NL25 AQs - double gutter + overcards in 4-bet pot

NL25 AQs - double gutter + overcards in 4-bet pot

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($13.72) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
HERO ($38.81)
BB ($24.82) [VPIP: 75% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 14.3% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 50% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 4]
UTG ($8.83) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 6]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]
CO ($25.70) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]

Dealt to Hero: Q A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.63, BB Raises To $2.25, HERO Raises To $5.63, BB Calls $3.38

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.7 effective]
Flop ($11.26): T J 5
HERO Bets $3 (Rem. Stack: $30.18), BB Calls $3 (Rem. Stack: $16.19)

Turn ($17.26): T J 5 8
HERO ? ? ?

Villain seemed very 3-bet happy, I also felt like he was more inclined to 3-bet against a 2.5 bb RFI instead of 3.0 bb. My plan was to 4b/c AQs pre here, as I did expect some 88+/AJs/AQo jams.

Flop: standard range bet around 1/3 here, I have plenty of overpairs, sets and draws here.

Turn: I don't think this card helped his range a ton besides 98s or A8s. On the other hand, I only dominate KQ and against Jx this doesn't look good. There might be some occasional AA slowplays too:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 25.97% 25.65% 0.32% AsQs
MP3 74.03% 73.70% 0.32% AdAh, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, KcQc, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo

With 26% equity, I would need ~~ 46% fold equity to break even. Above are 28 combos, can we find 24 combos that would fold on the turn? I also assumed no slowplayed KK/QQ/JJ/TT. I did assume AJs though, without it my equity roughly stays the same.

22 December 2025 at 10:04 PM
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2 Replies


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I would check/fold because our hand doesn't have much going for it on this board and I feel like I'm burning money every time I keep shoveling money into the pot in those situations. I admit this is not a very scientific advice... I also have doubts about the 1/4 pot cbet on this flop, I feel like they can comfortably call with a lot of their range. But I don't really know. Would be interested in reading better players advice here.


This 1/4 c-bet will probably only get rid of some weaker PPs ad maybe A4s, if he decided to 3b/c it with. On the other hand, x/c here doesn't look super good too.

Turn is tricky, cause we pick up additional equity, but against made hands it is still not enough. Tx and AK (if he ever decides to flat it) are in a very tough spot though.

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