top 2 facing strong line

I noticed some regs use overbets OTT with two pair+ (to charge your TP and draws) or with combo draws and then almost always jam river. You don't have Q♣, which is a big plus, cause you unblock AQs/QJs/QTs/Q9s on top of many other combo draws, all of which have busted besides 76s. Call.

To justify calling a 1.5x pot overbet and a river shove, we need 40% break-even equity. In 25NL, a UTG range (reg) is never bluffing at that frequency. Calling simply because we have Two Pair and ignoring its relative strength against a polarized overbet range, that will destroy our win rate over time.

Theory bluff Range exists in books, but rarely at the tables (micro stakes). In 25NL, I wouldn’t expect an UTG range (reg) bluffing at that frequency to justify the call

Think of it mathematically. What are the nut combos Villain might shove here?

Set (8)
- KK and QQ are 1 combo each,
- there 3 combos of 55 and 44 = 8 in total

Straight (2)
- 1 combo of 7s6s - I doubt he would overbet other 76s, but let's make it 2
= 10

Two pair (4)
- KQ: 4 combos that you split with

Potential combo draw bluffs (7)
- Ac2c, Ac3c
- 8c7c
- 9c8c
- Tc9c
- JcTc, Jc9c

Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.86% 33.33% 9.52% KsQd
MP3 57.14% 47.62% 9.52% KK-QQ, 55-44, KQs, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8s7s, 8c7c, 7d6d, 7s6s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQo

This is with 7 bluffing combos, with 6 we still have 40%. There is also Ac4c Villain might occassionally jam worse two pair as well.

Your analysis of his bluffs is terrible. He should never jam here with missed clubs. His bluffs will be like A4/A5/56/78 and some other random combos. I think at 25NL regs will really struggle to find those combos because they have to merge turn but KQ is still probably just too good to fold. I mean actually looking again he big bets flop which makes it incredibly difficult for him to have a bluffing range OTR. There is a chance we get to fold this in practise because also quite likely that villains don't find the thin value jam with worse. KQ probably gets in there but only 4 combos for a chop. Taking big bet flop as data point I've been convinced it's just a fold. Tbh might be an easy fold

It's close man. Anyone I know can/could barrel I call. Unknown? badreg? You can just play the UTG card sometimes and bail stress-free i think

I actually folded on a similar spot on the turn against a very passive reg post flop that was utg and I was in the bb but I flopped 2 pair with QK on the flop and he pot the flop and did this big over bet on the turn twice the size of the pot and there was a flush draw out there. I think he was trying to make it like he was pushing me out with a flush draw but I knew better he was to nitty. If hes more on the aggressive side with draws you probably have go with it. But since hes utg when he over bets the turn I am pretty shre he has set of Ks or Qs. I don't see this line without a big hand from a nitty grinder. It would depend the player but I would fold the turn unless I saw this player run big bluffs with missed draws in the past over played top pair hands. But I am pretty sure your beat on the turn and basically you need K on the river or you are getting stacked off here by set of Qs. These kind of situations really depend what kind of opponent you are facing. Without reads you will have to just call it off. Your hands to strong to fold. But if its a nitty passive player this is snap fold on the turn.

Thanks for the answers!