Facing river re-raise with straight
Hero on the button opens Jd9h to 2.5bb, unknown calls from the big blind.
Flop 10h 7c 3h - check, hero bets 4.5bb, call
Turn 6c - check, check
Rvier 8c - villain bets 12bb hero raises to 43bb, villain raises to 93bb and is all-in.
My analysis: I have to call 50 to get 186, so I need to be good slightly more than a 1/5 of the time. I am beating some worse straights (A9s-69s,A9o-K9o,99), and chopping with J9 (bonus: how to count such a combo, ignore?), maybe some sets that overplay. There could be some Ax bluffs but I don't think my pool finds them? As for flushes, I would expect backdoor flushes to have something else going for them to call the large flop bet (?): 10x (KT-6Ts), 3x (34,35,32,36), guthots like J9, QJ. Without counting exactly all the combos, it seems there is are more combos that I beat than I loose to, should have way more than 20% equity. Easy call?
3 Replies
If villain has any non-J9 straights (or bluffs, or worse value etc) here you have more than enough to call if my calculations are correct. I think its a call against an unknown.
I would have raised smaller, like 30-32 bb, to get a call from two pair/sets/9x. I am not sure a 9x straight will come on top of such raise, cause it might be afraid of a flush or J9. Which leaves only flushes that will do that. I absolutely hate spots like that, but it might be one of those spots, where raise / fold is actually the best play, provided that the amount of combos that can call us (9x, sets, two pair) is larger than flush combos, which I think is easily true.
They say they have a flush. Do they bluff enough vs your line? I don't think so. Raising their initial bet on the river is debtable, yes you beat all their 9's but you also need to get called by those hands...
