25nl Turn decision with Top 2 pair
First hand on the table with no info on villain.
What do you do here on the Turn when the flush draw completes along with some straight draws?
Check, bet small or shove with a pot size bet ramaining?
[converted_hand][hand_history]PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
CO: $47.59 (190.4 bb)
BTN: $28.07 (112.3 bb)
SB: $54.28 (217.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $25.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $75.38 (301.5 bb)
MP: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB posts $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A♠ K♦
fold, MP raises to $0.62, fold, BTN calls $0.62, SB calls $0.52, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, BTN calls $2.38, fold
Flop: ($7.24, 2 players) K♣ 5♣ J♥
Hero bets $4.56, BTN calls $4.56
Turn: ($16.36, 2 players) A♣
Hero?
[/hand_history][/converted_hand]
7 Replies
Flop is probably a B33 bet, then you can jam turn. As played, I mean come on, you have top two in a huge pot with $2.50 behind, you would have to call it off even with AQ at this point or Q♣ Qx. If he has a flush or a str8, so be it, but even in that case you still have 4 outs.
Preflop too small. Flop size might be fine if you squeeze polar but I'd be surprised if you are executing this strategy as well as a B33 range bet. Turn mandatory range check when you go big flop
Nuts change astronomically on that turn and our range is clinging on for dear life
That said, @ spr 1 little option but to shove and pray for lower 2p
Nuts change astronomically on that turn and our range is clinging on for dear life
That said, @ spr 1 little option but to shove and pray for lower 2p
That's exactly what I did. Shoved and prayed.
A bit small preflop, a bit big on flop. Turn we are never folding, checking or betting doesn't seem to matter too much.
It's a pretty std check/call on the turn. You don't beat enough value, and w/ a roughly pot sized bet left (because of poor sizing pre and flop), you're much better off inducing a bluff or VBing river if it's checked. I think it's a pretty significant EV difference actually, vs shoving turn.
The only way this would change is if your pop massively under bluffs turn here. But it would need to be a pretty large deviation from GTO play to justify.
