Feeling squirrly how much to bury your fourth nuts by this river?

Fold. You overbet and got shoved on by a good player. Not sure I overbet.

snap call. He's described as a lag capable of running insane bluffs and literally the only hand that makes sense for value that beats you is KK

Sigh-call and hope for diamonds.

It would be an insane bluff, because when you overbet you should have a boat or nothing.

Clues
Nit folded to LAG, so he’s not a problem
When BB just calls the turn, you got to figure he’s somewhat capped.
He probably thinks you have AK and never dreams that you’re this strong.

River Shove
You have pretty good evidence that the six couldn’t help him much, unless….
The only thing that makes sense is he made the flush and thinks he’s good.

This seems like he wants you to fold with this sizing. The last bet was 35 and now he wants you to call 900 - just doesn’t seem like a value bet.

I think it’s a call, but he may have your number again. It’s very hard for me to tell just what villains think of you (and your image) in these posts.

Meh if the guy runs crazy bluffs on you, I think you should probably call. Sucks because I dunno what he thinks you have, but would you ever make a move with air or overbet nut flush here? I guess I default to folding IRL because no-one bluffs like this at 1/3 and I think KK is the likeliest hand but it would depend on how crazy I think he is. Like say he puts you on the flush and wants to make you fold.

dont really think turn bet is good, dont think river is that great sizing wise either (if u want to overbet id go bigger). meh. tough one now. probably call sometimes but i think this is generally incredibly underbluffed

Does he know it's your last hand? Regardless, I sigh-call. I can't imagine he plays a better FH (or quads) this way.

Good players, by definition, are capable of bluffing.

From Vs perspective, H shouldn't have many combos of boats here. H isn't checking Kx or 2x here, H isn't limping in with KK. So H has 99, 66, 22, and that's it for boats+. And is H only betting half pot with a boat OTT? So if V has a naked Ad it's a natural stack off trying to bluff out small FDs. If V has the nut flush, it's a natural value play targeting Qx FDs.

V is a "crusher" not a nit who is only jamming the nuts on the river. Vs play is a bit odd for KK or 99. Occasionally, maybe we run into quads, and V was just giving us the best opportunity to catch or bluff. But really, I think V has Adx here a ton, and we beat all those hands.

I'm calling it off.

The SPR on the turn vs H is like 13-1, when V makes the decision to check turn. After flop checked through three ways. That V didn't bet K22dd after opening from the BB to 25 over 3 limps is a little odd too. I can kinda see a Kings-Full holding V being OK with letting flop check through, but they're going to want some money for this hand, right? They're just going to assume it won't get checked through or bet for 1/2 pot? Even if both V's call for 35, SPR's still like 5.5 v Banana on the River. I just don't see many LL villains accepting, "Oh well, guess the others didn't have anything," and not pushing the betting on the turn.

Basically, if they had the patience to wait until river, not knowing if a flush or two straight cards would show up or not, and knew B enough to know he'd blast off on river regardless, they kinda deserve his stack, IMHO.

Long winded way of saying I agree with Java here, ROFL.

That being said, if this guy is as good as advertised, he would know that Nanner is going to bloof at it sooner or later.

Grunch:

Reads - change seats so V isn't two seats to your left. Or even better, change tables. This sounds like a semi-terrible game with the crusher and the hyper nit.

PRE - watch you don't give away those tells.

I'd still open 66. If UTG limp-3B's, we lol-fold. We'd like to thin the field a bit and clean up some equity.

When BB raises, and gives a speech, what did he say? If we know he saw our tell, I might be tempted to come over the top. I really don't like double flatting pre.

FLOP - checking back seems okay. I might bet small, like $20-$30. Seems like our opponents are likely to play pretty face up here.

TURN - as played to this point, if we're going to start a bet now, I'd want to size up, betting at least pot, maybe 1.5x pot, to rep a polar range.

RIVER - your over-bet seems fine. I might actually go larger, like 2x pot.

Don't think I could fold here. He's repping super narrow, just KK/99/22 for boats/quads (seriously, 22?), but it seems more likely he has the nut flush, and thinks you have the 2nd nut flush.

Just looking at how I'd range you if I were him. You double flatted pre. You're not going to have 99/KK, or good suited aces. You're going to have A2 for flopped trips, some suited Broadway combos, and 9X. That's it. Maybe you have K9 sometimes, but not often.

He may have us beat, but I think if he flops the NFD, this is exactly how he'd play it, and he's never giving us credit for being boated up on this board when we double flat pre and start betting on the turn. All our boat combos are likely to be raised or folded pre.

It's a weird spot because you looked kind of FOS on the turn (because you were), but you boated up on the river. If he was boated up, he would probably start betting for value on the turn, or just c-bet the two-tone flop. But he doesn't have much incentive to raise turn with AXdd when you half-pot it.

He's sort of bluff-trapping with the NFD. If the flush doesn't come in, he might donk river to make you fold 9x, or check and evaluate, possibly calling it off if you bet small enough. His AXdd combos have just enough SDV that he doesn't really need to bet or raise flop or turn when your range is going to have so many worse high-card combos.

First off, I'm going to be very sus of H reads that V is a LAG crusher ... maybe he's okay and you've just seen him running great, maybe he's even good but maybe not.

I mean ... I can't imagine anyone good plays a worse hand for value. And, no I don't see anyone with a clue deciding that NFD is worth 6x+bit of the river pot size when the board was paired on the flop.

Maybe 99 bets turn fairly often, but not sure KK or 22 do. The 9 brings in a lot of draws, and showing weakness twice is going to get H to bet 66 ... so why not check the super nuts again?

Yeh, he's repping 7 combos. for value but assuming he doesn't care about H having 22 then they all look like the nuts. Any reads on what you think V is turning into bluffs here? I don't see much A2 or whatever just x/c turn, so maybe Kx that decides it can't win vs. the overbet? And if it's all Kx then obviously snap call.

The thoughts that V might decide H is bluffing the river so he needs to rebluff seem like FPS ... what hands can he have that need to rebluff?

I wouldn't overbet river, so hard to fully work out where in range H is ... are you limp/calling 99 sometimes? Is it just 66/22? Has to be a mistake to overbet/call range without reads. Maybe flip a coin and call 50% of the time?

Do the opposite of whatever your first instinct is.

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I have a few small take-aways from this hand.
-Preflop we should never iso this hand against a habitual LRR nit.

-I don’t think half pot bet accomplishes anything positive on the turn. I get very concerned when LAG players check oop as the pfr, theyre bluffing so often that it skews range towards traps and medium sdv. He gets K22fd as the pfr hes gonna bet most of his non paired stuff either on flop or turn. So we just value own ourselves vs like QQ-77 with this size.

-as played i mean if this guy is bluffing here he deserves to win the pot. Only way I would call here is if i think i beat a few value combos, and because the duece is paired im struggling to find anything. I think LAG will also find bets with NFD on flop or turn as well. It would be a pretty wild spot to run a bluff, i think you just ran into KK or 99 here. Calling doesnt seem like a punt or anything, just feels like we get shown a bigger boat at least 75% of the time.

Snapcall or stop playing poker. Not even consider folding here - you only lose to KK (99 bets turn)

Anything other than a snapcall is ridiculous.

I was poking fun with my last post, but in all seriousness I fold here.

It takes a special kind of sicko to bluff raise all in over a river overbet in a pot that up to that point was smaller and no one had showed a lot of interest in.

Tom Dwan in his heyday might find a bluff there, but if your opponent shows a bluff I just tap the table and say nice hand.

Are you basically at the top of your range? Yes. Is it highly exploitable to fold? Yes, in theory. Is he ever shoving for value with worse? No. Is he really bluffing here, ever? Really? I don't think so.

Anyone who doesn't even think about a decision should be ignored. This is absolutely far from a snap call and pretending it is is ridiculous. You want one of the most underbluffed lines in poker? This river spot is one of them.

Edit: Just to be clear, not saying it's a fold I'm still thinking about the spot but it's far from a ''snapcall or stop playing poker''.

My point was that you would think KK/22 would try to get some value before the river, right? Or at least he bets the river, especially after H bets turn. And 99 would bet the turn, probably? It's obvious that H does not have KK, so a crusher LAG could have AdKx or similar and be bluffing. If he has it, I'm thinking 22 -- but a LAG crusher should want some value along the way and not expect anyone to do the betting for him.

Definitely not an easy decision.

In reviewing these posts:
This has changed my mind. It’s so close.
People on both sides.

Making big calls is not the way to win at 1/3.

Even when strong. Maybe this is strong enough, maybe not

My new story:
It’s called leveling
Villain knows Hero!
Hero thinks he’s loose and wild
So, let’s jam our value and get paid

Regardless of this outcome,
I’m going to lean on the nature of the game in similar situations moving forward. Just because someone is highly capable of bluffing, doesn’t mean he’s doing so.

No one overbets/folds, then you say you would overbet/fold. They can't both be true.

I feel like this does a lot of influencing in people's decision to say call but no idea how much trust to put in this. It's one thing to see people bluff it's another to see people bluff shove over river overbets for 246bb vs someone who might not have any bluffs here either for this sizing.

Being capable of bluffing is nowhere near the same as bluffing in spots that nobody bluffs, ever. Like does anyone genuinely believe a reg overbets this river with anything but the nut-flush(also questionable) and boats? If the answer is no, you saying he's targetting Qx FDs makes no sense because those shouldn't overbet the river.

I don't think we can discount KK/99, 22 we probably can. Maybe this is one of those cases where villain is labeled a ''LAG Crusher'' and somehow shows up with the nut flush here.

I think fold but I'm not sure. I feel without the ''Can run insane bluffs.'' read nobody is pressing call here.

only thing i keep thinking about with this hand is if he can have k2ss from pre in which case its auto call

poor hand reading for the most part on display itt (extraordinarily unlikely for v to play something Adqx this way as opposed to just bet given texture / ranges), v much doubt he xjams 250bb or whatever on the river light esp vs overbet and also unlikely he plays a fd like this as opposed to betting either flop or turn or going for x/r

dc what villain description is he is a random guy grinding 1/3. would not overreact to crusher / runs sick bluffs and think lol i can call here because hes good. i doubt most people at midstakes ever run a bluff here with SDV (he c/c the turn and doesnt elect to cbet the worlds most obvious board) when their opponent overbets the river repping polar / very little, let alone ssnl guy. you can get angry i am not taking reads literally but at some point u r grinding like 1/3 in texas or something not the cash game world champtionships