KK vs 2 calling stations
2/5 NLHE, card room, $1200 max buy, 8 max, full table
V1 - $1200 - young Asian male, LAG. Reraises pre often, but has folded every time I’ve bet post flop. 3Bs pre way too often to have that many good hands. He’s been at the table maybe an hour and has shown down made hands and bluffs. He was felted his first orbit but has since doubled a $600 rebuy.
V2 - middle aged white male, LP. Plays 70-80% of hands, almost always limping. I’ve never seen him 3B pre. He’s been stacked twice in 4 hours and buys in fairly short. $800. I’ve targeted him all day because he’s loose and easy. Most of my winnings are from him.
Hero – older white guy, grey beard, been card dead, haven’t had any premium hands all day. I’m sure they think I’m an OMC because I’ve played so few hands. I’ve 3B pre with a few hands like 78s and all my CB bluffs have been uncontested, so I’ve not shown down a single hand in 4 hours and only been to the river 2 or 3 times. I’m up to about $1600
V1, UTG, opens to $20. V2, UTG+1, as usual calls. H in CO raises to $60, all folds except for V1 & 2.
Q1: I think that was my first error. I didn’t want to chase them away so I went a bit light. I should have made it $80. Agreed? More?
Flop (pot = $240) Qh9c5h. They check, check, and I bet $100. V1 fold, V2 calls. Only 2 hands I’m concerned about that might be in V2s range are JT and any 2 flushers, but he could be lots wider than that.
Q2: second error? Maybe 50 – 60% of pot would be right, about $150?
Turn (pot = $440) Qh9c5h3h. V2 made a subtle move for his chips but then checked. Maybe that was some sort of bluff but I’ve not seen him do anything similar before and I’ve seen him in lots of big hands. Maybe he caught that flush?
Q3: bet when checked to? I really thought there was a good chance he caught the flush so I checked.
River (pot = $440) Qh9c5h3hKs. I’ve got trips but now both of my concern hands for V2 have made the effective nuts. He pauses and bets $250.
Q4: call, fold, raise?
18 Replies
First question, do you have the Kh?
Pre should be minimum 80 probably 100. Flop sizing is fine, I wouldn't go bigger. Turn I like betting like 150 to get value from Qx and folding if he jams. River everything got there but it's $250 for $690. I'm not folding top set.
I l Do you have the Kh?
Preflop one thing both Vs have in common is wide ranges. Without knowing how V2 has responded to preflop raise sizes, I would size my 3! down from 100 to 80.
Flop I'm okay if we lose V1. I would bet 180. Targeting Qx, TT, 9x, flush draws, and (if V2 is your typical LP) cards that gutshot around the Q & 9.
Turn pot is 440. Effective stack has 560. I'm checking back the turn. Vs a LP opponent I would also check back my flushes.
River We are getting ~2.75:1. Many players believe that you always bet when you hit the flush (which is why I check back the turn). Is V2 one of those players. I'm not putting much stock in the "physical tell" on the turn. V could have KQ(discounted), Q9, K9(discounted), AhK. With th'e Kh I make the call easily. Without the Kh I'm ready to see a flush but not often enough.
2/5 NLHE, card room, $1200 max buy, 8 max, full table V1 - $1200 - young Asian male, LAG. Reraises pre often, but has folded every time I’ve bet post flop. 3Bs pre way too often to have that many good hands. He’s been at the table maybe an hour and has shown down made hands and bluffs. He was felted his first orbit but has since doubled a $600 rebuy. V2 - middle aged wh
If your image is OMC / nitty, it's hard to get any action when you 3B for any size. Maybe a larger raise folds out V1 and gets called by V2, but then you're going HU to the flop with $180 in the pot rather than $240.
When you raise to $60, there's some non-zero percent chance V1 4B's to push V2 out, so I think your $60 3B size has its merits, and we can't hate on it too much.
Flop (pot = $240) Qh9c5h. They check, check, and I bet $100. V1 fold, V2 calls. Only 2 hands I’m concerned about that might be in V2s range are JT and any 2 flushers, but he could be lots wider than that.
Q2: second error? Maybe 50 – 60% of pot would be right, about $150?
In theory / all other things being equal, I'd typically c-bet 1/3 pot or less here. Probably less when it's multi-way and 3B pre, so maybe only 1/4 pot, like $60, or maybe $80 at most. If you can bet $100 into $240 and get called by worse, with your image, you're doing well.
There is some concern that V2 may have flopped 2P and is slow-playing when we use this larger c-bet size, but I would tend to discount 2P simply because low-stakes recs tend to worry more about the obvious draws getting there when they have 2P+ than they worry about folding out our over-pairs on this board.
So, again, I think your bet size is okay, and we can't hate on it too much.
Turn (pot = $440) Qh9c5h3h. V2 made a subtle move for his chips but then checked. Maybe that was some sort of bluff but I’ve not seen him do anything similar before and I’ve seen him in lots of big hands. Maybe he caught that flush?
Q3: bet when checked to? I really thought there was a good chance he caught the flush so I checked.
Maybe he caught the flush. Maybe he just has 1 heart, like the Ah, and thought about bluffing before he thought better of it. Maybe he limp-called pre with Ah9o and thought he should donk.
Maybe he flopped 2P, and for whatever reason decided not to check-raise flop, preferring to wait until the turn, but now he doesn't like the flush card, and was thinking about donking before changing his mind.
Maybe he floated the flop with 33, putting us on AK, and he turned a set, but doesn't like that there are three flush cards on board.
On a nut-changing card, I'd typically size down, to let him raise with his nutted hands. But we could also just check back and evaluate on the river. I'd expect him to donk 1/2 pot or less with his missed draws and weird 1P, and bet big with his thick value hands.
I think here I'd prefer to just check it back and see what happens on the river.
River (pot = $440) Qh9c5h3hKs. I’ve got trips but now both of my concern hands for V2 have made the effective nuts. He pauses and bets $250.
Q4: call, fold, raise?
Hmmmm...he's betting just a smidge over 1/2 pot. I'd think he'd bet larger with his nutted hands, and we do beat some worse value. We may have induced him to bet by checking back the turn, so I'd be more inclined to bluff-catch with our top set.
I wouldn't raise, because it's hard to think what worse calls, other than maybe lower sets. I'd need to know more about him before I fold. I think we just have to call, and if he has us beat, just tap the table and say nice hand.
Think it's the definition of a crying call, Deke, but part of me just wants to fold to the twit. OTOH, you're going to get the money back, so...
I'd be stunned if V doesn't have a flush.
The checkpoints in your OP are minor errors, if anything. Yeah, you probably should've gone 80 pf here, unless you could reverse tell V1 you're weak by going 125 or so.
As for V2, otf they're drawing, or they have a Queen. And they (unlike V1) aren't looking at your range. So, V1 folding to a flop b40, totally normal. B80 OTOH, they still might fold, but also might go, "LOL, BS. Hero really has QQ here? No...", and raise a bet that doesn't comport with their view of your range. You got sucked out on. It happens.
Not to be dismissive, because I can be pretty verbose in my threads as well, but this is a lot of words and thought for a spot where the villain bet half pot. You just can't fold very often facing half pot, especially when you can conceivably beat value and are arguably at the stone top of your range.
Poker is a game of infinite decisions and mental challenges. Simplify these types of spots for yourself. If you call and the villain has a better hand, just tap the table and move on.
I'd go larger pre. V1 should call a ton, knowing V2 is always calling. I don't mind playing both of them IP, but still would like to raise to 80 min.
Flop, I'd like to bet about pot. JT, many hearts and many queens in their range. Don't expect a lot of folds for almost any amount. Even if V1 is good, he can call pretty wide, especially with good draws, knowing V2 is in the hand. V1 should be folding most queens to a big bet imo, but not guarantee that he will. V2 is calling all the hands mentioned for any amount.
Turn... betting smaller now. V is described as very passive so we don't need to worry about a CR bluff. We also don't have outs when beat by a straight or flush. So we can value bet small and easy fold when raised. We are also kind of naming our price on the amount we lose to a flush.
AP, calling river. As others mentioned, we beat some value bets. He probably never turns pairs into bluffs, but if he has something like 67 or t8, it's a pretty good spot to bluff even for someone who does it rarely.
I don’t think your sizings are a factor. However, I don’t like your reasoning for not betting the turn. Villain grabs chips and checks and you immediately put him on the nuts. Guys playing every hand, he misses everything a lot.
Typical thought is that when OMC checks the turn, he can be pressured to fold. After checking back the turn, you can no longer put villain on a hand and lots of players will make a move here.
So, you induced a river bet and have to call. His 2pair was worried, but you indicated that you don’t have the flush. I don’t think a raise is smart as only a better hand will call.
These answers are difficult because we don’t know villain, only you do. The guy may be better than you indicate, but he’s playing too many hands & making bad decisions, so I’m not going away, he’s got to show me a better hand.
AP, calling river. As others mentioned, we beat some value bets. He probably never turns pairs into bluffs, but if he has something like 67 or t8, it's a pretty good spot to bluff even for someone who does it rarely.
While we agree that the river is a call, I strongly disagree with the idea that this player will never turn a pair into a bluff. Fish bluff merged hands. They don't care about showdown value and don't understand concepts like minimum defense frequency, which is why they bluff for half pot. I actually wouldn't be shocked if a player like this played 76cc as a pure give up, but bet almost all of his QX because "I thought you would fold AK."
If villain "rarely bluffs" then it changes the equation significantly, but I didn't see that in the reads. River is probably still a call though.
The reveal -
OK - I screwed the pooch. I tanked, and decided the straight and flush possibilities were too great. I folded hating myself just a little.
V2 said, "You did the right thing, I had you," with no hint of sarcasm. He really thought he had me beat. Then he showed 93o for 2P. Damn. He was even worse than I thought.
I did manage to get about $200 more off of him before he felted 2 more times and went home.
Looking back at the hand, I think the better sizing of my bets along the way would have made the river call easier.
Thank you all for your input.
The reveal - OK - I screwed the pooch. I tanked, and decided the straight and flush possibilities were too great. I folded hating myself just a little. V2 said, "You did the right thing, I had you," with no hint of sarcasm. He really thought he had me beat. Then he showed 93o for 2P. Damn. He was even worse than I thought. I did manage to get about $200 more off of him
Perfect example of the fish merge IMO. I bet that if you call, he says "You probably win" and "I was hoping you would fold that" after you show.
Your exact line (small cbet on flop, check back on turn) is what Marc Goone calls "the most profitable line in live poker" for IP, because fish can't help but "monkey bet" the river for half pot, whether they think they are bluffing or value-betting.
Calling here and being wrong is NOT a significant mistake. In fact, I would argue that calling here (regardless of result) prints money against this player. Folding is the mistake, even if the guy shows some trashy flush. Never fold any bluff catcher when a whale bets half pot in this spot.
V2 - middle aged white male, LP. Plays 70-80% of hands, almost always limping. I’ve never seen him 3B pre. He’s been stacked twice in 4 hours and buys in fairly short. $800. I’ve targeted him all day because he’s loose and easy. Most of my winnings are from him.
In theory / all other things being equal, I'd typically c-bet 1/3 pot or less here. Probably less when it's multi-way and 3B pre, so maybe only 1/4 pot, like $60, or maybe $80 at most. If you can bet $100 into $240 and get called by worse, with your image, you're doing well.There is some concern that V2 may have flopped 2P and is slow-playing when we use this larger c-bet size,
We have an 80% vpip whale in the pot who isn't folding anything that connected with this flop. We'll worry about V2 when he gives us a reason to and if he folds and we get to play HU with the whale that's a huge win for us. Anything but pot on this flop is bad.
The image comment is just lol. Like an 80% vpip whale has the slightest idea what our ''image'' means.
Think it's the definition of a crying call, Deke, but part of me just wants to fold to the twit. OTOH, you're going to get the money back, so...I'd be stunned if V doesn't have a flush.The checkpoints in your OP are minor errors, if anything. Yeah, you probably should've gone 80 pf here, unless you could reverse tell V1 you're weak by going 125 or so. As for V2, otf they're
Do you understand what 80% vpip means?
I did manage to get about $200 more off of him before he felted 2 more times and went home.
OK - I screwed the pooch. I tanked, and decided the straight and flush possibilities were too great. I folded hating myself just a little.
Poker is a race to the whales money. Playing hands like this passively will cost you heaps of money in the long run. You know what will print you money? Betting strong hands big and not constantly convincing yourself that because a flush card came villain now will only call with flushes. If I read the thread correctly villain has reloaded 4 times? Doubt he was playing good poker.
If OP called river his line probably makes him more than if he takes larger sizing pre and on flop.
Given the excessive rake structure of today's casino poker, we have to reconsider the EV of preflop raising strategies a bit more than in the good old days. I'm happy to take this pot down preflop, rake-free every day of the week. So I like a bigger raise.
Flop is standard but I prefer to bet this turn for reasons others have outlined.
I'm more worried about a straight on this river than a flush, given the preflop action. (Obviously the reveal suggests V can have ATC.) But we cannot fold against even a tighter V getting ~5-2.
If OP called river his line probably makes him more than if he takes larger sizing pre and on flop.
Whale isn't folding a pair or a draw to a psb on this flop. OP would have to make an additional $110 on turn/river to make more than any of your suggested lines. Hell even if we plays it as a pot on flop, check on turn and call on river he makes way more and that's taking the passive 2p2 special line where we apparently hate betting for value against whales.
Given the excessive rake structure of today's casino poker, we have to reconsider the EV of preflop raising strategies a bit more than in the good old days. I'm happy to take this pot down preflop, rake-free every day of the week. So I like a bigger raise.Flop is standard but I prefer to bet this turn for reasons others have outlined.I'm more worried about a straight on this ri
Seriously. What? You realize we have KK vs 2 calling stations one of which is an 80% vpip whale right?
The reveal - OK - I screwed the pooch. I tanked, and decided the straight and flush possibilities were too great. I folded hating myself just a little. V2 said, "You did the right thing, I had you," with no hint of sarcasm. He really thought he had me beat. Then he showed 93o for 2P. Damn. He was even worse than I thought. I did manage to get about $200 more off of him
It's okay to make mistakes. It's part of learning.
Taking you at your word regarding the reads and your table image, and in light of the reveal, I don't think your bet sizing in this hand was problematic. I think your line was good, other than folding to his 1/2 pot river bet. Your smaller raise pre likely got more money into the pot than a larger raise would have, and you followed that up with a larger c-bet that got called by a hand you had crushed.
Trying to be helpful - understand you're never going to play this exact hand against this exact V in this exact spot again, so rather than zooming in on the minute details, it's better to zoom out and look for the big-picture lesson to be learned.
IMO, the biggest takeaways to embed in your mind for future use would be these:
1. Whenever we slow down and show weakness by checking when we have the betting lead, it's going to increase the frequency of our opponents bluffing, or betting worse for value, or (especially at lower stakes) stabbing with random, middling strength hands that would otherwise make decent bluff catchers, and thus shouldn't be turned into bluffs by stabbing.
2. When opponents do this, they tend to have sizing tells, such that they size up with thick value (because greed) and down with their bluffs and thin value (because fear).
3. As a corollary to the first point above, any time we're the aggressor and we check any street, we're inducing more aggression from our opponents, and as a result we have to call down more, not less. When we have a strong and / or under-repped hand, over-folding to an aggressive action by an opponent after we've checked is likely to be a bigger mistake than over-calling.
The line of raising pre, c-betting the flop, checking back the turn with SDV, and bluff-catching the river when our opponents bet around 1/2 pot is an extremely profitable line. Good video tutorial about the line can be found here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQWXb3C5....
lol
It's okay to make mistakes. It's part of learning. Taking you at your word regarding the reads and your table image, and in light of the reveal, I don't think your bet sizing in this hand was problematic. I think your line was good, other than folding to his 1/2 pot river bet. Your smaller raise pre likely got more money into the pot than a larger raise would have,
You size UP vs whales, not DOWN. 40% by definition isn't large. You were accused of being disingenuous before, you're doing it again.
Trying to be helpful - understand you're never going to play this exact hand against this exact V in this exact spot again, so rather than zooming in on the minute details, it's better to zoom out and look for the big-picture lesson to be learned.
While the highlighted certainly is true what is also true is that you will be playing spots like this(OP to the board vs whales) quite a lot and most of your money will be coming from these spots. So to suggest that someone should ''ignore minute details'' when those details are about flop sizing(where a lot of your money will be made) is just lol.
IMO, the biggest takeaways to embed in your mind for future use would be these:
1. Whenever we slow down and show weakness by checking when we have the betting lead, it's going to increase the frequency of our opponents bluffing, or betting worse for value, or (especially at lower stakes) stabbing with random, middling strength hands that would otherwise make decent bluff catchers, and thus shouldn't be turned into bluffs by stabbing.
2. When opponents do this, they tend to have sizing tells, such that they size up with thick value (because greed) and down with their bluffs and thin value (because fear).
3. As a corollary to the first point above, any time we're the aggressor and we check any street, we're inducing more aggression from our opponents, and as a result we have to call down more, not less. When we have a strong and / or under-repped hand, over-folding to an aggressive action by an opponent after we've checked is likely to be a bigger mistake than over-calling.
The line of raising pre, c-betting the flop, checking back the turn with SDV, and bluff-catching the river when our opponents bet around 1/2 pot is an extremely profitable line. Good video tutorial about the line can be found here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQWXb3C5....
Just because OP accidentally stumbled upon and butchered an ''extremely profitable line'' doesn't mean it was the best way to play this hand.
