5/10/20 SRP river spot.

Unless he also has an 8
I can’t understand what villain’s doing here
Maybe 33

You say he’s a strong player, so I can’t see him overvaluing a big pair other than AA in this spot and if he’s got that it’s a sick turn

Not likely playing a flush draw with a pair on board

He’s strong enough to open
He liked the board enough to bet, call the raise
I just don’t see how you can be ahead when he calls the turn. If he does have an 8, he’s surely got you outkicked

I’m learning this only recently, as I use to always barrel, but I think checking the turn makes sense in this spot. Maybe it would have led to an easier decision.

Often said, it takes a bigger hand to call than it does to bet. This guy tried to bet, but you took over and he called everything. I don’t usually tank at all, but it would have taken me awhile to find this fold.

If you say you called and he had a pair of kings, I don’t think he’s a very solid player at all.

I called and he showed J9s.

Do you think he should fold most flush draws on flop?

Yes, when you popped it to 250, you gave him the wrong price to continue on the flop. Calling the turn was crazy too. There’s not much you could have done to stop it.

He got there this time, but

People that chase straights and flushes
Arrive on planes and leave on buses

Grunch:

PRE - if our read is that V is solid, I might just fold, even getting these odds.

FLOP - I think we can raise bigger here. We're OOP and have the widest range pre. Think we could go at least $350 after the BB calls.

TURN - ugly card, but I wouldn't absolutely hate it. V can have a lot more combos of AX than AA. He could have AXss that picked up a lot of equity, or just a ton of flush draws.

I don't like the half pot bet. It's giving his draws too good a price. If we had raised bigger on the flop, this would be an easy over-bet jam. As it is, we have slightly less than 2x pot. I think I'd still jam.

RIVER - yuck.

It's an interesting card. A couple of our 8x combos would be 87s that just boated up, but of course the FDFD comes in. I wonder if a block bet just looks too much like 8x rather than 87.

I think his range is mostly flushes and AX. We played our hand pretty face up, so it's possible his AsXx may jam as a bluff. Some opponents who get to the river this way are happy to check back with AX and some lower flushes, so I might just check-fold.

Wait...just J9s, or J9ss for the flush?

As the PFR, I wouldn't fold a good draw to a small x/r on 883. If instead of a 3 it was any card that makes it more likely you flopped a boat, like 887 or 889, I'd be more likely to fold.

I would definitely fold J9, if it wasn't J9ss. We started a little too deep, and there are too many turns that will increase our equity for me to fold J9ss on the flop.

I'd probably fold turn, even for half pot. But maybe not when the turn is an ace. I'd think you'd be checking a lot of rivers if he just calls, opening the door for him to bluff.

think you could just call the flop for game plan reasons but if you chose to raise id go smaller

river hand reading logic seems pretty off to me. ace into a bluff lol. probably you have bluff catcher so i guess call whatever frequency you need when u get here like this, though this is almost certainly the bottom of your range and likely you're better off calling linearly based on the stregnth of kicker so you dont get rekt by higher trips

mostly think you're overplaying your hand though 3 ways / vs button by the time all the money goes in once u raise the flop esp to this size

Playing off what submersible said - suited three-card gappers don't play well post-flop, especially OOP. They can't make the nut straight, can't make the nut flush, and can't make strong trips. Short of making a straight flush, we're praying to make a vulnerable boat.

When we flop weak trips with 84s, I don't understand why we'd want to raise small and make this a three street game, when we don't know what cards we're hoping to dodge. I'd rather jam 2x pot on the turn than get to the river with an awkward 0.65 SPR.

I understand calling down linearly based on our kicker. But when it seems like V's value range has a ton more flushes than better 8x, it feels like we're mostly just pulling at the margins of EV.

Maybe we avoid getting coolered by better trips some small fraction of the time when we check-fold. But we're going to be shown a flush or boat the majority of the time when we check-call.

We can mostly avoid this spot by folding 84s, 85s, J8s, and Q8s pre. So we jam A8/87, check-fold 98s, and check-call with T8s.

Circling back to the idea of blocking the river, it's hard to do if V doesn't think you'd also block with the rest of your value range. If you're unbalanced, and only blocking with thin value, planning to fold to a raise, V can literally turn everything that doesn't beat weak trips into a bluff.

Just guessing from Sub's response that flatting the flop is what our range wants to do, because raising trips+ and our NFD's is inherently unbalanced. Not sure what the rest of our continuing range looks like.

I suppose if we're just flatting the flop maybe we can call wider pre, and show up on later streets with more strong hands. I'd still mostly fold 84s-86s and T8s-Q8s when we're less than 100 straddles deep to start.

Just seems like the continue range is so heavily weighted towards trips+ and the NFD that we'd want to pile it in on early streets when we're starting out with shallow stacks.