NL25 T8s - FD / two pair vs river jam
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.77) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]
SB ($27.67) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
HERO ($28.39)
UTG ($37.04) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
HJ ($30.41) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
CO ($24.67) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
Dealt to Hero: 8♣ T♣
UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.63, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.38
Hero SPR on Flop: [20.41 effective]
Flop ($1.36): A♠ 2♣ 4♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $1.02 (Rem. Stack: $28.76), HERO Calls $1.02 (Rem. Stack: $26.74)
Turn ($3.40): A♠ 2♣ 4♣ T♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $4.60 (Rem. Stack: $24.16), HERO Calls $4.60 (Rem. Stack: $22.14)
River ($12.60): A♠ 2♣ 4♣ T♥ 8♠
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $24.16 (allin), HERO ? ? ?
I recently had at least 3-4 hands like these, i.e. I x/c the flop and then Villain would overbet the turn and river. Whenever I saw the hand, it would usually fall into one of two categories:
- strong made hand, at least TPTK if not two pair+
- strong combo draw but without SD value
So here we are.
Flop: standard x/c here, there aren't any straight outs here, so can't really x/r this.
Turn: I upgrade to FD+a pair, but Villain applies more pressure - I don't think we can fold this.
River: Despite the fact of my hand upgrading to two pair, that might still not be enough against whatever hand he goes really strong with. A typical B75 I would have called, but this one looks like a set or two pair. If only I wouldn't block so many clubs, I would consider x/c this, else I don't think there are enough bluff combos here, but on the other hand it's two pair.
7 Replies
They cbet 75% on a very bad board for the preflop opener. By the way I'm not sure your call there is "standard", I know it's OK but the situation doesn't look good.
On the turn they overbet. Again you feel forced to call.
And finally they shove almost 2x pot on the river.
This seems like an instafold to me. To start with, you have tons and tons of Ax 2-pair. And even if you had A8 for example, it would be a dubious call versus a microstakes villain.
Also, I believe you actually want to block clubs if you bluffcatch. Busted club draws are a big portion of the range villain tries for make you fold, so they won't bluff when they have clubs, so when you have clubs it is more likely that villain is bluffing. At least this is often how it works, although I believe there are exceptions, maybe I am completely wrong lol
I wouldn't say Axx board is bad for the PFR, in fact, quite the opposite 😀
Hmm, you think flop is not a standard x/c with a FD? I know CO's range is narrower and we don't have any overcards + it's not a nut FD, but if we fold a hand like this, then we fold almost everything and can be exploited on club runouts.
Yeah, I feel forced to call because I should have 14-outer against Ax and 11-outer against two pair + ahead of other draws with a pair.
River is indeed tricky. As for the blockers, I am not sure how many of them he can have, all I know that right now he can have:
- Tx (ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, T8s) =6
- 8x (A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s) = 4
So if he has any busted FDs out there, their total number is now decreased by at least 10 -> which means value hands make up for a bigger portion of his range. Indeed, if he has the clubs himself, it's less likely that I have the clubs that I could fold, but you see, we don't know what he has, neither he knows what we have.
So from his perspective, if he has clubs, it's now pretty tough. If he doesn't, it's better for him to bluff.
From our perspective, having clubs here is a disaster. Means he has more % of value hands. On the other hand though, it also means he is less likely to have clubs and therefore...might be more inclined to bluff 😃
You're the only once having the nuts (53), you have far more 22 & 33 than them since you call them all and they don't open them full frequency for this 2.5bb open size (or at least they shouldn't). All their big pairs get highly devalued with the A on the flop. All their broadways with no club are worth horses..t. And the list goes on.
Hmm, you think flop is not a standard x/c with a FD? I know CO's range is narrower and we don't have any overcards + it's not a nut FD, but if we fold a hand like this, then we fold almost everything and can be exploited on club runouts.
I did not suggest to fold every club draw, but this one is one of the worst. It doesn't connect to the board at all, cannot make a backdoor straight and hit only middle pairs. It's a pretty weak draw. I think it's fine to call, but in your OP you treat the topic as "standard" as if you think it's a slam dunk call.
Yeah, I feel forced to call because I should have 14-outer against Ax and 11-outer against two pair + ahead of other draws with a pair.
You consider villain can have 'Ax' and bet 3/4 pot on the flop and then overbet on the turn. I consider it is very unlikely, or villain is pretty special. I agree some players will overplay random AK, AQ, AJ but if we are making big assumptions we can draw any conclusion.
Below solver output for HJ action on the flop. Almost a range check, only hands betting big are 44 & 22 for value, and very rarely some flush draws or some unnatural bluffs like QJ diamonds. We can assume our microstakes villain will instead incorrectly bet big with AA and completely miss the unnatural bluffs.
Very valuable insights. Also thanks for challenging my thought process, apparently I made way too many assumptions here. I am wondering what would solver do here with Tc8c.
Btw, what's this solver?
Mix call/fold on the flop, mix call/fold on the turn, pure fold on the river. GTO+
