NL25 JJ - thin v-bet on the river in 3-bet pot?

NL25 JJ - thin v-bet on the river in 3-bet pot?

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($37.19) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 8]
SB ($27.51) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 3]
HERO ($83.99)
UTG ($79.05) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 18]
HJ ($63.87) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 37.5% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 8]
CO ($27.16) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 12]

Dealt to Hero: J J

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.75, HERO Raises To $2.25, SB Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.61 effective]
Flop ($4.50): T 8 2
SB Checks, HERO Bets $3 (Rem. Stack: $78.74), SB Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: $22.26)

Turn ($10.50): 2
SB Checks, HERO Bets $5.25 (Rem. Stack: $73.49), SB Calls $5.25 (Rem. Stack: $17.01)

River ($21): K
SB Checks, HERO ? ? ?

No info on Villain. Since it is BvB, the plan until turn was to bet, bet/call or jam river. The K on the river kind of stopped me, but he may have some worse hands that could call me. Not having J unfortunately makes him more likely to have busted draws (so I would have certainly called the river donk), but can we find enough of value here?

I assume 2 combos of AK, 2 combos of TT, plenty of Tx. If we can find at least some 8x or 99, especially that all of the draws have busted and K is perceived as a scare card - then we are good to go. What do you think?

Board
[T 8 2 2 K]

Equity Win Tie
MP2 51.61% 51.61% 0.00% JdJc
MP3 48.39% 48.39% 0.00% 99, 22, ThTc, TsTc, ATs, A2s, KTs, K8s, QTs, JTs, T9s, KsQs, KsJs, Ks9s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, Ks7s, 8s7s, Ks6s, AdKh, AdKs

04 December 2025 at 09:12 AM
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5 Replies


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I think unless you want to reopen small you dont have enough here to value bet, and x back wins almost all the time. We could probably bet larger on the turn though.


Could maybe bet more on the turn but your sizing is fine imo. When we check the river here i feel our hand will obviously win a fair amount of showdowns, but i also like to bet a small amount vs some villains like 25-33% to get calls from any pair+draw combo / middle PP's etc. It's obviously also a line that can be taken when we have no SD value and can get away with turning our hand into a bluff for a discounted price vs the same villain/villains that are super ABC.


I suspect theory jams with a spade always and mixes without but in practise I quite like exploit checking as people won't be very sticky on the king. It might not even be crazy to go 1/2 pot/call if you want to try to be very sick


I like checking back if we used a larger turn size. Why did you bomb flop then size down turn? Duece is more or less a brick imo


by swerbs22

I like checking back if we used a larger turn size. Why did you bomb flop then size down turn? Duece is more or less a brick imo

I think overpairs like JJ/TT like higher sizing, cause here protection of our equity goes up in value.
But true, turn could have been higher.

Anyways, he had 33 and I won.

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