NL25 KQs - double barrel OESD in 3-bet pot?
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($29.37)
SB ($40.71) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 11]
BB ($51.68) [VPIP: 8.3% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 36]
UTG ($27.39) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 13]
HJ ($49.78) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 27.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 11]
CO ($44.74) [VPIP: 6.7% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 16]
Dealt to Hero: Q♥ K♥
UTG Raises To $0.55, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.80, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.48 effective]
Flop ($3.95): 5♠ 3♣ J♥
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.31 (Rem. Stack: $26.26), UTG Calls $1.31 (Rem. Stack: $24.28)
Turn ($6.57): 5♠ 3♣ J♥ T♣
UTG Checks, HERO ? ? ?
Yet another tricky spot.
On the one hand, it's good to have some barreling range here, on the other KQ has some outs, potentially aganst AJ/KJ as well. Villain may also jam FDs here.
Is it a check behind? With OESD+FD+2 OC I believe it's a bet/call.
10 Replies
Wouldn’t think too much about it. You probably don’t want to SD your hand. You have nice draw and potential nut outs, bet.
I think there is an argument for x back - if villain has enough raises here, im not sure we have enough for bet call, but we definitely have too much for bet fold. We have relatively good pair outs that would like opponent's range not being strengthened by calling an additional bet, and if we miss we can bluff river as we are IP.
Wouldn’t think too much about it. You probably don’t want to SD your hand. You have nice draw and potential nut outs, bet.
Hmm, this might be the valid argument. All PPs and Ax-high beat us. Things like KJ/AT/T9s as well. We only beat 98s and 76s that may plan to pull some crazy x/r here. But let's see what is our equity against such range:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.46% 27.38% 4.08% KhQh
MP3 68.54% 64.46% 4.08% JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, JTs, AcQc, KsQs, KcQc, QcJc, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, 7c6c
And the result is hmm...We do have quite significant amount of equity, though hard to say if we can realize it on K and Q when facing a push. So if we remove 98s/76s and just leave the best combo draws:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 21.59% 19.25% 2.34% KhQh
MP3 78.41% 76.07% 2.34% JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, JTs, AcQc, KcQc, QcJc
Then it's noticably worse.
However, it seems that betting AQ might be a better idea, cause it has even less equity and blocks some of the combos and if we have to fold it, then it doesn't really hurt:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 28.67% 26.86% 1.81% AhQh
MP3 71.33% 69.52% 1.81% JJ-TT, AJs, KJs, JTs, AcQc, KsQs, KcQc, QcJc, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, 7c6c
With KQ though...I am really not convinced. Or maybe, let's ask a different question:
- what would be our range that bets flop, but wants to xb turn?
I would say it's decent SDV that doesn't want to go stacks, so anything less than AJ -> KJs/QJs/ATs/KTs/QTs/99/88 + good draws like KQ. 98s is noticably worse and should fall under b/f category.
Well, some Villains may show up with QQ here as well.
Even the solver isn't really sure what to do with KQs here. KQo that blocks ♣ want to bet, other combos want to check. But KQs, apart from obvious ♣ FD, is kind of 50/50. ♦ version is more likely to barrel, since there can be ♥ and ♠ floats here. Suggested sizing on the flop was 2/3 instead of 1/3 and turn 1/2 instead of 2/3.
Surprisingly, b/c range against x/jam is wider when we bet 1/2 than when we bet 2/3 (like I did), which doesn't make sense to me, cause in the second case we're getting better odds, almost as good to justify b/c with K♣ Q♣, which wasn't suggested to do that, but A♣ 5♣ was. Maybe it had something to do with the nut FD.
I didn't check that thoroughly, it is just counterintuitive at first.
Bet and check both fine. Would lean check turn and always bluff river
Even the solver isn't really sure what to do with KQs here. KQo that blocks ♣ want to bet, other combos want to check. But KQs, apart from obvious ♣ FD, is kind of 50/50. ♦ version is more likely to barrel, since there can be ♥ and ♠ floats here. Suggested sizing on the flop was 2/3 instead of 1/3 and turn 1/2 instead of 2/3.
That's because jam size vs 1/2 is larger than vs 2/3. Large bets bluff more often than small bets.
For the most part people overfold turns/rivers in 3bp when OOP as the caller, so when you have an optional betting hand for turns/rivers as a bluff you should lean towards barreling those.
Here is x/c x/f frequencies for OOP reg in 3BP for various turn sizings:
Compared to ~equilibrium frequencies:
Taken from Snapmda.com
Yeah I even did my own small analysis based on my sample vs some MDA stuff from DriveHUD2. I found out sizings 33% and 75% to have the biggest "bonus" compared to how often they should work. 50% and 67% also come with a bonus, but it's a small one. So if you want to bluff, it's better to go for 3/4, since your fold equity will be much, much better.
