1/2: This $500 river overbet haunts me even after 5 years
This hand I played 5 years ago randomly bothered me today so I decided to post.. probably the hardest decision I’ve had in a 1/2 game
$1/$2 NLH, ~$1k effective
HJ is a very competent 2/5 pro (slightly drunk but still playing solid). There’s no 2/5 running so we’re playing a 1/2 $500 max. What makes this hand stand out is that he almost never limps preflop, yet he does so here.
V open limps HJ,
BTN recreational player raises to $15,
Hero is in the BB with Q♦9♦ and calls (I know this is marginal OOP and folding is fine),
HJ calls
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Flop ($45): Q♠ 3♦ 2♣
Checks all around.
At this point BTN checking back caps his range somewhat.
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Turn ($45): 7♦
Hero checks again like a donkey
HJ checks again
BTN bets $30
I call with top pair + a diamond draw.
HJ now raises to $150.
BTN snap folds.
I call.
This raise really confused me. There are basically no 2-pair combos available, and while HJ could limp/call 22 or 33 pre, I find it hard to believe he’s double-checking a flopped set — especially three-way instead of going for value vs draws/Qx. On the other hand, he’s very capable of identifying that BTN’s range is capped once he stabs turn after checking flop, and my call in between is also weak and capped.
Because of that, I thought this could easily be a raise with backdoor diamonds, small pairs like 44–66, or even random hands like 54s / 65s, turning them into bluffs with the intention of taking it down right now with a huge 5x raise.
I felt my hand was strong enough to continue: I have top pair, a decent kicker relative to the situation, plus the diamond draw.
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River ($375): 7♣
The river pairs the 7, which felt fairly insignificant.
I check.
HJ tanks for about 2 minutes (not sure what to think of it) and then overbets $500.
This is where I got really stuck.
I almost never see overbet river bluffs at 1/2, especially after a turn raise. At the same time, HJ knows I’m a tight reg, that I don’t have overpairs or boats in my range here, and that my range is mostly Qx or missed diamonds. From his perspective, he can definitely put me on AQ/KQ/QJ-type hands and try to fold them out with this sizing.
If he’s bluffing, this seems like the exact hand class he’d choose — missed diamonds or hands with no showdown value that raised turn specifically to set up a polar river.
On the flip side, if he’s value-betting, it’s basically only 22 or 33, which now boat up. But does he really double-check a flopped set here and then go for a huge overbet on the river?
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• I know this line is massively under-bluffed at live 1/2, making it a straightforward fold, but this guy is a 2/5 pro so I guess it changes things?
• Is this actually a good spot for a competent reg to overbet bluff, given how capped my range looks?
• How much weight would you put on the unusual preflop limp from HJ?
Curious how others would approach this spot, especially from a range vs population perspective.
16 Replies
Fun one. I'll play along.
First of all, yes this does look like a good spot to bluff from villain's perspective. Both of his opponents are pretty well capped, if not totally so. That being said your turn call seems pretty straightforward with top pair plus the flush draw.
The river is where things get interesting. First of all I don't think I would view the 7 as a total blank. Facing a bet and a call, villain can't really call with a 7, but he could potentially bluff with one. It's sort of a five out draw to 2-pair plus. I wouldn't expect him to have a ton of 7s here, but he could have some (he could also have turned a set of 7s). A 7 is also beneficial as a blocker because he blocks turned sets and two-pair. So yeah he can definitely have 7x.
On the river there are a few things that stand out to me.
1. Having diamonds in your hand and blocking missed flush draws is not ideal. The blockers make your hand a less than ideal bluffcatcher.
2. The timing tell to me suggests value. It's rare for someone to tank that long and then bluff. They'll get scared that tanking made them look weak, and chicken out most of the time. I think the tank actually makes 7x his most likely holding. A 7 would have to think about the spot whereas a full house would have a pretty easy jam.
So I likely fold river. That's easy to say right now reading this, knowing this is a hand that haunts you and you likely lost. In game against a guy who's been drinking I might still call if I feel like he's FOS.
Oh yeah, regarding how to interpret the preflop limp... I would weight him heavier towards small pairs and suited connectors, but it's hard to have much confidence in that read when it's the first time you've seen him limp. I would assume he has sets and 7x in his range though.
1st is you telling us he's a $2-5 reg is this susposed to mean he has some skills/ knowledge ? assuming this
if he puts you on missed flush draw , overbet is worthless , he could bet $20 and you would fold .
if you had a 7 here from BB he would expect you to bet river .
So his bet to me seems to be targeting weak Q's to get them to fold , rare limp/call pre from V , I think 44,55,66
Fold pf. You're facing an unusual play from the strongest player at the table and a raise with a RIO hand OOP. Not going to link limon's Random Shyt thread again, but you're in the cell with Billy which is why you fold pf.
Yeah the preflop call is super losing, not marginal. Flatting 7.5BB with worst position; yuck. 3betting this would be okay though.
But putting that aside, I agree line from V makes much more sense as a bluff than anything else. I don't think he needs diamond draws to do this; you can probably do this with any two cards and it should be profitable. BN bet after it checked to him twice, and you capped your range by flatting, this is just a logical spot to make a pure bluff, and when you call again, it's a logical spot to bluff again. Only if V is actually good though; against 80% of players this is an easy fold.
Fold pre
I don’t assume anything with his limp as he may have picked up button was going to raise
In my opinion, his most likely hand is a pair of sevens. He would check that on the flop
He hit the turn and bet his hand
He was stuck for a moment when he hit quads on the river, trying to decide how much you would call. It may not be this exact scenario, but you’re playing a hand you should have folded pre, hit top pair no kicker and if you don’t fold now, nothing can help you.
He knows you have top pair
He knows he’s not repping anything with the action and it looks bluffy
He’s got the nuts and bet his hand
I just think you are trying to justify getting yourself in a mess being in there with a weak hand.
Yeh, as others said ... raising to 7.5bb means you can/should just fold/3bet almost everything. You can obviously still win, but even if V never limp/3bets it's going to be a bad call.
On turn I'd range V on 33/22 as the obvious limp/call and now I hit bingo hands, maybe 77 if he decided to play it "weird" and maybe something like QJ/QTs that played weird for some reason and assumes it's in front right now (correctly). Then A5d/A4d/A2d and maybe Kd2d, and if he doesn't care about the stakes and is treating it as entertainment (higher stakes player tilt) he might have the more fishy 6d5d/6d4d/5d4d hands.
The problem is that you are pretty deep and even if you are ahead you need to make it to showdown ... and you have no good outs. Ad/Kd are the best two cards in the deck for you and that happens ~4% of the time. A654 all make straights and NFD hits on the A, Kx is an overcard, J/T will have you worried about two pairs, 7x has you worried, 2x is an obvious pair+FD combos. So you want Ad/Kd a 9 or maybe an 8, even if you shrug call all diamond rivers that's still only 15 outs to showdown ... or hope he doesn't bluff.
River is a great card to bluff, as you probably mostly have Qx and big flush draws. But that doesn't mean it isn't heavily value.
I actually don't see him having a 7x much, as it makes no sense to raise turn with any 7x unless it's somehow two pair.
tl;dr Fold pre; fold turn; probably fold river
Grunch:
PRE - don't know what to think about his open limp. Somewhat wonder if he thought someone else limped in front of him and he was over-limping. It happens.
When action gets to us in the BB, I'd be tempted to 3B to get HU with the rec on the BTN. Flatting and folding also seem reasonable, but I don't like our position relative to the PFR when we flat. We'll be next to act if he bets post flop, and we'll have V behind us with an uncapped range.
FLOP - check in flow seems pretty standard. But when action checks through, I think we can start betting on some turns.
TURN - we have a decent top pair and picked up a flush draw. BTN capped his range when he checked back the flop. I don't hate checking here, to see if HJ stabs at it, but I think we can just come out and bet our hand for value. If we bet, I'd probably pot it.
The HJ x/r into multiple opponents is interesting. He checked twice, so part of me thinks he's FOS. But turn x/r's tend to be under-bluffed in general. I'd think a turn x/r into multiple opponents is really under-bluffed.
Going back over the whole hand from pre-flop, trying to range him...did he open limp QQ in the HJ, planning to 3B? Seems unlikely. Doubtful he's open limping 77. 33 and 22 make some sense. Maybe also some combo that had some sliver of SDV before the turn went bet-call, but also picked up a draw, like A2dd.
Hard to range him, but that's the range I'd be giving him mostly - 33, 22, and A2dd. And as I think about it, A2dd seems more likely to go for a check raise here, once we call. I'd think 33/22 wouldn't want to risk action checking through again, and would just bet when we check to them.
RIVER - the 7c doesn't really change anything, unless we think we can rep a hand like Q7 and make him fold 33/22 with a jam. That seems pretty optimistic.
He's got six combos of 33/22 for value. I might discount that number to three or four, if I think he's going to lead turn sometimes. I think he very well might.
He's only got one combo of A2dd that makes some sense. But I could see a good player putting together that your most likely hand when you check is going to be some QXdd combo, not Q7 or 7x. If he has A2dd, then your hand is likely to be some middling QX combo.
If you have any 1P, his A2 loses. But he can make you fold just about all your 1P combos that flat pre and get to the river this way.
Maybe also he could have 32s that was slow played on the flop, but now gets counterfeited when the 7 pairs. That's two more combos we beat. That hand does make some sense here.
I dunno. It's close. He might have 3 combos we beat, and 3 or 4 that beat us. His long tank might make me think he was trying to work out if we ever show up with trips or a boat, or if we just have QX that can fold to a jam.
Not an easy decision.
There isn't a 72 bounty at this table, is there? Seems like a thing a drunk, bored, splashy reg used to 2/5-5/10 might do late.
AP, I think of GG's point about being played back at, as well as Banana's recent 4th nuts thread, and fold Queens up pretty easily. If V bluffs me, he bluffs me. I don't think we've great equity here with TP, and 77/33/22 I think are in a button's calling range as well as lol72. Though I think 77 bets the flop.
3b pre, think id block turn but dont think id fold now
7 doesnt strike me as that blank tbh
am open to tank click 3bing the turn too
turn seems overbluffed to me am less sure about river but i doubt u got better than this very often (maybe ever)
You can definitely consider 3!ing pre to iso the rec. When a fish limps I expect their hands will have a lot of strength sometimes, but when a better player does it they tend to have a lot of middling hands that want to see a flop, but don't want to face a 3!. He is very unlikely to flat a 3!, he will either backraise or fold greatly simplifying our post flop play vs rec.
On the river. I think V could have plenty of 7x. And I wouldn't completely rule out small sets. And I generally interpret taking a long time and then betting to be leaning towards value that is very strong but not nutted. Thinking a while with 7x trying to make sure he believes you can't be boated makes sense. So I'd be inclined to fold. If he jammed fairly quickly, the needle would move toward call.
Either way, I don't think the play is a major mistake if V is capable of bluffing because it is a good spot for him to bluff since H probably doesn't have 7x or boats and V could. If I were V, and xr bluff turn, I'm definitely following through on this river. So I don't think the river is a huge mistake either way, but I would probably lean fold.
I think the primary mistake was flatting the $30 OTT. Your hand is probably good and you want to get value from the A/K FDs, mid pps and 7x. So I'd r/f turn.
Obvious fold pre. I might donk the turn, but if not, I raise the BTN's bet -- he shouldn't have much here. Now that V has raised it's a pretty sick spot. I actually might 4bet on the turn -- it looks FOS, but so does his raise, and it really puts the pressure on him. You'd need to be committed, though, so I understand the call.
As played, it's a table read. From my computer, I fold, but I wouldn't be here.
Without reading what others have said:
-I'm fine with calling pre, its only 3 ways, Q9s is a decent hand
-I'm fine with flop
-I'm either leading or check-raising turn, probably leading but you want to have some QX that checks twice here, a check-raise for value is reasonable especially this deep where you want to get more money in, only downside is you'll narrow their ranges to some stronger hands..so I think leading for 3/4 pot or some large sizing is preferable
-Once you call turn and HJ raises I'm not giving him much credit here, you look very weak, I would 3-bet naked diamonds but with top pair you have so much SDV..still calling feels face up
-River is probably a fold...he has 7X You don't need to defend very often and you can have a 7 here too
Looking at this again... it looks like we just have QX + a flush draw on the turn, because we would probably play 2P+ more aggressively. So if V has a counterfeited 32, he may decide the 7 is just a brick for us, and our QX will fold to an over-bet.
Alternatively, if he has 33/22, he may think QX will call a big bet on a brick river, but that seems optimistic after he raises turn. I'd think he'd bet smaller with a full house once the flush draw bricks.
The only other hands that make sense for V are Q7hh or A2dd. But it's hard to figure out what Q7 is hoping we'll have that can call. We probably don't have any worse boats here.
As played, all the combos of 33, 22, 32s, A2dd and Q7hh make sense. So he's got 7 combos we lose to, and only 3 we beat. We can debate how likely he is to play each combo, for the purposes of discounting some, but it's hard to find our way to deciding this a good call.
I would fold river and kick myself for not betting out or c/r on turn. Yes V can have 33/22 and 7x got there. Of course there are bluffs too but if he thinks you have a draw there's no need to bluff so big.
Most of the players or pros at 2/5 really aren't all that great, especially in certain parts of the country. However! When we a player moves down in stakes he will usually play fearlessly, because, obviously the money is smaller than he is used to. He might also be overly aggressive because he thinks he can just bully people off (and it is true, it becomes easier to bully). He also might want to experiment a little when the risk is lower.
A second factor is that we can use this as an opportunity to lie to ourselves. There might be spots where we should have big bluffs, but at our normal stakes we usually chicken out. We can run these plays at lower stakes to provide ourselves with false evidence that we are capable.
So... pre, I would probably fold because of the pro's limp. If he is limp RRing a portion of the time, we just give up the money. However, other than that I wouldn't worry about it. If the initial limper had been a bad, habitual limp caller, I thing your call pre would be OK, provided you are the best player in the hand.
In this case, it is probably -ev in the hand, but you gain the experience of playing against a pro from a higher stake So maybe that is worth it.
I agree you should bet the turn, very small. I'd like to induce some weird floats and spewy bluffs. We are likely losing to another queen, but with many outs. We are beating another FD, but theirs could be higher. So, there's not really anything to fear, but we don't desperately want to get piles in. That's why I kind of like trying to bring in some weird floats, bluffs.
OTR. I don't think anyone has said V might just bet a 7 on the turn with some frequency. It is probably the best hand, but it is highly vulnerable to a bunch of stuff that will fold to a bet, like KJ. Can get value from diamonds.
After checking it, it does make a decent CR candidate. It is still the best hand fairly often. (PFR bluffs, you have diamonds.) And he might, for example, get PFR to fold 99 and you to call with diamonds. Or, if you had a weak queen and PFR is bluffing, you might both fold. If you call with QJ he has outs and can still bluff the river.
He also could have diamonds himself. 56. You've also got a lot of wheel draws which are drawing to an ace as well. Those are good bluffs.
I'd probably call this river. Not overjoyed about it, but putting everything together, I think there's a decent chance he is just trying to buy the pot. If I was V with a 7, I would not bet so much as I'd want to be called by a hand like yours. Of course, he could see things differently.
We look pretty capped, the money doesn't mean as much to him, he prob thinks 1/2 players are wimps who just always fold to big bets unless they have a monster.
The reveal in 5 years?
