How to deal with river raises?
Hi guys,
Amongst leaks that I am trying to fix (redline is bad), I believe this is one of them. On the river, often times I am torn between (thin) value betting and checking back to realize my equity. I had many situations where the action seemed passive (xx, xx, xx in multiway), I hit something, I try to bet and suddenly boom - some wakes up and does a x/r. How do you deal with that?
When do you consider such x/r as a big slowplay and when as a cheap bluff trying to punish the pot stealer? Below are some examples of what I mean.
1.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
CO ($44.83) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.8% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 119]
HERO ($36.59)
SB ($25) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 18.9% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 38]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 21% | AGG: 28.1% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 22.2% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 5.6% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 10.3% | Hands: 82]
Dealt to Hero: A♥ A♠
CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [18.77 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 4♠ 6♥ K♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $35.34), BB Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $23.75)
Turn ($2.60): 4♠ 6♥ K♦ 5♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.80 (Rem. Stack: $33.54), BB Calls $1.80 (Rem. Stack: $21.95)
River ($6.20): 4♠ 6♥ K♦ 5♠ J♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $3.10 (Rem. Stack: $30.44), BB Raises To $12.50 (Rem. Stack: $9.45), HERO Folds
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BB shows: 3♦ 5♦
BB wins: $11.55
2.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($46.55) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 24.8% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 21.4% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 83.3% | 3Bet: 15.2% | 4Bet: 12.5% | Hands: 119]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 56]
HERO ($32.37)
UTG ($18.38) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 23]
HJ ($25.99) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 21% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 82]
CO ($19.21) [VPIP: 30.2% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 41.4% | Hands: 66]
Dealt to Hero: Q♣ 9♣
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.63, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.38
Hero SPR on Flop: [23.34 effective]
Flop ($1.36): 2♥ A♦ Q♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $45.51), HERO Calls $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $31.33)
Turn ($2.18): 2♥ A♦ Q♠ Q♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.42 (Rem. Stack: $44.09), HERO Calls $1.42 (Rem. Stack: $29.91)
River ($5.02): 2♥ A♦ Q♠ Q♥ 6♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.51 (Rem. Stack: $42.58), HERO Raises To $5.53 (Rem. Stack: $24.38), BTN Raises To $44.09 (allin), HERO Folds
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BTN wins: $15.04
3.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HJ ($26.23) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 27]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 32.3% | Hands: 112]
HERO ($60.60)
SB ($28.99) [VPIP: 34.5% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 52.2% | Flop Agg: 69.2% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 60% | 3Bet: 4.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30% | Hands: 59]
BB ($48.70) [VPIP: 41.6% | PFR: 29.8% | AGG: 22.8% | Flop Agg: 17.4% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 35% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 26% | Hands: 163]
Dealt to Hero: 8♠ A♦
HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Calls $0.50, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [15.77 effective]
Flop ($1.80): Q♥ 7♣ 7♠
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($1.80): Q♥ 7♣ 7♠ 5♦
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Checks
River ($1.80): Q♥ 7♣ 7♠ 5♦ A♥
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.90 (Rem. Stack: $59.10), SB Folds, BB Raises To $4.50 (Rem. Stack: $43.60), HERO Folds
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BB wins: $3.42
4.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($33.05) [VPIP: 16.4% | PFR: 5.5% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 56]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 36.8% | Flop Agg: 55.6% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 3.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 10.3% | Hands: 69]
UTG ($7.47) [VPIP: 46.4% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 41.5% | Hands: 70]
HJ ($9.75) [VPIP: 14.8% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 61]
CO ($28.54) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 52.4% | Hands: 70]
HERO ($25.25)
Dealt to Hero: Q♠ A♣
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [18.77 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 9♣ 2♦ 5♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.98 (Rem. Stack: $23.67), BB Calls $0.98 (Rem. Stack: $23.42)
Turn ($3.26): 9♣ 2♦ 5♣ A♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.45 (Rem. Stack: $21.22), BB Calls $2.45 (Rem. Stack: $20.97)
River ($8.16): 9♣ 2♦ 5♣ A♦ Q♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $6.12 (Rem. Stack: $15.10), BB Raises To $20.97 (allin), HERO Folds
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BB wins: $19.15
5.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($26.33) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 40.7% | Flop Agg: 53.8% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 13.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 12.9% | Hands: 72]
UTG ($28.06) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 29.2% | Hands: 56]
HJ ($49.59) [VPIP: 18.1% | PFR: 2.5% | AGG: 25.4% | Hands: 160]
CO ($13.76) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 124]
HERO ($36.13)
SB ($25) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 18.2% | Hands: 34]
Dealt to Hero: 6♠ 4♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [19.79 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 9♠ A♠ 2♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $34.88), BB Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $25.08)
Turn ($2.60): 9♠ A♠ 2♦ 5♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.95 (Rem. Stack: $32.93), BB Calls $1.95 (Rem. Stack: $23.13)
River ($6.50): 9♠ A♠ 2♦ 5♠ 9♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $4.88 (Rem. Stack: $28.05), BB Raises To $23.13 (allin), HERO Folds
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BB wins: $15.21
6.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.25) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 15.4% | Hands: 44]
SB ($29.82) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 36.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 50% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($25)
UTG ($40.14) [VPIP: 41.4% | PFR: 36.2% | AGG: 41.9% | Hands: 59]
HJ ($35.97) [VPIP: 34.1% | PFR: 29.3% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 43]
CO ($27.02) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 9.2% | AGG: 32.6% | Hands: 217]
Dealt to Hero: A♥ 3♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.75, HERO Raises To $2.25, SB Calls $1.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.06 effective]
Flop ($4.50): J♦ 2♣ A♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $1.49 (Rem. Stack: $21.26), SB Calls $1.49 (Rem. Stack: $26.08)
Turn ($7.48): J♦ 2♣ A♠ 7♣
SB Checks, HERO Checks
River ($7.48): J♦ 2♣ A♠ 7♣ A♦
SB Checks, HERO Bets $2.47 (Rem. Stack: $18.79), SB Raises To $11.40 (Rem. Stack: $14.68), HERO Folds
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SB wins: $11.57
7.
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($33.37) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 25% | Hands: 20]
BB ($35.28) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 35.6% | Flop Agg: 47.6% | Turn Agg: 27.3% | River Agg: 30% | 3Bet: 7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 16.3% | Hands: 107]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 27.1% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 45.2% | Hands: 86]
HJ ($33.47) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 16.7% | Flop Agg: 20% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
CO ($3.28) [VPIP: 9.1% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 36]
HERO ($47.75)
Dealt to Hero: 7♣ 7♦
UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.55, CO Folds, HERO Calls $0.55, SB Calls $0.45, BB Calls $0.30
Hero SPR on Flop: [14.92 effective]
Flop ($2.20): T♥ 9♥ 9♣
SB Checks, BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Bets $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $45.70), SB Folds, BB Calls $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $33.23), HJ Calls $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $31.42)
Turn ($6.70): T♥ 9♥ 9♣ 8♠
BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Checks
River ($6.70): T♥ 9♥ 9♣ 8♠ 6♠
BB Checks, HJ Checks, HERO Bets $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $43.48), BB Raises To $8 (Rem. Stack: $25.23), HJ Folds, HERO Folds
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BB wins: $10.35
5 Replies
Ime river bet/fold usually not a huge influence on redline although it obv causes largish drops.
I didnÂ’t go in too much detail over the hand histories you posted, but it seems like you may be over folding to river bets. Perhaps in your game this is a good exploitive play, but at least in theory, you should be defending more OTR.
Take your hand 5 as an example. You bet, making the pot about $11 and villain jammed for $23. The key concept theoretically is minimum defense frequency. This is the minimum frequency with which you must call to avoid allowing villain to make a profit from you by over bluffing. Mathematically, this is equal to villains bet size divided by the sum of that bet and the pot size. In this particular case itÂ’s 23/34=67%. You should be calling with about 2/3 of your range that makes it to this point. Certainly your baby flush is well within that 2/3.
Like I said, this is theoretical and your game may be such that you should not defend at such a high frequency, but you donÂ’t need to win every time, or even most of the time, for calls in spots like these to be profitable. In this particular hand you are calling $19 more to win $34 ($11 in pot after your bet plus villainÂ’s $23). That means you must win 19/53=36% of the time to break even.
In this particular case itÂ’s 23/34=67%. You should be calling with about 2/3 of your range that makes it to this point. Certainly your baby flush is well within that 2/3.
He needs to win 67%+ of the time to profit, which means I need to defend at least 33% - not 67% ;]
I don't remember how many flush combos I have here, but as for FH+ combos:
- 99 (1)
- A9 (6)
- AA (3)
- 22 (3)
- 55 (3)
- if I would range bet 95s here, then 2 more
= 18 combos in total
Plus roughly 18-20 flushes.
Not sure if there is anything else worth value betting, maybe 43s. The rest will be some bluffs, maybe 15-20 combos. So just FH+ alone provides me here with 33% of required MDF.
Like I said, this is theoretical and your game may be such that you should not defend at such a high frequency, but you donÂ’t need to win every time, or even most of the time, for calls in spots like these to be profitable. In this particular hand you are calling $19 more to win $34 ($11 in pot after your bet plus villainÂ’s $23). That means you must win 19/53=36% of the time
Question is, if Villains really x/r here as a bluff often enough to justify the call.
Hi guys,Amongst leaks that I am trying to fix (redline is bad), I believe this is one of them. On the river, often times I am torn between (thin) value betting and checking back to realize my equity. I had many situations where the action seemed passive (xx, xx, xx in multiway), I hit something, I try to bet and suddenly boom - some wakes up and does a x/r. How do you deal with
I wouldn't worry about redline as much at these stakes and I think the hands you have posted are perfectly fine bet/folds. These aren't stakes where regs will exploit you much on the river if at all. Not saying don't try to improve, always try to improve but I wouldn't worry about being exploited when bet/folding the river at 25nl.
For the most part over folding vs. river raises that are non-all-in is going to be best (the non-all-in raises are bluffed less often). You'll also want to consider things like what their value range is, whether or not they have natural bluffs, what your perceived range might be, and any villain specific tendencies.
