Feeling squirrly how much to bury your fourth nuts by this river?

I thought KK due to the speech and possible slow play. Maybe not the LAG crusher.

I don't think anyone would fault you whatever you did to the push.

Of all the suggested hands this has certainly got to be the least surprising one.

Quoting this as a contender for dumbest post of the year. Thanks for your pm btw. First time someone sent me a pm to try and convince me I suck at poker.

i honestly think the river is less of a takeaway than the turn. the turn is legit burning 95% of your bet given the action

i dont think this hand is really the blender

I don't need a PM to know I suck at poker.

Banana reads got me again.

In my defense, I keep trying to figure out which information op gives is going to end up being the most relevant.

Good LAG? Crusher? Speech? UTG likes to limp 3B?

In a million years, I'd never expect Banana to be boated up here, if I was V.

Once Banana overbets the river, then he has a boat a lot. Either that or he is bluffing or overplaying a flush. But really the only boat he can have is 66, maybe 99 if he has really afraid of a limp/3!.

If V is giving OP 66 on the river, then he's got to think OP is stabbing turn with literally everything. A range of everything can include 66. So, yeah, I guess he can have some boats.

But c'mon, he's not going to have many boats. It's literally only 99 and 66.

He'll have many more flushes here, plus a bunch of complete air, when he only stabs turn for 1/2 pot.

You mean it's not the blender because he had a full house so it's more of a cooler? Fair enough. I was speaking more in general with that comment about avoiding capping your range when possible against good lags. They earn their win rate by attacking in those spots with a polarized range.

That is actually something I've realized that I never really hear discussed. The player with the polarized range is in an advantageous position over the player defending with a condensed range. Now you're going to have to play both spots. That's just poker. Sometimes you've got to defend your big blind or whatever. However, if you can maximize the times you're the one with the polarized range that will generally improve your win rate.

Regarding the turn bet, yeah we all kind of glossed over that but it was probably the "big mistake" made in the hand.

I would think he could probably also get away with over betting the nut flush too, in late position after the checks from the other players. But yeah if I was in villain's position I would read banana's overbet as nut flush, 66, 22 or a bluff. So if I was in villain's shoes I would only call river with the nut flush. If banana had bet smaller on the river, like 2/3 pot, then I would think it would be more likely villain might value raise with the nut flush.

any flush is strong enough to overbet

i dont think the hand is a cooler

i dont think banana has a boat otr very often at all but i dont think that matters. if you still dont get why this v doesnt have a flush w his line (to get to the river, not even the x/r part of the hand) i dont think i can help u

You understand the difference between longrun and a single hand? lol 😂

A lot of us continue to consider….

Nobody bluffs
When I look around the table at 1/3, there’s usually maybe one person capable of bluffing and he’s never bluffing in a spot like this.

They don’t bluff, but they do misvalue their hands. For instance, they shove when they hit the flush not realizing the paired board means they could be beat by someone with a boat.

But a good player doesn’t make those kinds of mistakes. I once told a crusher, I know you’re not bluffing me. His response: yeah, but I’m the only one at this table that could be.

Obviously, we do get bluffs through at times. But few good players would attempt a bluff like this, unless they were really locked in on their read of Hero.

The problem with this hand is not knowing what villain expects from hero. If villain expects a call, villain’s 99 hit on the turn and hero will be disappointed. If villain expects a fold, he could have anything.

If you think villain would play AK this way, it will be hard to fold. A lot of people would run this line, but not sure why he’d check the flop.

The bottom line is there are not many hands better than yours in this spot, so I wouldn’t fault anyone thinking call. There’s actually a good chance he’s repping a slightly worse hand than yours.

But my one player at the table capable of bluffing, no matter how unlikely it would be, would show me the nuts every time. Been there, done that.

I’m disappointed I didn’t get a PM telling me that I suck at poker.

Yeah I guess I have to spell it out for you because you’re a little slow. I laugh at the idea anyone will get exploited at 1/3 overfolding this river spot.

You just keep snap calling here little man.

I would have folded this, but it would be really bad to fold face up.

In my defense, if there's history between V and hero, such that V knows hero's game, I can see V taking this line with the NFD, on this type of board, expecting hero to stab at it a lot, and also expecting hero to under-fold to V's c-bets.

I wouldn't have discounted boats had we not gotten the LAG / speech read.

If I was V, I'd think hero would be at least somewhat likely to stab flop with any PP when V checks K22 two-tone, but also think hero would take the free card with all his un-paired hands, and then stab turn with pretty much everything when action checks to him twice.

Kudos to V for trapping with the 2nd nuts. He got very lucky that hero made a hand as strong as he did. I'd hope Banana would be able to fold a non-nut flush to the river check-jam.

its important you understand this because this isn't hyperbole, unlike the nonsense earlier in the thread.

if you stab here as ip with 66 or think its a good play otf you quite literally will never be able to have a chance vs anyone remotely competent / ever move up. if you dont get it, keep rereading the posts in this thread until you get it. you have absolute 0 fold equity vs described villain given pre ranges and him electing to check this flop. pls dont continue posting about how maybe this time is different, it isnt

this isnt well my style, or sometimes i mix it up or whatever, you are just burning substantial amount of your flop bet and if you can't identify this type of spot in real time or at bare minimum in study environment afterwards you are just going to get annihilated by anyone trying to win. it really is like the absolute most basic hand reading scenario i can think of.

Called it

Literally never said anything about approving of stabbing with 66 on flop. No idea why you're going on about it as if I did.

You are implying that the preflop raiser would cbet K22 with air, so when he checks, he isn't checking to check/fold?

Yup. Shocker.

My rule postflop vs very aggro players is to basically assume they are trapping the nuts when they check multiple times in a hand as the pfr then make an aggressive action on the river (esp on boards that are favorable to their range)

if they are good and its situation they can cbet 100% and know it and choose not to its always sdv / trap. here its probably always trap tbh given texture and how little kx compared to like 55 that overlimpers are perceived to have

Submersible does a good job explaining flop and turn but I think an additional point to remember is that we should respect these rivers spots exactly for what they are. Never bluffed.

I'll leave you guys with some more wisdom. Mind you, this comes from the guy who called us all bad and apparently incapable of moving up while trying to convince us this river spot is a SNAP CALL.

Villain's shove is technically for about 1.4x pot over what will be in the pot after he calls the overbet. However, he would have to be shoving 940 into what was a 145 pot as a bluff, expecting hero to overbet for value and fold. Most people would let hero take the 145 pot.

I thought KK partly because of the speech. Some regs do it as a reverse tell, but it is a classic tell of close to the nuts. Villain may not be as good as hero thinks, as most pros would know not to do that.

Then an aggressive player doesn't cbet K22, and then comes alive wanting to get stacks in on the river. He could maybe check 99 on K22, but KK is more likely for various reasons.