Feeling squirrly how much to bury your fourth nuts by this river?
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
We just sat down at our normal Saturday night game and recognize most people. We're just saying hi and
Agreed. Definitely don’t believe people who say “I have a few players in my pool in So Fla that would run this bluff.”.
I have one player in my pool who will 100% run this bluff and another who might 😉
I also don't really trust the reads as described in the OP, so I don't know what the right action here is. But folding certainly isn't crazy. In fact there are many players against whom calling here is just a blunder (again, don't know if Villain is one of them). I've had a hand a few months ago where my opponent only had one logical value combination that beat me, and I even there I felt that playing for stacks was a mistake afterward (he did have the one combo). In this hand, Villain has six logical combos (three 99 and three KK), and they all make perfect sense with how Villain played. Six is six times as much as one. It's really not that crazy to fold if six combinations beat you.
It really is up to banana and his read/vibe of this player in this hand. Has V run bluffs like this before? Does he think banana will fold anything but KK, which banana obviously doesn't have? Etc.
It really is up to banana and his read/vibe of this player in this hand. Has V run bluffs like this before Does he think banana will fold anything but KK, which banana obviously doesn't have Etc.
I would generally fold, but I agree it is read dependent. Villain could have the nut flush blocker. Banana doesn't have KK, and 99 is also very unlikely due to preflop. However, really hard to get someone who overbets for value on the river to fold.
It really is up to banana and his read/vibe of this player in this hand. Has V run bluffs like this before Does he think banana will fold anything but KK, which banana obviously doesn't have Etc.
Are you folding 99 here? Not that I think B l/c's it pre.
It's another one of those, "Bluffing here is suicidal at LL," things, but when you detail the situation, everyone here wants to start folding everything that isn't the nuts. And B doesn't have the nuts here (except maybe 22, and I'd doubt that if I were V.)
So maybe a creative V has something besides the nuts? And has no SDV, because otherwise just call.
Agree with the comment that "crusher" /= speech for betting KK+.
We've had the sub solver screencaps; think it's time for results?
Just another thought -- a few messages in this thread were sort of treating bluffing here as the high-level play, like Villain could only bluff if he's very good. But I don't actually think most good players would take this bluff. Like bluffing here would probably be a -EV play because most people who overbet River don't fold to raise. A good player would need a specific read on Banana to make this bluff, imo.
What is it with this hand?
So, I think the next time I have KK, I’ll give a short speech before I open.
Does KK go check check check after that
I think weird lines make me want to call
With the six in your hand, the river couldn’t have helped him, yet this is when he shoved
Was that a slow play all the way?
I think this is a game of chicken!
No good way to establish equity
The pot odds are 30%ish, but it’s a highly polarized spot by a decent player.
I would snap call, if I felt this guy was not as skilled as you say and capable of overplaying weaker hands.
The only players making big bluffs on the turn or river are crushers at 1/3, so this guy fits.
But I picture myself in this spot with a guy I know. I have been there. I used to call and he shows me a winner, the most unlikely hand I can imagine.
But I don’t do that anymore
Fold and Live to Fold Again!
Are you folding 99 here? Not that I think B l/c's it pre.It's another one of those, "Bluffing here is suicidal at LL," things, but when you detail the situation, everyone here wants to start folding everything that isn't the nuts. And B doesn't have the nuts here (except maybe 22, and I'd doubt that if I were V.)So maybe a creative V has something besides the nuts? And has n
how can v have no sdv lol
the entire thread is 1/3 players telling u half their pop routinely runs this and they will get run over and be huge losers if they fold this (lol) and people that play higher saying its a tough spot. the sim i posted shows its a 0 ev mix and you want to call at some frequency to make v indifferent to bluffing here or i guess imroperly polarizing. 99 != 66 and i would pure call 99 without looking at the sim
Almost every single post in this thread gives bad advice. If I'm the opponent, I can raise 100% of my hands against 99% of the posters on the river, since KK isn't in your hand range and you'll fold anything but 22. Poker is still the easiest game in the world at NL1/3, because those players who think they're the regs at this level are the easiest to beat.
Almost every single post in this thread gives bad advice. If I'm the opponent, I can raise 100% of my hands against 99% of the posters on the river, since KK isn't in your hand range and you'll fold anything but 22. Poker is still the easiest game in the world at NL1/3, because those players who think they're the regs at this level are the easiest to beat.
must be time to move up
Almost every single post in this thread gives bad advice. If I'm the opponent, I can raise 100% of my hands against 99% of the posters on the river, since KK isn't in your hand range and you'll fold anything but 22. Poker is still the easiest game in the world at NL1/3, because those players who think they're the regs at this level are the easiest to beat.
All of this is cute but completely nonsensical vs the average 1/3 population. You already gave away how clueless you truly are by saying “they’ll destroy you in the long run” if you fold here. As if the average 1/3 reg is clever enough to exploit what is an incredibly rare river spot.
It’s kind of hilarious we’re supposed to believe 1/3 regs are the easiest to beat but they’re also entirely capable of bluffing here and not rarely, no, with some reasonable frequency according to some posters.
Ridiculous.
sim keeps changing depending on pre ranges i input and i wish id saved the first one i did but i didnt really think the hand was that interesting. regardless 66 is almost always 0ev / mix in gtowizard ai solve and while 99 usually is, it will call more frequently than 66. in practice id pure call the 99 as id allow some margin of error for mistakes by our opps and also u block 99 which seems signif more relevant to me in v's value range than 66. it prioritizes 9xdd > 66 for this reason but not to the degree he can merge jam nut flushes (also there just arent many of those hands in overlimp / call range). it wants v to bluff with 9x hands but man i think most air just cbets on this board. by the river we're dealing with fractional combos because its not a line that should really be taken. wish i could see why first sim was so different. here it wants bb to cbet flop pure for b25
vs
poker is hard sometimes when you're capped. the idea you're going to get run over and be life time loser while random forum warrior condescends down to u because you fold a spot that likely comes up 1 in several hundred thousand hands with a hand that mixes fold (that i have to node lock to even get to the river in this manner) is a bit wild to me but ok
Almost every single post in this thread gives bad advice. If I'm the opponent, I can raise 100% of my hands against 99% of the posters on the river, since KK isn't in your hand range and you'll fold anything but 22.
This is actually true (minus the 99% figure); you can exploit good players pretty hard by bluff-raising the river (especially bluff-check-raising, assuming they actually bet after you check to them).
It's also an inevitable consequence that adjusting to population tendencies makes you exploitable. Like literally, if you adjust that means you play unbalanced, if you play unbalanced that means it's theoretically possible to exploit you. The only unexploitable strategy is pure GTO with no adjustments.
All of this is cute but completely nonsensical vs the average 1/3 population. You already gave away how clueless you truly are by saying “they’ll destroy you in the long run” if you fold here. As if the average 1/3 reg is clever enough to exploit what is an incredibly rare river spot. It’s kind of hilarious we’re supposed to believe 1/3 regs are the easiest to beat but they’re
Unbelievable how anyone with 800+ posts is this clueless.
where we do end up pure calling is if we never have 99 from pre. is difficult sim though bc really not supposed to have this hand here (or much of a betting range at all ott if we dont have 99 / the 9xss hands). think you need some amount of boats or else he can just xjam nf (debatable if he actually has it here given line)
i struggle to figure out what to do with that when betting the turn is blunder. it still looks like the burden of defense is 9xdd hands which makes sense - theres not really any bluff combo he can come up with that blocks those (or punishes them) unless hes doing wild stuff with offsuit hands and then doing this otf / turn. but the nut flush jams really do punish that (the issue with being capped to never having a boat here if you dont bet 66 isn't that he can bluff more because we are still calling bluff catchers at whatever frequency to make him indifferent, its that we dont want to let him add more value combos to his nuts range, at least i think)
i guess we can sort of mitigate this by occasionally trapping 22 to the river
guess this all falls on deaf ears anyways
As to the sims considering 99, Banana should never have 99. A decent player would not limp behind on the button with that hand.
If V can't beat a flush, and V believes B only overbets river with flushes or better, and V doesn't have many/any flushes (which I agree with your previous posts about: V isn't playing Axdd this way)--> V has no SDV. Which is not to say V doesn't have fat value (KK, really. I can't imagine a speech with 99, nor a flop check with it from V.)
I did explain my logic in the earlier post. Which was trying to answer the earlier question raised in the thread, "What bluffs does V have here?"
If V can't beat a flush, and V believes B only overbets river with flushes or better, and V doesn't have many/any flushes (which I agree with your previous posts about: V isn't playing Axdd this way)--> V has no SDV. Which is not to say V doesn't have fat value (KK, really. I can't imagine a speech with 99, nor a flop check with it from V.)I did explain my logic in the earli
ah okok
yeah is weird hand where i think theres very little difference between j9dd and 66 in terms of beating bluffs or i guess value unless we think he has k2ss when we face this line (i dont think you really need to disincentivize him from jamming something like AQdd because i just dont believe he really takes this line on this board with it ever). i guess thats dangerous though and maybe he shows up w 66 some small amount
when i remove 99 from btn's range he no longer bluffs 9x and uses some like 44/55 hands for the x/r. idk i still just think most of these hands bet the flop and im struggling to really see why he wouldnt just hero call qq or whatever otr if he got here this way esp vs someone like op
