5-10-20 agaisnt euro pro

I would be not that happy about the wet runout on the turn and river. Would bet smaller and maybe check the river. I would call river getting 3-1, but he shouldn't bluff that much when you go pot/pot/pot. However, I don't play 10/20.

It is true he shouldn't have AA/KK/JJ. Losing to QTs and the backdoor flush.

In the SB villain flats, a Euro would know it’s mostly a 3bet/fold position, so AcJc seems it fits.

No offense, but Euro likely hand reads better than you do, so there’s a good chance he’s recognizing AK.

Everyone calls flop bets

Turn is puzzling - would he call with AJ, maybe putting you on a pocket pair, instead of AK? Now it’s starting to look a lot like 33
33 flats sb, flats all the way & bets against you backdooring the flush.

Though you improved to 2pair on the turn, the pro call there has to be strong. I would check the river. As played, I would fold

A humble 1/3 opinion

Pretty sick spot. I'm wondering if it's possible he value raises with worse, like AJ? In that case a call would be pretty mandatory. It's also probably pretty obvious you don't have a flush, so it's possible he could be turning Ax with one spade into a bluff? I don't know. I don't think I'm folding this one against a pro, but it feels like we're beat.

Regarding sizing, I would normally be sizing to try to set up a jam yourself on the river, so pretty much go a bit bigger on every street. However on the BDF completing river I think it's reasonable to be sizing down a bit to get called by worse. I think checking back would be too nitty.

if you dont think he has a donking range otr (i think this is very likely to be the case) you have basically no betting range otr (global checking freq ~93%). am looking at 150bb co open sb call but i think its relatively likely to be consistent here. its hard too because with your turn size you're not really supposed to have something like AcKx, but even that will very rarely / never open the betting if i remove oop ability to lead here. oop allegedly have a STR+ 35% (FL 28%!) of the time so i think it becomes relatively difficult for you to bet anything for value esp since most of his flushes are going to be axcc given pre ranges

if i do give him a leading range otr ip betting frequency goes up to 28% but this hand is still pure checked. though AcKx gets in there more often.

ranges and your sizings (solver prefers larger otf / ott fwiw) mostly constrict him here to flushes by the time another bet goes in. think about it. if he has a flush 1/3 of the time, and you pot the river, he gets to fold half of his range so when money goes in otr he is going to have a flush 2/3 of the time. there's just no way you can effectively valuebet vs that when most of his flushes are axcc

turn sizing already has him indifferent w AQ and KJ

if axcc wasnt possible and a different bdfd got there it becomes a different hand imo. also if he's in the bb and can have a wider range pre

I'd fold - he'll never jam worse for value, you're uncapped, there's no draws that didn't get there, he has no perceived fold equity.

What does SBs range look like? Just curious.

Grunch:

PRE - I don't know what the standard raise size is in this game. But your sizing seems fine.

What pro is flatting from the SB in a three blind game? That doesn't seem very professional.

FLOP - not sure, but I think your c-bet size is awkward. I think we could check back, bet small, or over-bet. The $100 into $130 doesn't do much to define his range. He could have AJ/A3, or some AX with a BDSD or BDFD.

TURN - I was somewhat concerned V could have AJ/A3 on the flop. But now we have those hands crushed. I like the over-bet, but I think we should go even bigger, like 2X pot. He could call with aces up, but he could also have some combos that picked up a draw.

RIVER - yuck.

What hands are we targeting for value with our river bet sizing? Think we could either check it back, because we've run out of value, or bet smaller, like $600, to get a crying call from worse AX.

Hard to find the hands he'd want to x-jam for value that flat call pre and check-call flop and turn. AJcc maybe. Maybe ATcc. How much AXcc does he have that flats pre and continues past the flop? Have to think some / most of his trashy AXcc combos are folding when we c-bet $100 into $130.

Maybe he just has some AcXo combo for a bluff. Hard to imagine he thinks he can get us off a thick value hand here. Does he do this with AcJx?

It's close. Don't think it's a total spew to call. But I think we may be better off folding.

Just seems that most worse AX is going to fold turn. The AX that gets to the river is going to be AXcc or some AcXo combo that V thought had enough equity to continue past the flop, and there just aren't that many combos that make sense in this line.

We bet so big, three times. Most opponents aren't going to check-jam and give us these pot odds with a bluff.

You make a pretty strong case. A river check back could be best. I'm also curious what preflop range you're putting him on? I think that's kind of a key factor.

Like if you look at a presolved SB range vs CO open (in a single blind game) the highest frequency Ax flat is A8s. Most of the stronger Ax like AQ, AJ and AT that we would be targeting for value are 3-betting and therefore not in his range.

However I think a human could be flatting those stronger and offsuit aces at a higher frequency. That is especially likely in a three blind game. There is more chance of getting squeezed after flatting so you would presumably want to flat more strong hands. That's if you have a flatting range at all. I would probably be playing 3-bet or fold.

Anyway that range assumption was factoring into my recommendation to continue betting river. However thinking more about it now, due to the SPR it might not be worth reopening the action.

I'm still skeptical that he has as many flushes as you're suggesting though. I would think a lot of the strongest and weakest suited aces, along with suited Broadways and many suited connectors would be 3-betting pre so his range wouldn't be that flush-heavy.