot of equity, it's not a big problem in my opinion.
Best would be to spike at least some additional equity on the turn and then jam. Any additional piece of equity increases the overall EV of the play. But if he has plenty of AK here, then maybe with so much dead money it is going to be enough.
UTG's OOP 4bet preflop sizing, which is 16 bb against 7.5 bb 3bet, in my opinion makes KQs unfoldable preflop. The missed cbet looks a little bit unreggish too, since so many regs just simplify broadway high 4bp flops as range B25 or whatever smallish. Not-regs rarely find 4bet bluffs with solver combos or any combos tbh, so I would probably tank check the flop, and see what the turn and their turn action/timing/sizings look like. Any weakness by them on the turn, especially with quick timings, then we are def going to start betting on the turn and sending it in on the river.
Very dry board but your outs aren’t clear to be clean and you could be near dead already. The bet is likely profitable but not sure this is the spot for it
UTG's OOP 4bet preflop sizing, which is 16 bb against 7.5 bb 3bet, in my opinion makes KQs unfoldable preflop. The missed cbet looks a little bit unreggish too, since so many regs just simplify broadway high 4bp flops as range B25 or whatever smallish. Not-regs rarely find 4bet bluffs with solver combos or any combos tbh, so I would probably tank check the flop, and see what th
Yeah, especially if we would hit the golden T♦ for a straight flush draw 😀 Plus then even if Villain bets the turn+river, we can ensure we will see all 5 cards.
