1/2, QQ vs . . . him again

Can’t improve on hitch’s detailed (well done) post, but before I fold

It’s not really about what he wants, but what does he expect you to do?

If he expects you to fold, then he’s liable to be wide - caught a diamond draw or something

If he expects you to call, he’s likely nutted.

Has he beat you at showdown often?
Has he pressured you to fold often?
Does he rarely go to showdown?

I would be noting every-time he scratches his head, you’ve got to get a handle on this guy.

This board has a zillion straight and flush draws, but only one made straight. This seems like an easy call.

I would not bet the turn 3-way in position on this wet board, not wanting to get raised like this.

I dont see how you're good here - he also called from the bb so he's more likely to have the 67 and wider range of hands that connect here. You would need him to jam hands like A9/TT/etc to call - unless you have info on him we don't know about I'd fold.

The population would be under-bluffing when check-raising turn as V. I suppose we might level ourselves into thinking that as a good player, he knows that, and is just leveraging his range advantage on this board as the BB calling pre.

I do think he has plenty of bluffs here. I also think we made a mistake barreling turn. The fact that he jammed rather than using a smaller size makes me think he'd like us to fold, so...

Yeah, I might pay this off, because it's *this* V. I wouldn't love it, and I'd hate myself if he has it. I don't even know if I'd be able to feel good about calling if he is bluffing, simply because we shouldn't have put ourselves in this position.

And if he is bluffing, I'd expect him to be doing it with a decent amount of equity. Curse the gods if he gets there.

Those saying we should have checked turn are suffering from some serious results-oriented thinking. We might not love that he jammed, but the turn is an almost mandatory bet with a strong but vulnerable overpair and infinite draws out there. I would have likely bet a bit bigger to set up a river jam, which also makes calling the turn jam the clearer play as we'd be getting a better price.

As played if my math is correct we need to be good 35.5% of the time to call. Unless you've got a read that he only does this with made hands I think you've got to sigh call. You're in great shape against all the numerous combo draws. Even against two pair you've got over 18% equity so it's not like you're drawing dead. It sucks when he has a set or straight, but it is what it is. There are just too many draws. If I've ever seen this guy show up with a combo draw in this sort of spot I'm calling.

There are player types that only go all in here with made hands like 2-pair plus, and in that case sure you fold. Even against that type I still think bet-folding turn would be better than checking.

Do you really not see how big a contradiction this is?

It impacts his range significantly so not sure why we'd say it doesn't outweigh the above. If villain never has 2p+ on the turn he's essentially narrowed down to 67s(I'm assuming he folds 67o to 6.5x MP opens) and draws? That's very different from 2p+ and draws.

I cba going through 4-5 different HHs to find out who villain is. Does he c/r flop with 2p+ and can he shove turn with draws?

Also at first glance, bet/fold turn seems to be infinitely better than checking turn. It's odd how everyone agrees there's a million draws and somehow advocate for checking turn.

something thats noteworthy here is no one has talked about heroes perceived range. Yes we know heroes hand, but villain does not, what does villian think we have?

from villains POV:

V1 limp, V2 raises to $13, V3 calls, Hero completes from BB with XX, V1 calls.

Flop 4d 8h 9h (pot - $50)

Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 bets $25, V3 fold, Hero calls, V1 calls

Turn 4d 8h 9h 5d (pot - $125)

Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 bets $75, Hero ??

What does villains range look like?

It's possible I'm being results oriented. It's also possible I'm giving this particular V too much credit. I'm sure my response is colored by the past hand histories OP has played vs this V, and what I think V may be doing in this set-up.

OP previously described V as the best player in his player pool. When there's a limp from a tilted player up front, our hero raises, and gets called by another player in LP, I think V is going to defend his BB pretty wide, with the intention of making a play for the pot at some point.

The LP opponent folded to our flop c-bet, and the limper just over-called, despite the board being pretty wet, so it's unlikely he has 2P+. The 5d on the turn is unlikely to have improved the limper's hand when he checks again. So when hero barrels, the conditions are right for V to check-raise.

On the one hand, if we expect V to over-bluff, we shouldn't be worried, and we don't need to check back the turn. We should want him to check-raise, and we should call. On the other hand, we don't really love getting check-raised when we just have an over-pair, and V could have all the 2P+.

With two Q's in our hand, including the Qh, I think checking back the turn to induce river bluffs is okay. We're holding two of the outs for all the combos of JT, and one of the outs for the FDFD. There's a decent chance our opponents are both drawing, and holding each other's outs.

If V x-jammed and the limper called, we'd be sick. As it is, I think we have to call, but V would need to be over-bluffing for us to feel great about it. I think this V can have a ton of bluffs here, but he could also have a ton of value.

A bit of silver lining for OP - I'd tend to discount the likelihood that the last hand where hero snapped off another opponent's x/r-bluff with TPTK has any bearing here. I don't think V is likely to be making a huge adjustment on the very next hand - he's not planning to check-jam the turn when he defends the BB pre-flop or floats the flop.

FWIW, I might have just checked back on the flop, at least some of the time, if we're expecting the opponent behind us to stab at it often enough. I'd be more inclined to check if I noticed the LP opponent stabbing a lot when action checked to him, and more inclined to just c-bet if he seemed to be more passive.

I just tend to play a little more cautiously in multi-way pots.

In a past HH vs this V, OP said V likely views him as tight-passive / nitty. If that's how V views OP, he can probably discount the likelihood that OP has many straights, and probably thinks OP is going to be pretty capped at top set.

For thick value, OP can have 99 and 88, all the over-pairs, and the NFD in hearts. V would have to have elevated his opinion of OP to give OP credit for 44, 98, 76, the diamond draw, or JTs.

OP's actual hand is pretty far down in the range V is probably giving him. And if V's structuring correctly, he's only doing this with hands that have reasonably good equity against that range if OP calls the jam.

I'm rooting for OP to send this kid packing, but I also like how the kid is bringing it to OP with his play. He probably expects OP to play all his over-pairs this way, and knows he can put OP in the blender (a lot) by over-defending his BB and just watching how OP and the other opponents play in a multi-way pot.

He's good, but he doesn't have to be *THAT* good to make a profit in this game, when one of his opponents gives up on the flop rather than floating IP, and the other two are effectively playing face-up.

The main reason I think we have to call here is because we know that V knows he can make this play in this spot with his entire range and print.

Another reason I don't really love barreling this turn is that V can also put us in the blender by flatting again, and donking on almost any river card. Checking back the turn with the intention of bluff-catching the river seems better than barreling and possibly hero-folding the best hand.

Still possibly giving V too much credit, but if he's as good as OP says, he may be good enough to intuit that he can make this play on the turn with both his value and his high-equity semi-bluffs, knowing he'll get there often enough when he's bluffing and get called often enough when he has it.

Conversely, if he just flats again, he's letting the EP limper realize his equity, and he could end up bluffing into the nuts on the river.

Watch out, Marchron. A few more HH's like this one, and we'll be rooting for him, rather than you.

Also - bet-folding here against this V is torching. We might as well rack up and go home if we're going to do that.

Either check back to induce and bluff-catch, or commit to the hand and bet with the intention of calling when he check-jams.

He's a 1/2 reg. Being the ''best player'' in this pool means exactly nothing.

Would you say population plays 2P+ like this on the flop? Genuine question.

Right and when he does that we can't click call or something? It's odd you all acknowledge there's a plethora of draws out there and somehow still want to check turn or even weirder, check flop.

I think bet folding turn is fine. Line looks fine tbh

Might be right. As I said in my post I'm not going to read 5 hhs to determine if this reg is capable of bluffing or not. I'd argue bet/folding vs population is infinitely better than checking any street here though.

Weak passive regs prefer checking super wet boards instead of learning how and when to bet/fold.

so the reason i brought up what heros range looks like from villains pov is because would hero bet 25 with 99 or 88 on that flop? probably not. would be betting 35-40 vs 3 players trying to maximize value. so if we can rule out 99, 88 then hero likely has an overpair or 2 overs and a FD. on the flop.

turn - probably rules out most fds with overs, so hero is kind of capped to pps. if villain thinks along these lines he will be x/jamming 1pr+plethora of combo draws or 2pr plus attempting to put hero to a decision with one pair. this spot really isnt one that should be studied in my opinion because its likely a neutral EV spot where your range as a whole is going to be flipping vs villains range as a whole so in the long run it doesnt matter all that much.

I don't know what size OP bets with 99 / 88 on the flop. I don't know what size V thinks OP bets with 99 or 88 on the flop. They have history against each other, so OP would be in a better position to tell us what V may think about his range when he c-bets 25 into 40.

I don't know if it's worth studying this spot or not, or if it really is neutral EV. Against the population, I'd over-fold, because I'm not giving the population credit for being able to find this line often enough with bluffs. Against this V, the way OP has described him, I'd over-call, because I think he finds it a little too often.

I think it's worth studying how we arrived in this spot - we raised 6.5x pre over a limp from a guy who probably would have called an 10x raise, with a loose-passive guy behind us, and a frequent nemesis in the BB. Then we chose to c-bet a smidge more than 1/2 pot on a super wet and dynamic board into three opponents - not really enough to define anyone's range or get more than 1 or 2 of our opponents to fold away much equity. Then we barreled on the 2nd worst possible turn card, and got jammed on.

I like the cut of OP's jib, and wasn't looking to beat up on him, but we're only in a neutral EV spot because we put ourselves in the spot. A larger raise pre, a check back or smaller or larger bet on the flop, a check-back or over-bet on the turn, and we wouldn't be having the discussion.

OP - if it helps, and FWIW...

PRE - I think we could raise bigger when UTG limps and we know he's tilted. He's not folding often enough, but a larger raise likely shuts out the LP dickhead, and discourages V from contemplating shenanigans pre or post.

FLOP - As played, I don't think we're doing much betting $25 into $40. If we think LP is likely to stab, check and let him stab. If we think he's unlikely to stab, either bet small to see if anyone wants to check-raise, or bet huge to target the bazillion worse hands that aren't ready to fold yet. Maybe bet $10-$15, or $60-$80, but not $20-$30.

TURN - As played, either check back to bluff-catch river, or bet small (1/2 pot or less) because it's a nut-changing card, or over-bet (1.5x-2x pot) to charge their draws, or take this bad-reg 2/3 to 3/4 pot sizing, but for the love of God, if you're going to bet for this size, do not fold if either of these guys jams.

Your line on this board, in this set-up, is likely to induce this action from one or the other of these two V's. I'd rather have a better hand if we're going to induce a jam, but I'd also rather be taller, and yet here we are, you getting jammed on and me stuck at 5'9".

You have to bet turn, there's a bazillion draws and you are behind sets, 2p, 76, AA/KK. We can discount AA/KK because nobody 3!, we can discount sets because those raise flop a ton except 55, which does 55 even call flop? We can discount two pair without a 5 because that raises flop a lot.

So our equity on the turn vs likely ranges is huge, but vulnerable to the bazillion draws. The only problem with the turn bet is that it's too small. I'd overbet at least $125, make them pay bad prices with draws. The only reason to bet small is if we believe V will x/r too frequently with draws - which is very easy to do the way the hand went down. If I were V, I'm probably x/r too much here. And we'd be betting small to encourage the semi-bluff. Well here we are, we induced, time to gamble.

Our bet looks weak, and V could be jamming over that weakness with a ton of hands that have equity. He was BB so really all sorts of suited combos are in his range. If he has 76, I'm just paying it off. I don't see how it's even close if you construct any reasonable range for V.

Just reviewed the hhs, in every single one, he x/r and apparently had nothing in two of them, the third we don't know because you folded. All hhs read like V knows he can push you around and he always mucks either after checking down river or after H folded. After reading the hhs, my chips would have beat his into the pot. V thinks you have an overpair, and he thinks you're going to fold it.

I mean he x/r vs two players on a AQ4r board then folded turn... that's air. A998 board he x/r turn, then checked back brick river and mucked - one million percent he lied when he said he had a 9. That's air taking a stab.

This guy raises your bets a ton with air. Call.

Ya I mean I think in general at low stakes bet folding here is the best line

Agreed
But I think a lot of people have trouble with this line. They don’t go in thinking bet/fold.

They think going in that they’re ahead
Get raised, look at all the money they put in the middle, and just don’t want to let it go.

In my games, I don’t think many are thinking through the streets, or how this decision will affect the next. They think more like this hand is worth this, and that hand is worth that.

OP played this well.
It’s never fun to bet/fold a strong hand.
It’s just hard to find anyone shoving light that hasn’t already busted and left.

I respect people’s opinions, but this is a game of offense. You attack until forced to back down - that’s hard to play against. No one feels comfortable with a player that keeps firing chips at you.

If I have the lead, I can’t remember the last time I checked the flop and I really hate checking the turn. Why? Because when people do that to me, I steal the pot at least 70% of the time. Checking the turn always looks like and usually is - a give up. Sometimes I float the flop simply because I think villain might check the turn and give it to me.

I admit that trappy guys laying in the weeds get me sometimes, but I’m getting better at recognizing, and not value owning myself. But it does happen. ***anyone with tips on recognizing that you’re betting into a monster

I coached defense on the football field for 40 years, and loved it, but in the game of no limit poker, defense doesn’t win championships. When things aren’t going well and I recognize myself becoming passive, I’m out the door and on my way home.

Actually I feel very comfortable playing against someone that keeps firing chips at me just as I feel comfortable against someone that never fires unless they have it. Both are deviations from proper strategy and both; once the tendency is known, are very easy to exploit.

A pattern I see in this forum is getting in sticky situations with better players. Why? You want to avoid the good players as much as possible and exploit the fish.

In this hand if both players are fish you value bet relentlessly. But against a better player you could have simply checked the turn and showed down the hand for only one more bet. Yes it partially sucks because there’s a lot of draws out there but when V knows what you have you’re pretty easy to play against.