nuts on the turn, shove or call ?
This guy seems to really like his hand, but I have the nuts. I *believe* we are supposed to slowplay pretty often in theory and I also *believe* we slowplay more when we also have the flush draw. But I might be completely wrong and anyway the "theory" doesn't matter at NL10.
Anyway what would you do?
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 183.7 BB
SB: 121.4 BB (VPIP: 21.75, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.07, Hands: 828)
Hero (BB): 102.2 BB
UTG: 95.7 BB
MP: 138.8 BB
CO: 188.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♣ 6♣
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3.9 BB, Hero calls 2.9 BB
Flop: (7.8 BB, 2 players) 2♥ 3♣ 8♣
SB checks, Hero bets 3.7 BB, SB raises to 15.5 BB, Hero calls 11.8 BB
Turn: (38.8 BB, 2 players) 4♦
SB bets 29.5 BB, Hero ?
5 Replies
Jam. You don't want some river that might scare him, guy seems very nitty so no need to slowplay anyway.
As played, definitely jam, if he has a set or some combo draw, he will call. Else you collect tons of dead money. You may also consider 3-bet/calling this flop, cause you have 6-high and you're not gonna win this pot unimproved.
This is your equity if you 3b/c this, this is just an estimated range.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.44% 41.20% 0.24% 6c5c
MP3 58.56% 58.33% 0.24% 33-22, 54s, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Qc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c
With 42% equity, you would need to generate 55% fold equity, quite a lot.
If you do the same on the blank turn, sa Q♦, you have 34.58% equity and would need only 38.1% fold equity. There are also plenty of turn cards that improve you: pairs or a 9/7, giving you OESD / double gutter.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 34.58% 34.58% 0.00% 6c5c
MP3 65.42% 65.42% 0.00% 33-22, 54s, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Qc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c
Final answer: call flop, jam turn seems to be the most profitable play.
Thanks. Results : I shoved and they folded.
Could you guys explain the shove? Im trying to build heuristics for myself, and i've thought that we want to slowplay our nuts vs a polar line (xr, big barrel) to get value from the bluff part of the range that we fold out. Is it because villain doesnt really have any low equity bluffs that dont call our shove (bluff range is fds) or because we dont mind being called by the value part since we have the nuts? Is the flush draw a major factor, since we could both lose the nuts and lose calls from stuff like overpair? Would it be different if villain wasnt a nit?
Could you guys explain the shove? Im trying to build heuristics for myself, and i've thought that we want to slowplay our nuts vs a polar line (xr, big barrel) to get value from the bluff part of the range that we fold out. Is it because villain doesnt really have any low equity bluffs that dont call our shove (bluff range is fds) or because we dont mind being called by the val
I checked in solver, if I remember correctly the hand is a pure call. That's what I was thinking in game, but could not give credit to my opponent for bluffing and decided he had value almost always (which is not the case in solverland of course).
