NL25 A9s - top two pair in tough spot
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30.66) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 30.8% | AGG: 10% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 28.6% | Hands: 13]
HERO ($42.74)
BB ($29.74) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 20% | Hands: 8]
UTG ($51.43) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
HJ ($29.47) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 8]
CO ($42.76) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]
Dealt to Hero: A♣ 9♣
UTG Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.50, HERO Calls $0.40, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [14.62 effective]
Flop ($2): 2♥ A♦ 9♥
HERO Checks, BB Checks, UTG Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: $49.93), BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $4 (Rem. Stack: $38.24), BB Folds, UTG Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: $46.93)
Turn ($10): 2♥ A♦ 9♥ 3♦
HERO Bets $7.50 (Rem. Stack: $30.74), UTG Calls $7.50 (Rem. Stack: $39.43)
River ($25): 2♥ A♦ 9♥ 3♦ 4♦
HERO ? ? ?
Preflop: BTN seemed a bit fishy, A9s should have some potential postflop, so I completed.
Flop: got top two pair, decided to x/r in order to charge Ax and not give the draws free cards.
Turn: only 54s got there, other than that I should be good. I think if he has a set, he should most likely raise it somewhere here, though 22 might be afraid of 99, and AA/99 are just one combo each.
River: That's a pretty bad card for me. Not only 54s has a str8 now, but Ah5h and 6h5h as well. Backdoor flush also got there (Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, maybe 8d7d or JdTd that had backdoor FD+backdoor str8).
On the other hand, I beat all AJ+, A2s, Ah3h and Ah4h.
What is my best move here with 123 bb lef into a 100 bb pot?
1. Jam - I think this one doesn't make sense at all, as not enough worse hands can call me here
2. Bet/fold for 1/3 - only if we think he will call with AK and at least some AQ
Equity Win Tie
MP2 51.92% 50.00% 1.92% Ac9c
MP3 48.08% 46.15% 1.92% 22, AQs+, A9s, A2s, JdTd, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 5d4d, 5h4h, Ah3h, AKo
3. Check/call - I am not sure we have that ~~ 39% equity here. Most of his missed FDs are Ax that have SD value. Only ones that could potentially be turned into a bluff that I see are:
- JhTh, 8h7h with BD str8 draw
- I did assume 22 in his range, but no other sets
Equity Win Tie
MP2 28.95% 26.32% 2.63% Ac9c
MP3 71.05% 68.42% 2.63% 22, A9s, A2s, JdTd, JhTh, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8h7h, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 5d4d, 5h4h, Ah3h
Without 22 it's still 34.38%, not enough.
4. Check/fold - seems quite nitty
1 Reply
I think i like check the most, dont think we can value bet here. We probably go to sd and win quite often, not sure what to do if villain bets though. My guess is that in theory vs a properly balanced villain its a check call - where i play its probably a fold, but maybe on 25nl people find more bluffs, idk.
Can we bet bigger ott?
Quality hand post mate.