5/5/10 Live – Turn Decision w/ Flush vs Action Player

think you are asking alot of exploitative questions on a 0% line w minimal reasoning provided

i would call and see the river but never get here this way

think pre is not very good

Its live poker, the whole game is a series of exploit lines. How is this a 0% line? Donk turn when flush completes as the pfc is a relatively common spot.

Super disagree about preflop. I think its a pretty massive EV punt to fold 98s to a 4x open from a whale at this depth. We rarely get squeezed out and this guy is just going to make huge errors post that we love to see at 250+ straddles eff.

Grunch:

PRE - seems like we should raise or fold. I guess we can flat at some frequency if we know the BB and straddle aren't prone to squeezing, but it still seems like a leak to flat from the SB.

FLOP - so he's over- betting on the flop? I dunno, and this might be really bad but I might make a super nitty fold. Just thinking if our read is that his RFI range is really tight then we're going to have to fold a lot of hands that aren't strong and aren't drawing to the nuts when he uses a large c-bet size.

TURN - I don't hate the donk, but I think we're folding out a lot of hands we want to keep in. If we bet 3/4 pot and he raises small like this, I'd be very concerned. He could maybe have KdKx, but I don't like this spot.

I think checking again with a T-high flush and a one-outer to the stone nuts might be better than donking.

If I'm doing the math right, we'll have 1 SPR on the river? If our read is that he isn't creative on later streets, I guess we can call and check river. Raising seems like it would be over-playing our hand.

if you're in the straddle, sure. you're playing vs 7-10% of hands oop with 2 left to act with a hand that doesn't flop particularly smooth facing a 4x w likely high rake. doubt its winning and if it is i think massive ev punt is a large exaggeration

turn global is around ~10% for b65 but your range likely weaker and v's range stronger than the sim i ran would indicate

vs raise

fwiw i nodelocked this to lead to show what it would do vs raise but this is likely a larger ev error to lead incorrectly polar here than pre could ever be. i am open to this hand being good enough to stack off vs fish esp when he pots the flop (likely to be protecting something) and conceivably lead is a good way to do that but i think pot or geo is superior to b65 if thats what you want to do

am looking at 300bb cev ep vs sb vs bb 6 handed sims and then adjusting pot / stack. dont have the heart to try to make up ranges although maybe it affects stuff here

Its going to be near impossible to node lock the different kinds of postflop mistakes whale players will make at 200-300+ straddles eff. Direct SC and PP are going to perform very well, even oop, when these guys will just put infinite money in with top pair or an overpair its going to be profitable.

Probably not too useful to go deeper into the weeds with node locking this spot. Good input though about turn donk sizing, 9 high flush is too weak to go for xr and donking will minimize fold equity so geo size has to be a better line. Esp if my assumption holds true that the AK AA even with no diamonds will not be folding.

Result: we call the turn raise the river is 9x (brick), we check, and action player checks back AdKx

This got me thinking about whether there is a better line for this type of spot, if this player type is never bluffing river IP theres probably a better way to get more momey into the pot with a vulnerable flush

Not sure of the action preflop; did Villain RFI as mentioned, and to how much?

Kinda wanna checkraise the flop with a billion outs vs. AK.

Sure, he could have made a higher flush, but he could have the naked king of diamonds on a semi-bluff with AK or KK (would he flat the straddle?) or probably something worse, like KQ or KJ. Can’t be sure, but I think he’s got some kind of made hand.

It’s also very possible that he’s got something like 2pair and no diamond worried about another diamond on the river.

Honestly, I don’t get anything out of the tank-raise read, maybe I’m missing something.

I don’t like the lead on the turn.

The part about him always having value on the river is concerning, but it’s hard to let go of a five-card made hand.

This is a decision where a read may be the deciding factor. I have no idea what villain thinks about you. Does he think you’re not going to think he’s bluffing with this move? Has he seen you fold to pressure? Does he think you’re inelastic and will call his monster? Otherwise, it doesn’t look like value, but more like he’s trying to get you to fold.

I don’t think I would call this bet on the turn.

I’m either going to shove all-in, or fold.
Against people playing way too many hands, I lean toward aggression, but you’re risking the maximum.

I might tank, raise like he did. I might fold.
I would be (not staring) but taking my time, maybe making a joke, definitely trying to assess his comfort level.

Eventually, I would make a decision and not look back.

Preflop seems like a big punt. Turn is an easy jam since he won’t bluff rivers.

what if we b10 otr. have also seen people blow up vs minbet in similar spots lol

i dont think we know hes never bluffing the river. AdKx seems like an ok Ad to give up, if he checks back AdJx or AdQx i think its more likely to be a correct or reasonably correct conclusion

is interesting hand though w bunch of possible lines you could take. lead flop the most clear alternate line to me

I think a lot of this comes down to how likely you think he is to raise turn with a hand like AdKo, which is only two combos, vs only raising turn with the nuts, and if he's capable of bluffing the river at any frequency.

Your read is that he's capable of getting creative on early streets. But a turn raise with AdKo is dicey, and if it doesn't work out for him, he may not do it all the time. He may start delaying his turn aggression until the river.

So, if we think he ALWAYS raises turn with AdKo, and NEVER bluffs river bricks, but he'll also raise turn with the NF, at least SOMETIMES, and he'll ALWAYS value-bet the river, we should bet-call turn and check-fold river.

But if he starts mixing turn raises with turn calls with both his NF's and AdKo combos, and / or he starts bluffing the river with the naked Ad, it gets harder for us to play 98s from OOP. If he's capable of figuring out that you're going to bet-call a raise on the turn, but you'll bet-fold on the river, he can start raising turn more, and barreling on the river.

If you want to get more money into the pot by donking for a larger size or bet-3B'ing, you'll have to accept the risk that you could be value-owning yourself by donk-raising into the nuts sometimes. I'd think to make that profitable, you'd have to be convinced he's never going to adjust by barreling the river with bluiffs.

I'd think your strat development could benefit from experimenting with a turn check-raise, and a river donk, to see how he responds in each line. Does he bet-fold to the turn x/r or 3B? Does he ever spaz-raise over your turn donk as a bluff? Until you know, it seems impossible to know what your most profitable line is going to be.

Also maybe look for sizing tells. That $800 raise size might be something he does with AdKo, but with the NF he may make it $1200, allowing us to bet-jam over the small raise and bet-fold vs the large raise.

his turn raise is for sure the biggest error in the hand so i think you're right to figure out how to try to exploit it tbh. seems like guy that raises inappropriately ott is also going to bet these hands and likely continue vs a raise with them as well. if i nodelock him to betting like KQ+ pure xjam with 98dd ott becomes the preferred play though the ev difference isnt huge. think its really hard to try to figure out where he's going to stumble off the path most egregiously when he's just putting in way too much money in every single node with his made hands (should be relatively likely just by looking at the flop). maybe that shifts pre to a call tbh though unclear to me

Adding to the above, if he's only taking this line with all his better flushes and only two combos of AdKo, I'd think it would not be very profitable to bet-call turn, and instead we should check-call turn and check-fold river, simply because he doesn't have enough bluff combos.

If he also takes this line with KK, our line starts getting better. If he's also doing this with AA, more AK combos, or anything else, it may become very profitable. Basically he has to be over-playing more thin value hands or just finding more bluffs on the turn, but always shutting things down and checking back the river.

I'd think most opponents aren't going to find enough bluff raises on the turn. If they're maniacal, they may find those bluffs and also barrel the river, creating a ton of variance for us. If this guy sees you taking this line with 98s, he may become the maniac we don't want to face.

OP is a certified coach and I am just a rec, plus I am biased by seeing the result, so not sure I should even post my two cents.

That being said, this seems to me like a classic "fold pre", even more so with the straddle on and the 4x open.

As played, if our reads are correct, V's action means: AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, maybe AdTd, KK, AdAx, AdKx. If so, we loose to 3 combos, maybe 4, and are ahead of 8. Imo, V MIGHT fold AdKx to a shove, but not AdAx and obviously not KK. At the same time, after we flat his raise, he's not betting river from behind.
This to say that, assuming we get there this way, turn looks like a shove.

But then again, the runout was about as good as it gets for us, and we still couldn't stack our fish: fold pre.

I don't understand why people keep saying this. We're 250bb deep vs an action player. Like it's just really not a fold ever with 98s.

Not going to comment on post-flop as I know the results and will be biased.

Playing deep stack and oop with a speculative hand is far from ideal, and quite often -EV, even against a fish.
Of course it depends on how bad V actually is, but the fact that we didn't stack him in this spot suggests that our edge is likely not that huge to justify the call pre, imo (yes, results-oriented).

The preflop decision really comes down to how bad at poker our opponent is and how good our strategy is. There are certain players who I will actually vpip 30%+ against their opens from the blinds when this deep. Against this specific player and in this game 98s is way in call territory. Obviously we need to be aware of the players behind us, and if we have any good regs in the last two positions we will not be able to make this call. At 2am on saturday night in the 5/5 1k cap game the good regs are scarce, its literally jello pudding behind me.

My postflop strategy can definitely be improved so I do win more EV in the future, which is why I felt like this hand needed a closer look. Preflop doesnt feel close when we can invest 3.5 more straddles to win potentially 250 straddles. The reverse implied odds are obviously a factor but these action players are pretty face up with sizings (as you can see from his flop bet) so we can get away in a lot of spots that we are on the wrong end of it. However I would still snapfold offsuit broadway like KQo AJo against this player type.

I also believe there is 0% chance this player will even have AdQx AdJx AdTx in this tree because of the big open and flop sizing. His range is carved out pretty damn narrow when he takes this flop size.

Definitely agree on that.

As far as I know: the deeper we are, the bigger the importance of playing ip, and conversely the disadvantage of playing oop.